Manipur vs Mizoram Prediction - Vijay Hazare Trophy 2025-26

Manipur are heavy favourites—but Mizoram offer VALUE. Bookmakers have Manipur at 1.13 (88.5% implied), but our model gives them only 72%. That means Mizoram at 5.10 (19.6% implied) vs our 28% = +8.4% edge. This is an underdog value bet.

Match Context

This is a VHT Plate Group match at JSCA International Stadium, Ranchi (main ground). Manipur are 3rd with 2 wins, Mizoram are last with 0 wins. On paper, a mismatch—but the odds are too extreme.

Team News

Manipur: Captain Bishworjit Konthoujam leads a resilient side. Pheiroijam Jotin scored a match-winning 101* off 77 balls vs Nagaland in a 1-wicket thriller. They pushed Bihar close, losing by only 15 runs (269/9 chasing 285). Konthoujam himself took a hat-trick vs Bihar (3 wickets in 3 balls in the 50th over).

Mizoram: Captain Joseph Lalthankhuma leads a winless side (0-3). However, they won the SMAT Plate final just weeks ago—proving they can peak when it matters. Karthik CA (guest player) is a genuine bowling threat with 6/49 vs Meghalaya. Their batting has struggled in List A, but the SMAT form suggests they are not as weak as results indicate.

Head-to-Head

Manipur won the last 2 meetings (2019: 9 runs, 2018: 210 runs). But these are old results with different squads.

Why Mizoram at 5.10 is VALUE (+8.4% edge)

• Market overreaction: Bookmakers give Mizoram only 19.6% chance. We assess them at 28%.
• SMAT champions: Mizoram won the Plate final. They know how to win knockout pressure games.
• Karthik CA factor: Their guest player took 6/49 vs Meghalaya. If he fires again, Manipur's batting could be exposed.
• Manipur complacency risk: Expected to cruise against bottom team. Classic upset setup.

Why This Bet Will Likely Lose

Let us be clear: Mizoram will probably lose. Manipur have better form (2-1 vs 0-3), better batting depth (Jotin 101*, multiple 40+ scores), and a hat-trick hero in Konthoujam. Our 28% confidence means we expect to lose this bet roughly 3 times out of 4.

But at 5.10 odds with +8.4% edge, the long-term expected value is positive. This is how value betting works.

Final Verdict

Manipur should win. But the bookmakers have overcorrected—giving Mizoram only 19.6% when they deserve 28%. That is where the value lies.

VALUE BET: Mizoram at 5.10 odds. Stake: 1.5 units (₹150).

Value Note

Bookmakers have Manipur at 1.13 (88.5% implied). Our 72% assessment = -16.5% edge. No value.

Mizoram at 5.10 (19.6% implied). Our 28% assessment = +8.4% edge. VALUE BET.

Bet on Mizoram if you find odds above 3.57.