Otago Sparks vs Canterbury Magicians Prediction - Women's Super Smash 2025-26

Result: Otago Sparks won by 6 wickets. CMW 145/6 (20 ov) vs OSW 146/4 (14.5 ov).

Pre-Match Probability: Otago Sparks 55% | Canterbury Magicians 45%

No Bet: Edge was -0.2% (below 2% threshold). Prediction correct.

Match Summary

Laura Harris delivered a stunning performance. Her 52 off just 17 balls included a 15-ball fifty—equalling the fastest in Women's Super Smash history (Marie Kelly's record from 2022). Canterbury posted 145/6 with Izzy Sharp scoring an unbeaten 65* off 47 balls. But Harris's explosive innings meant Otago chased it down with 31 balls to spare.

Analysis Review

Validated: Home advantage at Molyneux Park. Otago's familiarity with Alexandra conditions proved decisive—they won comfortably despite Suzie Bates' absence.

Validated: Otago's squad depth beyond Bates. Laura Harris stepped up in spectacular fashion, proving the team has match-winners beyond their injured star.

Overestimated: The impact of Suzie Bates' absence. We flagged it as "too much uncertainty" but Otago coped better than expected.

Outcome

No bet placed. Edge was -0.2%—below the 2% minimum threshold. The SKIP decision was correct process. Prediction was accurate but no value existed at 1.81 odds.