Who Will Win WPL 2026? Prediction, Betting Odds & Favourites
Last updated: 5 January 2026
Our probability model predicts Mumbai Indians will win WPL 2026 with a 33% probability. Bookmakers price them at 3.85 (implied 26%). That is a +7% edge — the only value bet in this market. MI enter as defending champions with 10 of 11 title-winning players intact. Delhi Capitals (20%) remain contenders despite losing Meg Lanning. UP Warriorz (22%) are this season’s dark horse. The tournament runs January 9 to February 5 across Navi Mumbai and Vadodara.
The Quantitative Case for Mumbai Indians
Mumbai Indians. The math is straightforward.
MI won in 2023 and 2025. Two titles from three seasons. They retained their championship core: Harmanpreet Kaur (captain), Nat Sciver-Brunt (Orange Cap 2025, 523 runs), and Hayley Matthews. They bought back Amelia Kerr (Purple Cap 2025, 18 wickets) for ₹3 crore at auction.
The first leg is at DY Patil Stadium — MI’s home fortress. Chasing teams have won 62.5% of T20s there. MI know these conditions. They train on them.
Bookmakers price MI at 3.85. That implies 26% probability. We calculate 33%. That 7-point gap is your edge.
WPL 2026 Outright Betting Odds
The market opened with Mumbai Indians as favourites. Current odds from major bookmakers:
| Team | Betfair | Dafabet | Implied Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mumbai Indians | 3.85 | 3.75 | 26% |
| Delhi Capitals | 5.00 | 4.50 | 20% |
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru | 4.50 | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| UP Warriorz | 4.90 | 4.50 | 20.4% |
| Gujarat Giants | 7.60 | 6.50 | 13.2% |
Odds accurate as of January 5, 2026. Prices will shorten as the tournament approaches.
The market prices RCB at 4.50 despite losing Ellyse Perry. Perry scored 372 runs in WPL 2025. She won the Orange Cap in 2024. RCB have not adjusted their squad strength. The market has not adjusted. This is a mispricing. Avoid.
Best WPL Betting Sites
Back Mumbai Indians at the best odds. These platforms offer competitive WPL outright markets with fast withdrawals.
Our Probability Model & Value Bet
We built a probability model using three years of WPL data, squad strength analysis, and key player movements. The results:
| Team | Our Probability | Fair Odds | Bookmaker Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mumbai Indians | 33% | 3.03 | 3.85 | +7.0% |
| UP Warriorz | 22% | 4.55 | 4.90 | +1.6% |
| Delhi Capitals | 20% | 5.00 | 5.00 | 0% |
| RCB | 13% | 7.69 | 4.50 | -9.2% |
| Gujarat Giants | 12% | 8.33 | 7.60 | -1.2% |
Our Recommendations
Value Bet
Mumbai Indians @ 3.85
Best squad, most stable core, home advantage in Mumbai leg. The market underrates them.
Monitor
UP Warriorz @ 4.90
+1.6%
Edge
—
Stake
Below our 2% threshold. Do not bet. Watch for odds drift closer to tournament.
Avoid
RCB @ 4.50
-9.2%
Edge
—
Stake
Market hasn't priced in Perry's withdrawal. You're paying for a squad that no longer exists.
Staking: 1 unit = 1% of your betting bankroll. We recommend 1.5u (1.5%) for edges above 5%, and 0.5u for edges between 2-5%.
Team-by-Team Analysis
Mumbai Indians
33% WIN PROBDefending Champions
Two titles. One core. Zero weaknesses.
Retained: Harmanpreet Kaur (c), Nat Sciver-Brunt, Hayley Matthews, Amanjot Kaur, G. Kamalini
Bought back: Amelia Kerr, Shabnim Ismail
2025 stats: Sciver-Brunt 523 runs (Orange Cap), Kerr 18 wickets (Purple Cap)
Key edge: 10 of 11 players from 2025 final XI return. Unmatched continuity.
Risk: Overconfidence. But Harmanpreet does not do overconfidence.
UP Warriorz
22% WIN PROBThe Dark Horse
New captain. New squad. New identity.
2025 finish: 5th place. Retained only Shweta Sehrawat. Complete rebuild.
