Noakhali Express vs Chattogram Royals Prediction - Bangladesh Premier League 2025-26

Result: Chattogram Royals won by 65 runs. CHR 174/6 (20 ov) vs NKE 109 all out (16.5 ov).

Pre-Match Probability: Noakhali Express 55% | Chattogram Royals 45%

No Bet: Edge was -2.1% (below 2% threshold). Prediction incorrect.

Match Summary

Chattogram Royals produced a dominant performance to hand Noakhali Express a heavy defeat. Mirza Tahir Baig was the star with 80 off 69 balls, anchoring the innings after early pressure. Maaz Sadaqat (38 off 27) provided support as CHR posted 174/6.

Noakhali's chase never got started. Without Kusal Mendis (confirmed out with surgery), their batting lacked depth. They collapsed to 109 all out in 16.5 overs—65 runs short. Tanvir Islam (3/39) and Mahedi Hasan (2/17) shared the bowling honours. A comprehensive 65-run victory for the BCB-backed franchise.

Analysis Review

Validated: The "chaos factor" assessment. Called this match "unpredictable cricket" with both teams in disarray. The 65-run margin doesn't reflect how chaotic this match was—Noakhali's batting simply imploded.

Validated: The SKIP recommendation. Edge was -2.1%—correctly identified no betting value. Prediction was wrong, but no money was lost. Process protected the bankroll.

Overestimated: Noakhali's overseas firepower. Johnson Charles, Mohammad Nabi, and Ihsanullah couldn't save the batting. Without Kusal Mendis (confirmed OUT), they had no answer to CHR's spinners.

Underweighted: Chattogram's stability. Despite the BCB takeover chaos, Habibul Bashar's appointment as mentor clearly helped. Mahedi Hasan led well, and Mirza Tahir Baig delivered a match-winning knock.

Outcome

No bet placed. Edge was -2.1%—below the 2% minimum threshold. The prediction was wrong (CHR won, not NKE), but the SKIP decision was correct. Chaos matches are inherently unpredictable—the lesson here is that when both teams are disorganised, confidence should be even lower than 55%. Next time: reduce confidence further for "chaos factor" matches.