Implied Probability Calculator
Convert between odds and probability
Enter Decimal Odds
e.g., 1.85, 2.00, 3.50
Implied Probability
—
Enter odds above
What is Implied Probability?
Implied probability is the market's view of an outcome, expressed as a percentage. Bookmakers embed their assessment into the odds. Your job is to find where they are wrong.
Odds of 2.00 on India winning implies a 50% chance. The market prices India as a coin flip.
If you believe India has a 60% chance, the market is underpricing them by 10 points. That is a +10% edge. That is a value bet.
How to Calculate
Odds → Probability
(1 / Odds) × 100 1.85 odds → 54.05%
Probability → Odds
100 / Probability 60% → 1.67 odds
Quick Reference:
- Odds 1.50 = 66.67%
- Odds 2.00 = 50.00%
- Odds 3.00 = 33.33%
- Odds 5.00 = 20.00%
Frequently Asked Questions
What is implied probability?
The market's pricing of an outcome, converted to a percentage. Odds of 2.00 = 50% implied probability. This is what the bookmaker believes. Compare it to your own assessment to find edge.
How do I calculate implied probability?
(1 / Decimal Odds) × 100. Odds of 1.85 = 54.05%. Odds
of 3.00 = 33.33%. The lower the
odds, the higher the implied probability.
What are fair odds?
The odds without bookmaker margin. 100 / Probability = Fair Odds. If you believe a team has a 60% chance, fair odds are 1.67. Only bet if the market
offers higher.
How do I find value bets?
Value = Your Probability − Implied Probability. Positive number means the market is underpricing. Calculate your fair odds, then hunt for bookmaker odds above that line.