Instructions for using Kelly criterion
What is the Kelly criterion, and why has it gain so much attention from cricket punters and other gamblers around the world? Kelly formula, also called the Scientific Betting System, is used to compute the optimal bet size relative to the entire betting bankroll contemplating both the winning probability and win/loss ratio for a potential bet.
How will Kelly Criterion help my betting?
Kelly's strategy answers the question: How much of my money should I bet? A common follow-up question would then be: Can I apply the Kelly criterion to all my bets?
Well, the answer to the second question is no. To be able to situate a Kelly bet, there must be a betting value identified in the odds given by the bookmaker. If the back-odds are reflecting the true- or a greater probability of that of a given event outcome will occur, the Kelly formula will return zero or a negative number.
Kelly's impact on betting bankroll
The formula is rational and well structured for its purpose. By applying the Kelly criterion method properly, using completely accurate inputs, you are certain to see your bankroll grow exponentially.
The Kelly Criterion staking formula:
(BP - Q) / B
B = Decimal odds -1
P = The probability of success
Q = The probability of failure (i.e. 1-p)
Can everyone benefit from Kelly Staking?
Fortunately, not everyone has an interest in developing advanced probability prediction models for evaluating cricket odds. Betfair, the most liquid cricket exchange online are still far away from showing market efficiency in its prices. In other words, there are yet endless opportunities for professionals and rookies alike. A fresh cricket punter may impose a profitable strategy by simply following top-rated daily match predictions. By copying probability estimations made by professionals and using those in a Kelly calculator online, an amateur can also enhance a profitable bet-size strategy right from the start.
