Kerala vs Rajasthan Prediction - Vijay Hazare Trophy 2025-26
KER Kerala
RAJ Rajasthan
Vijay Hazare Trophy 2025-26
Kerala vs Rajasthan Match Recap
Result: Kerala won by 2 wickets. Kerala 348/8 (50 ov) vs Rajasthan 343/7 (50 ov).
Pre-Match Probability: Kerala 62% | Rajasthan 38%
No Bet: Edge was below 2% threshold.
Match Summary
A last-over thriller at the Gujarat College Ground. Baba Aparajith's 126 off 116 balls anchored Kerala's chase, but it was 20-year-old Eden Apple Tom who stole the show. With 19 needed off the final over, Eden smashed three consecutive sixes off Akash Singh to seal an improbable victory.
Rajasthan had posted a formidable 343/7 thanks to Karan Lamba's unbeaten 119 and Deepak Hooda's 86. Kerala's chase started disastrously—captain Rohan Kunnummal was bowled first ball by Aniket Choudhary. But Krishna Prasad (53) and Aparajith steadied the innings with a 155-run partnership.
When Aparajith fell with 35 still needed, it looked over. But Eden Apple Tom walked in and delivered one of the innings of the tournament—40 not out off just 18 balls (1 four, 5 sixes). His composure in the final over was extraordinary.
Key Performances
| Player | Team | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| Baba Aparajith | KER | 126 off 116 (12x4, 4x6) |
| Eden Apple Tom | KER | 40* off 18 (1x4, 5x6) - POTM |
| Karan Lamba | RAJ | 119* off 108 |
| Deepak Hooda | RAJ | 86 off 79 |
| Aniket Choudhary | RAJ | 4/67 |
Analysis Review
Validated: Kerala's all-round depth proved decisive. Aparajith delivered exactly as predicted with both bat and ball leadership. Kerala's ability to beat weaker teams (Tripura in Round 1) translated to handling pressure here.
Overestimated: Rajasthan's inability to close out games. They actually posted 343—their best score of the tournament—and had Kerala 313/8 with 35 needed. They should have won.
Underweighted: Kerala's lower-order firepower. Eden Apple Tom was an unknown quantity. His 40* off 18 balls was a breakout performance that single-handedly changed the game.
Betting Outcome
No bet placed. Edge was only 0.7%. The correct prediction (Kerala at 62%) played out, but this was far closer than the probability suggested. Rajasthan's best performance of the tournament nearly won them the match.