Key signings: Meg Lanning (c) — 5x T20 World Cup winner. Deepti Sharma (₹3.2cr) — world No.1 all-rounder. Sophie Ecclestone — world's best spinner. Phoebe Litchfield — explosive opener.
Auction verdict: UPW won the auction. Elite captain adds 5-10% in close matches.
Risk: New combinations need time to gel. Chemistry is unproven. High variance.
Delhi Capitals
20% WIN PROBHigh Variance Finalists
Three finals. Zero titles. Statistical anomaly.
Finals record: Lost 2023, 2024, 2025 finals. Twice to MI, once to RCB. Topped table in two seasons.
Analysis: Three data points insufficient to diagnose choking. T20 finals are coin flips. DC have been second-best three times — consistency, not failure.
Changes: Meg Lanning left for UPW. Jemimah Rodrigues new captain. Annabel Sutherland withdrew. Added Laura Wolvaardt, Alana King.
Risk: Captaincy transition. New dynamics. Unproven in knockout pressure without Lanning.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
13% WIN PROB2024 Champions — Weakened
Title holders. Missing their best player.
Perry impact: Orange Cap 2024 (347 runs, avg 69.4). WPL 2025: 372 runs. Withdrew citing personal reasons.
Replacement: Sayali Satghare — uncapped domestic player. Not like-for-like. Engine replaced with bicycle wheel.
Market mispricing: RCB @ 4.50 implies 22%. Our model: 13%. That is -9.2% edge — market wrong by 10 points.
Remaining strength: Smriti Mandhana must carry batting. Richa Ghosh firepower. Sophie Devine experience. But Perry-shaped hole is enormous.
Verdict: Overpriced. Negative expected value. AVOID.
Gujarat Giants
12% WIN PROBPerennial Outsiders
Strong roster. No finals pedigree.
WPL record: Never reached a final. Finished 4th in 2025. Consistent but not elite.
Retained: Ashleigh Gardner (match-winner), Beth Mooney (c) — reliable opener.
Additions: Sophie Devine, Renuka Singh — solid but not transformative.
Assessment: Lack the X-factor separating good teams from champions in knockout cricket.
Risk: Ceiling is a playoff spot, not the trophy.
Key Factors: Player Withdrawals & Market Impact
Two major withdrawals reshape the market:
Ellyse Perry (RCB): Withdrew for personal reasons. Perry was RCB’s leading run-scorer in 2024 and 2025. Her absence drops RCB from contenders to outsiders. The market has not fully adjusted — RCB remain priced as if Perry is playing. This is the biggest mispricing in the market.
Annabel Sutherland (DC): Also withdrew for personal reasons. Sutherland was DC’s batting all-rounder providing middle-order balance. Her replacement is leg-spinner Alana King — different skill set, different role. DC’s batting depth is reduced.
Net impact: These withdrawals benefit MI. The two strongest rivals (RCB, DC) both lost key players. MI’s squad is intact. The competitive gap widened.
Venue Analysis: Navi Mumbai vs Vadodara
WPL 2026 is split across two venues. Venue characteristics matter for outright betting.
| Venue | Avg 1st Innings | Chasing Win % | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| DY Patil, Mumbai | 168 | 62.5% (5/8) | Dew favours chase; MI home ground |
| Kotambi, Vadodara | 155 | 100% (3/3)* | Short boundaries; limited data |
*Limited sample size from WPL 2025.
DY Patil Stadium, Navi Mumbai (Matches 1-10)
- Pitch: Batting-friendly early. Spinners grip in middle overs.
- Dew factor: Evening matches favour chasers significantly.
- MI advantage: This is their IPL home. They know every blade of grass.
Kotambi Stadium, Vadodara (Matches 11-22, Playoffs, Final)
- Pitch: High-scoring surface. Black soil. True bounce.
- Boundaries: Short — 51m, 60m, 61m. Six-hitters thrive.
- First WPL match: GG posted 201 vs RCB; RCB chased in 19.3 overs.
- Neutral ground: No team has home advantage. Squad depth decides.
Implication: MI’s familiarity with DY Patil gives them an edge in the first leg. The Vadodara leg neutralises home advantage — squad quality and adaptability matter more.
