Dhaka Capitals vs Rajshahi Warriors Prediction - Bangladesh Premier League 2025-26

Result: Dhaka Capitals won by 5 wickets. RJW 132/8 (20 ov) vs DC 134/5 (19.1 ov).

Pre-Match Probability: Rajshahi Warriors 68% | Dhaka Capitals 32%

Value Bet: Rajshahi Warriors @ 1.74 (+10.5% edge) → Lost -₹150

Match Summary

A stunning upset. Dhaka Capitals, written off as the weakest squad in the tournament, defeated the in-form Rajshahi Warriors. RJW batted first and managed just 132/8—a far cry from their 191 chase in Match 1. Captain Najmul Hossain Shanto failed to replicate his century form. Dhaka's bowling, led by the returning Taskin Ahmed, restricted RJW effectively.

The chase was nervy but controlled. Dhaka reached 134/5 in 19.1 overs with 5 balls to spare. Despite losing regular wickets, they never panicked. A team with "no match practice" and "missing star players" somehow outperformed the tournament favourites.

Analysis Review

Overestimated: Rajshahi's momentum. A single match (191 chase vs Sylhet) was treated as definitive form. One-match samples are dangerous in T20 cricket. Shanto's 101* was an outlier, not a baseline.

Overestimated: Dhaka's weakness. Called them "weakened" without Alex Hales, Litton Das, and Mustafizur. But Taskin Ahmed's return was undervalued—his experience and pace troubled RJW's top order.

Underweighted: The "nothing to lose" factor. Dhaka entered as underdogs with zero expectations. That freedom allowed them to play without pressure. RJW, expected to dominate, crumbled under the weight of favouritism.

Validated: Nothing. This was a comprehensive miss. The 10.5% edge was illusory.

Betting Outcome

Bet lost. -₹150 on Rajshahi Warriors at 1.74 odds. The "GOLDEN TIP" label was premature. Lesson learned: early-tournament form (especially a single match) is unreliable. Dhaka's perceived weakness masked Taskin Ahmed's quality. Momentum is fragile in T20 cricket.