India Women vs Sri Lanka Women Prediction - Sri Lanka Women tour of India 2025-26
INDW India Women
SLW Sri Lanka Women
Sri Lanka Women tour of India 2025-26
India Women vs Sri Lanka Women Match Recap
India are overwhelming favourites—but the value lies with Sri Lanka. The bookmakers have India at 1.07 (93.5% implied), but our model gives them 82%. Sri Lanka at 10.00 offers +8% edge. This is an underdog value bet in a dead rubber.
Series Context
India have already won the series 4-0. This 5th T20I is a dead rubber. India may rotate their XI to give bench players game time ahead of the T20 World Cup 2026. Jemimah Rodrigues missed the 4th T20I due to mild fever—her availability remains doubtful.
Series Results
| Match | Result | Key Performer |
|---|---|---|
| 1st T20I (Dec 21) | India by 8 wkts | Jemimah 69* |
| 2nd T20I (Dec 23) | India by 7 wkts | Shafali 69* |
| 3rd T20I (Dec 26) | India by 8 wkts | Renuka 4/21, Shafali 79* |
| 4th T20I (Dec 28) | India by 30 runs | Mandhana 80, Shafali 79 |
India posted 221/2 in the 4th T20I—their highest T20I total ever. Mandhana and Shafali put on a 162-run opening stand (record partnership).
Why India Are Likely Winners (82%)
- Shafali Verma in devastating form: 69*, 79*, 79 in last three innings. Strike rate above 170.
- Smriti Mandhana: 80 off 48 in 4th T20I, reached 10,000 international runs (fastest ever).
- Bowling dominance: Renuka Singh 4/21, Deepti Sharma 3/18 in 3rd T20I. Deepti is now joint-highest T20I wicket-taker.
- Complete dominance: Sri Lanka haven't come close in any match. Chased down totals with overs to spare in first three games.
Why Sri Lanka Offer Value (+8% Edge)
- Dead rubber rotation: India may rest key players. Bench players like G Kamalini (uncapped) expected to debut.
- Nothing to lose: Sri Lanka 0-4 down, can play without pressure. Young players will want to impress.
- Chamari Athapaththu: Captain scored 52 in 4th T20I. World-class player capable of match-winning knock.
- Extreme mispricing: 93.5% implied for India is too heavy. Even dominant teams lose 1 in 5 dead rubbers.
Key Stats This Series
| Player | Team | Runs | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shafali Verma | IND | 230+ | SR 170+, 3 consecutive 50s |
| Smriti Mandhana | IND | 100+ | 80 in 4th T20I, 10k intl runs |
| Chamari Athapaththu | SL | 80+ | 52 in 4th T20I, only SL bright spot |
Venue & Conditions
Greenfield International Stadium, Thiruvananthapuram has hosted the last three matches. Evening match (7 PM IST) means dew will be a factor for the team bowling second. Weather: 31°C, humid, no rain expected.
Value Note
Bookmakers have Sri Lanka at 10.00 (10% implied). Our model gives them 18%, creating +8% edge.
India at 1.07 offers no value—the market has them at 93.5% vs our 82%.
This is a value bet on the underdog. Sri Lanka will lose more often than they win, but at these odds, backing them is +EV long-term.
