Desert Vipers vs MI Emirates Prediction - International League T20 2025-26
DV Desert Vipers
MIE MI Emirates
International League T20 2025-26
Desert Vipers vs MI Emirates Match Recap
MI Emirates have the edge in Qualifier 1. Desert Vipers topped the table with 8 wins from 10, but a crippling injury crisis has weakened their squad at the worst time. MI Emirates are full strength and won the most recent meeting. The winner goes straight to the final.
Team News & Match Context
Desert Vipers (8-2, 16 pts): Table toppers but hit by a triple blow. Lockie Ferguson suffered a calf injury on Dec 21 against MI Emirates and is likely OUT for this match. Shimron Hetmyer has been ruled out for the entire season with a hamstring injury. Noor Ahmad has left for SA20. Jason Roy has been called up as Hetmyer's replacement. Sam Curran will captain if Ferguson misses. The batting core of Max Holden (318 runs) and Sam Curran (285 runs) remains strong, but the bowling is depleted.
MI Emirates (7-3, 14 pts): Full strength and firing. Nicholas Pooran (267 runs, avg 44.5) anchors the batting, supported by Waseem Muhammad (293 runs) and Jonny Bairstow (246 runs, SR 146). Better NRR (+0.676 vs +0.438) shows they compete harder in close games. Allah Mohammad (11 wkts, econ 6.95) leads a disciplined bowling attack. Won the last meeting by 4 wickets on Dec 21—the game where Ferguson got injured.
Head-to-Head This Season
| Date | Result | Key Moment |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 9 | DV won by 1 run | David Payne 3 wkts in penultimate over |
| Dec 21 | MIE won by 4 wkts | Ferguson injured; MIE chased with 15 balls to spare |
Series tied 1-1, but momentum favours MI Emirates after the most recent win.
Key Player Stats (ILT20 2025-26)
| Player | Team | Runs | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holden | DV | 318 | Tournament leading scorer |
| Waseem Muhammad | MIE | 293 | SR 132, consistent opener |
| Sam Curran | DV | 285 | Likely captain, all-rounder |
| Nicholas Pooran | MIE | 267 | Avg 44.5, finisher |
| Jonny Bairstow | MIE | 246 | SR 146, explosive |
Bowling Comparison
| Bowler | Team | Wickets | Economy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Khuzaima Bin Tanvir | DV | 14 | 7.59 |
| David Payne | DV | 12 | 7.70 |
| Allah Mohammad | MIE | 11 | 6.95 |
| Lockie Ferguson | DV | - | DOUBTFUL (calf) |
Venue Analysis
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi has been batting-friendly this season. Average first innings score of 171. All 3 matches at this venue during ILT20 2025-26 have been won by the team batting first. Toss winner will likely bat.
Final Verdict
Desert Vipers' injury crisis is the defining factor. Without Ferguson (pace spearhead), Hetmyer (finisher), and Noor Ahmad (spin), their bowling lacks depth. MI Emirates have a full-strength squad, better NRR, and won the last meeting. Qualifier 1 offers a safety net—loser gets another chance in Qualifier 2—but MIE are better placed to win outright.
MI Emirates at 58% confidence is our pick.
Value Note
Bookmakers have MIE at 1.84 (54.3% implied). Our 58% assessment gives +3.7% edge. This is a solid value bet in the 2-5% range.
Stake: 50 (0.5 units) based on edge threshold.
If Ferguson passes a late fitness test, reassess—but current indications suggest he will miss.
