Who Will Win WPL 2026? Prediction, Betting Odds & Favourites

The Quantitative Case for Mumbai Indians

Mumbai Indians. The math is straightforward.

MI won in 2023 and 2025. Two titles from three seasons. They retained their championship core: Harmanpreet Kaur (captain), Nat Sciver-Brunt (Orange Cap 2025, 523 runs), and Hayley Matthews. They bought back Amelia Kerr (Purple Cap 2025, 18 wickets) for ₹3 crore at auction.

The first leg is at DY Patil Stadium — MI's home fortress. Chasing teams have won 62.5% of T20s there. MI know these conditions. They train on them.

Bookmakers price MI at 3.85. That implies 26% probability. We calculate 33%. That 7-point gap is your edge.

WPL 2026 Outright Betting Odds

The market opened with Mumbai Indians as favourites. Current odds from major bookmakers:

Odds accurate as of January 5, 2026. Prices will shorten as the tournament approaches.

The market prices RCB at 4.50 despite losing Ellyse Perry. Perry scored 372 runs in WPL 2025. She won the Orange Cap in 2024. RCB have not adjusted their squad strength. The market has not adjusted. This is a mispricing. Avoid.

Our Probability Model & Value Bet

We built a probability model using three years of WPL data, squad strength analysis, and key player movements. The results:

Value Bet Recommendation

UP Warriorz @ 4.90 shows +1.6% edge. Below our 2% threshold. Monitor. Do not bet.

Team-by-Team Analysis

Mumbai Indians – Defending Champions (33%)

Two titles. One core. Zero weaknesses.

MI retained Harmanpreet Kaur (captain), Nat Sciver-Brunt, Hayley Matthews, Amanjot Kaur, and G. Kamalini. They bought back Amelia Kerr and Shabnim Ismail at auction.

The numbers from 2025: Sciver-Brunt scored 523 runs (Orange Cap). Kerr took 18 wickets (Purple Cap). Both return.

MI can field 10 of 11 players from their 2025 final XI. No other team has this continuity. In T20 franchise cricket, chemistry wins titles. MI have it.

Risk: Overconfidence. But Harmanpreet does not do overconfidence.

UP Warriorz – The Dark Horse (22%)

New captain. New squad. New identity.

UP Warriorz finished 5th in 2025. They retained only Shweta Sehrawat. Then they rebuilt from scratch.

They signed Meg Lanning as captain — five-time T20 World Cup winner with Australia. They retained Deepti Sharma for ₹3.2 crore — the most expensive buy in the 2026 auction and the world's No.1 ranked all-rounder. They added Sophie Ecclestone (world's best spinner) at a bargain. They bought Phoebe Litchfield as explosive opener.

Post-auction consensus: UPW won the auction.

Quantifying the Lanning factor: elite captains add 5-10% in close matches through tactics, composure, and decision-making under pressure. UPW went from cellar-dwellers to genuine contenders on paper.

Risk: New combinations need time to gel. Chemistry is unproven. High variance.

Delhi Capitals – High Variance Finalists (20%)

Three finals. Zero titles. Statistical anomaly.

DC reached the final in 2023, 2024, and 2025. They lost all three. Twice to MI. Once to RCB. They topped the table in two of those seasons. They still lost the final.

Is it choking? Or variance? Three data points is insufficient to diagnose a psychological problem. T20 finals are coin flips with skill modifiers. DC have been the second-best team three times. That is consistency, not failure. Regression to the mean favours them eventually.

What changed: Meg Lanning left for UPW. Jemimah Rodrigues is the new captain. Annabel Sutherland withdrew (personal reasons). They added Laura Wolvaardt and Alana King.

DC remain strong. But they lost their most experienced leader. Rodrigues captained India to a World Cup win — she handles pressure. Whether she can end DC's finals drought is the variable.

Risk: Captaincy transition. New dynamics. Unproven in knockout pressure without Lanning.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru – Weakened Without Perry (13%)

Title holders. Missing their best player.

RCB won WPL 2024. Ellyse Perry was Player of the Tournament — Orange Cap winner with 347 runs at average 69.4. In 2025, she scored 372 runs.

Perry withdrew from WPL 2026 citing personal reasons. Her replacement is Sayali Satghare — an uncapped domestic player.

This is not like-for-like. This is removing the engine and fitting a bicycle wheel.

The market prices RCB at 4.50 (implied 22%). Our model gives them 13%. That is a -9.2% edge — the market is wrong by almost 10 percentage points.

Smriti Mandhana must carry the batting. She is capable but has not dominated WPL the way Perry did. Richa Ghosh provides firepower. Sophie Devine adds experience. But the Perry-shaped hole is enormous.

Verdict: Overpriced. Negative expected value. Avoid.

Gujarat Giants – Outsiders (12%)

Strong roster. No finals pedigree.

GG have never reached a WPL final. They finished 4th in 2025.

They retained Ashleigh Gardner and Beth Mooney (captain). They added Sophie Devine and Renuka Singh.

Gardner is a match-winner. Mooney is a reliable opener. But Gujarat lack the X-factor that separates good teams from champions in knockout cricket.

Risk: Ceiling is a playoff spot, not the trophy.

Key Factors: Player Withdrawals & Market Impact

Two major withdrawals reshape the market:

Ellyse Perry (RCB): Withdrew for personal reasons. Perry was RCB's leading run-scorer in 2024 and 2025. Her absence drops RCB from contenders to outsiders. The market has not fully adjusted — RCB remain priced as if Perry is playing. This is the biggest mispricing in the market.

Annabel Sutherland (DC): Also withdrew for personal reasons. Sutherland was DC's batting all-rounder providing middle-order balance. Her replacement is leg-spinner Alana King — different skill set, different role. DC's batting depth is reduced.

Net impact: These withdrawals benefit MI. The two strongest rivals (RCB, DC) both lost key players. MI's squad is intact. The competitive gap widened.

Venue Analysis: Navi Mumbai vs Vadodara

WPL 2026 is split across two venues. Venue characteristics matter for outright betting.

*Limited sample size from WPL 2025.

DY Patil Stadium, Navi Mumbai (Matches 1-10)

• Pitch: Batting-friendly early. Spinners grip in middle overs.
• Dew factor: Evening matches favour chasers significantly.
• MI advantage: This is their IPL home. They know every blade of grass.

Kotambi Stadium, Vadodara (Matches 11-22, Playoffs, Final)

• Pitch: High-scoring surface. Black soil. True bounce.
• Boundaries: Short — 51m, 60m, 61m. Six-hitters thrive.
• First WPL match: GG posted 201 vs RCB; RCB chased in 19.3 overs.
• Neutral ground: No team has home advantage. Squad depth decides.

Implication: MI's familiarity with DY Patil gives them an edge in the first leg. The Vadodara leg neutralises home advantage — squad quality and adaptability matter more.

Expert Predictions for WPL 2026

Not everyone agrees with our model. Here is what the experts say:

Our view: Chopra is betting on narrative. Deepti is betting on hope. We are betting on math. MI at 3.85 offers the best risk-adjusted expected value in this market.

WPL 2026 Schedule & Format

Key advantage: The team finishing 1st skips the Eliminator and goes straight to the Final. One less knockout to survive. In high-variance T20, fewer games means lower elimination risk. MI and DC are most likely to secure that top spot.

Where to Watch WPL 2026

Final Verdict