Expert Predictions for WPL 2026
Not everyone agrees with our model. Here is what the experts say:
Aakash Chopra (JioStar)
Delhi Capitals
"They have reached the finals all three times. Let them win it once."
Deepti Sharma (UP Warriorz)
UP Warriorz
"We want to cross the barrier and lift the trophy."
Our view: Chopra is betting on narrative. Deepti is betting on hope. We are betting on math. MI at 3.85 offers the best risk-adjusted expected value in this market.
WPL 2026 Schedule & Format
Tournament Details
- Start Date: January 9, 2026
- Final: February 5, 2026
- Teams: 5 franchises
- League Stage: Double round-robin (8 matches each)
Playoff Format
- Qualifiers: Top 3 teams
- 1st Place: Direct to Final
- Eliminator: 2nd vs 3rd
- Final: 1st vs Eliminator winner
Key advantage: The team finishing 1st skips the Eliminator and goes straight to the Final. One less knockout to survive. In high-variance T20, fewer games means lower elimination risk. MI and DC are most likely to secure that top spot.
Where to Watch WPL 2026
India
- TV: Star Sports 1, 2, 3
- Streaming: JioHotstar (free)
- Languages: Hindi, English, Tamil, Telugu, Kannada
International
- UK: Sky Sports
- USA: Willow TV
- Australia: Fox Sports
- Middle East: OSN Sports
WPL 2026 Predictions FAQ
Who is the betting favourite to win WPL 2026?
Mumbai Indians are the betting favourites at odds of 3.85 (Betfair). They are two-time champions (2023, 2025) with the most stable squad in the tournament.
What are the best value odds for WPL 2026?
Mumbai Indians @ 3.85 offer a +7% edge based on our probability model. This is the only bet that clears our 2% minimum edge threshold. All other teams show zero or negative edge.
Why haven't Delhi Capitals won a WPL title yet?
DC have reached all three WPL finals (2023, 2024, 2025) but lost each time — twice to MI, once to RCB. This is likely variance rather than a systemic problem. Three finals is a small sample. T20 finals are high-variance events. New captain Jemimah Rodrigues may change the pattern.
How has Ellyse Perry's withdrawal affected RCB?
Perry's withdrawal is significant. She scored 372 runs in WPL 2025 and won the Orange Cap in 2024. RCB's replacement is uncapped domestic player Sayali Satghare. The market has not adjusted — RCB are overpriced at 4.50. Our model gives them only 13% probability.
What are the WPL 2026 venues?
WPL 2026 is hosted at two venues: DY Patil Stadium, Navi Mumbai (Matches 1-10) and Kotambi Stadium, Vadodara (Matches 11-22, Playoffs, Final).
When does WPL 2026 start?
WPL 2026 begins on January 9, 2026 with Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru at DY Patil Stadium, Navi Mumbai. The final is on February 5, 2026 in Vadodara.
How many teams qualify for WPL playoffs?
Top 3 teams qualify for playoffs. The 1st-placed team advances directly to the Final. The 2nd and 3rd-placed teams play an Eliminator, with the winner advancing to face the 1st-placed team in the Final.
Final Verdict
Back Mumbai Indians @ 3.85
+7.0%
Edge
1.5u
Stake
The numbers point one direction. MI have the squad, the chemistry, and home advantage in the Mumbai leg. Two titles from three seasons. Ten of eleven title-winning players retained.
33%
Our Probability
26%
Market Implied
+7.0%
Edge
3.85
Best Odds
Summary
- ● Favourite: Mumbai Indians @ 3.85 — defending champions, most stable squad
- ● Dark Horse: UP Warriorz @ 4.90 — Meg Lanning factor, but +1.6% edge below threshold
- ● Avoid: RCB @ 4.50 — market hasn't priced in Perry's withdrawal, -9.2% edge
- ● Tournament: January 9 – February 5, 2026 | Mumbai & Vadodara
Looking for men's IPL predictions? See our IPL 2026 winner prediction for outright value analysis on the world's biggest T20 league.
Odds and analysis accurate as of January 5, 2026. Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly.