Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Prediction - Pakistan tour of Sri Lanka 2026

Pakistan are the likely winners—but the value is on Sri Lanka. The bookmakers have priced Pakistan at 1.54 (64.9% implied), but our model gives them 57%. That's an 8% overpricing. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka at 2.45 offers +2.2% edge. This is a value bet on the hosts.

Series Context

This is the 1st T20I of a 3-match series (Jan 7, 9, 11) at Dambulla. Both teams are using this as preparation for the T20 World Cup 2026, which begins February 7 in India and Sri Lanka. Pakistan will play all their World Cup group matches in Sri Lanka—making this series crucial for acclimatisation.

Team News & Squad Analysis

Sri Lanka: New captain Dasun Shanaka takes over after Charith Asalanka was sacked on December 19 due to poor batting form. Asalanka remains in the 25-man squad but loses leadership duties. The key players are Pathum Nissanka (Sri Lanka's highest T20I run-scorer with 2,326 runs, SR 162.63 in 2025—his best year), Wanindu Hasaranga (131 T20I wickets, fastest to 300 T20 wickets in 208 matches), and Kusal Mendis. Shanaka brings experience from three World Cups.

Pakistan: Captain Salman Ali Agha leads a side that won 21 T20Is in 2025—the most among full-member nations. They beat Sri Lanka in the Tri-Series Final (Nov 29, 2025) by 6 wickets. Babar Azam became the highest T20I run-scorer ever (4,234+ runs) and has 40 scores of 50+ (most ever). Shaheen Afridi took ~26 wickets in 2025 with 10 Player of the Match awards (record for fast bowlers). Shadab Khan is expected to return after rest, and Haris Rauf is under consideration.

Head-to-Head Record

Metric	Pakistan	Sri Lanka
Overall T20I H2H	14 wins	10 wins
Last 5 Meetings	1 win	4 wins
Most Recent	Pakistan won Tri-Series Final (Nov 29, 2025) by 6 wkts

Pakistan leads overall, but Sri Lanka dominated the last 5 meetings before the Tri-Series Final. Home conditions could swing momentum back to the hosts.

Key Player Stats (2025 T20Is)

Player	Team	Role	2025 Stats
Pathum Nissanka	SL	Opener	348 runs, SR 148.71, 107 vs India (maiden T20I ton)
Wanindu Hasaranga	SL	Spinner	16 wkts in 11 T20Is, economy 6.88
Babar Azam	PAK	Batter	Highest T20I run-scorer (4,234+), 40 x 50+ scores
Shaheen Afridi	PAK	Pace	~26 wkts in 21 T20Is, 10 POTMs (record for pacers)

Venue Analysis: Dambulla

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium has become more batter-friendly in recent years. In 2024, the average first innings score was ~191. Historical T20I averages are 162 (1st innings) and 144 (2nd innings). The highest T20 score here is 209/5 (Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka, 2024).

Key factor: Spinners dominate the middle overs as the ball grips. Hasaranga on this surface is a significant advantage for Sri Lanka. Dew in evening matches can assist chasers.

Why Sri Lanka Offers Value

• Home advantage: Sri Lanka know Dambulla conditions intimately. Pakistan are visitors adjusting to subcontinent spin.
• Hasaranga factor: His 131 T20I wickets and 6.88 economy make him lethal on turning tracks. Pakistan's batters have historically struggled against quality spin.
• Nissanka's form: SR of 162.63 in 2025 is extraordinary. He can single-handedly win matches.
• New captain energy: Shanaka's appointment may galvanise the squad. Fresh leadership often produces results.
• Recent H2H: Sri Lanka won 4 of the last 5 meetings before the Tri-Series Final.

Why Pakistan Are Likely Winners

• 2025 dominance: 21 T20I wins—the most among full-member nations.
• Tri-Series Final: Beat Sri Lanka by 6 wickets in their most recent meeting.
• Pace attack: Shaheen Afridi and Naseem Shah are world-class. If Haris Rauf returns, it's even stronger.
• Babar's experience: 4,234+ T20I runs and 40 x 50+ scores. He's built for big occasions.

Final Verdict

Pakistan will likely win this match—our model gives them 57% probability. But the bookmakers have priced them at 64.9% (1.54 odds), creating negative edge (-7.9%) on the favourites.

Sri Lanka at 2.45 (40.8% implied) vs our 43% model probability creates +2.2% edge. This is a classic value bet scenario: back the underdog because the market has overpriced the favourite.

Sri Lanka at 43% confidence is our VALUE pick.

Value Note

Bookmakers have Sri Lanka at 2.45 (40.8% implied). Our 43% assessment creates a +2.2% edge.

Pakistan at 1.54 offers no value—the market has them at 64.9% vs our 57%.

This is a value bet on the underdog. Sri Lanka will lose more often than they win, but at these odds, backing them is +EV long-term. If you're uncomfortable backing a team at 43%, this is a SKIP—but mathematically, the edge is with Sri Lanka.

Side market: Wanindu Hasaranga 2+ wickets - Dambulla's spin-friendly conditions suit him perfectly.