India Women vs Sri Lanka Women Prediction - Sri Lanka Women tour of India 2025-26
INDW India Women
SLW Sri Lanka Women
Sri Lanka Women tour of India 2025-26
India Women vs Sri Lanka Women Match Recap
Result: India Women won by 30 runs. IND 221/2 (20 ov) vs SL 191/6 (20 ov).
Pre-Match Probability: India Women 78% | Sri Lanka Women 22%
Value Bet: Sri Lanka Women @ 8.38 (+10.1%) → Lost -₹150
Match Summary
India posted a mammoth 221/2—their highest T20I total ever. Smriti Mandhana (80 off 48) and Shafali Verma (79 off 46) put on 162 runs for the opening wicket—India's highest opening partnership in women's T20Is. Richa Ghosh added 40* off 16 to finish the innings. Sri Lanka fought back through Chamari Athapaththu (52), but 221 was always out of reach. They finished on 191/6.
Analysis Review
Validated: Our thesis that India were overpriced at 94.3% was mathematically sound. They won, as expected (78% probability). Value betting on underdogs means accepting losses more often than wins.
Overestimated: Sri Lanka's ability to capitalise on a "dead rubber." India showed no signs of rotation—Mandhana and Shafali both played and dominated. The expected experimentation didn't materialise.
Underweighted: India's batting depth and form. Mandhana reached 10,000 international runs (fastest ever). The series being "dead" didn't reduce India's intensity—if anything, they played with freedom.
Betting Outcome
Bet lost. -â‚ą150 on Sri Lanka Women at 8.38. This was a mathematically correct bet that didn't convert. At 22% probability, we expected to lose roughly 4 out of 5 such bets. The edge was real (+10.1%), but variance is high on underdog bets. Long-term, consistently finding +10% edge on underdogs remains profitable despite individual losses.
Original Analysis
India are the likely winners—but the value is on Sri Lanka. The bookmakers have priced India at 1.06 (94.3% implied), but our model gives them 78%. That is a 16% overpricing. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka at 8.38 offers +10.1% edge. This is a value bet on the underdogs in a dead rubber.
Series Context
India have already won the series 3-0 with two matches to spare. This is a dead rubber. Coach Amol Muzumdar has confirmed the team will "continue to rotate the side" to test bench strength ahead of the T20 World Cup 2026. Expect changes to the XI.
Series Results So Far
| Match | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1st T20I (Dec 21) | India won | 8 wickets (SL 121/6) |
| 2nd T20I (Dec 23) | India won | 7 wickets, 49 balls left (SL 128/9) |
| 3rd T20I (Dec 26) | India won | 8 wickets, 40 balls left (SL 112/7) |
Sri Lanka have not crossed 130 in any match. Their batting has been fragile throughout.
Why India Are Likely Winners (78%)
- Shafali Verma on fire: 69* (34 balls) in 2nd T20I, 79* (42 balls) in 3rd T20I. Strike rate above 180.
- Bowling dominance: Renuka Singh 4/21 (3rd T20I), Deepti Sharma 3/18 (now joint-highest T20I wicket-taker ever).
- Head-to-head: India lead 21-5 in all-time T20Is vs Sri Lanka Women.
- Home conditions: Thiruvananthapuram favours chasers (9/14 matches won by chasing team).
Why Sri Lanka Offer Value (+10.1% Edge)
- Dead rubber rotation: India may rest Shafali, Renuka, or other key players. Their bench is still strong, but the gap narrows.
- Chamari Athapaththu overdue: The captain scored 31 in 2nd T20I but just 3 in 3rd. She is a world-class player capable of match-winning performances. 573 runs vs India in T20Is—the leading scorer in this fixture.
- Nothing to lose: Sri Lanka are 0-3 down. They can play freely without pressure. Young players will want to impress.
- Extreme mispricing: Bookmakers at 94.3% for India is too heavy, even accounting for dominance. Dead rubber variance increases upset probability.
Key Player Stats (This Series)
| Player | Team | Role | This Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shafali Verma | IND | Opener | 148 runs, SR 185+ |
| Renuka Singh | IND | Pace | 4/21 in 3rd T20I (comeback) |
| Deepti Sharma | IND | All-rounder | 3/18 in 3rd T20I, joint-highest T20I wicket-taker |
| Chamari Athapaththu (C) | SL | All-rounder | 31, 3 - struggling but class player |
| Harshitha Samarawickrama | SL | Batter | 33 in 2nd T20I - best SL performer |
Venue Analysis
Greenfield International Stadium, Thiruvananthapuram is a bowler-friendly venue early, with dew shifting advantage to chasers at night. Average T20 score is 114-127. The 3rd T20I here saw Sri Lanka restricted to 112/7.
Toss factor: Heavy dew expected. Winning toss and bowling first is a significant advantage.
Final Verdict
India will likely win this match—our model gives them 78% probability. But 78% is not 94%. The bookmakers have overpriced India by 16 percentage points.
Sri Lanka at 8.38 (11.9% implied) vs our 22% model probability creates +10.1% edge. This is a textbook value bet scenario.
Sri Lanka Women at 22% confidence is our VALUE pick.
Value Note
Bookmakers have India at 1.06 (94.3% implied). Our 78% assessment means -16.3% edge on the favourite.
Sri Lanka at 8.38 (11.9% implied) vs our 22% creates +10.1% edge.
This is a value bet on the underdog. Sri Lanka will lose more often than they win, but at 8.38 odds, backing them is +EV long-term. Expected ROI: +84% per unit wagered.
If you are uncomfortable backing a team at 22%, this is a SKIP for you—but mathematically, the edge is with Sri Lanka.
