Dubai Capitals vs MI Emirates Prediction - International League T20 2025-26

Result: MI Emirates won by 8 wickets. DC 122/8 (20 ov) vs MIE 126/2 (16.4 ov).

Pre-Match Probability: MI Emirates 60% | Dubai Capitals 40%

No Bet: Edge was -1.7% (below 2% threshold). Prediction correct.

Match Summary

Dubai Capitals batted first and struggled. 122/8 in 20 overs—well below the venue average of 156. Trent Boult was devastating: 3/18 in 3 overs. DC's vaunted batting lineup—Jordan Cox, Shayan Jahangir, Rovman Powell—all failed to fire.

MI Emirates' chase was clinical. Tom Banton produced the innings of the tournament: 101 off 59 balls (10 fours, 6 sixes). A 120-run partnership with Nicholas Pooran (40) after MIE were 20/2 sealed the game. Chase completed in 16.4 overs with 8 wickets in hand.

Analysis Review

Validated: MIE's batting depth. Flagged Pooran, Bairstow, and Waseem as key assets. Banton wasn't specifically highlighted, but the squad depth thesis was correct—when the openers fell early (20/2), MIE had match-winners to step up.

Validated: The "close match" assessment was wrong in outcome but right in principle. We gave MIE 60%—they won convincingly. The market had them at 60% too. Correct prediction, correct caution on edge.

Overestimated: Dubai Capitals' batting. Jordan Cox (Orange Cap), Shayan Jahangir, Rovman Powell—all failed. Predicted DC's bowling could dominate if MIE batted first. The reverse happened: MIE's bowling dominated DC's batting.

Underweighted: Trent Boult's impact. He wasn't mentioned in the pre-match analysis. His 3/18 set the tone—DC never recovered from his early strikes.

Outcome

No bet placed. Edge was -1.7%—below the 2% minimum threshold. The SKIP decision was correct process even though the prediction was accurate. MIE's dominant win (8 wickets, 20 balls to spare) exceeded expectations, but at 1.62 odds with no edge, the return wouldn't justify the risk. Discipline over emotion.