Official international cricket matches are all classified by ICC into three formats; Test Matches, One Day International and T20 International. Because cricket matches are played under different rules and regulations, creating a common cricket betting system becomes impossible.
So, how do I optimise my betting strategy depending on the cricket match format? And, should I favor any of the three formats to maximise my bet winnings?
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Identifying specific factors affecting the final results in each of the three format categories is where we must start.
Let's make a comparison between the three formats and how their diverse game rules and playing time impacts the choice of best betting strategy.
Determining a spectrum for each fixture where a final score is the most likely to be found, can be done by just looking at match formats. The main difference is the run rate between the two cricket formats in our example.
We must anticipate a lower Run Rate in a Test Match. Why? Run rate describes the average number of runs by the batsman. It follows that players in Twenty20 and ODI understands that they have limited-overs and try to play each game situation. Unlike test matches, where teams play for five days and, as a result, have more time to shift the final scores to their advantage. Always take into account the expected run rate for a certain cricket format when valuing a cricket bet.
Additionally, expected batsman's strike rate varies between matches played under different cricket rules and must be accounted for when deciding on your betting strategy. The average SR for Test Cricket is ranging from 85.0 – 90.0. While before placing a match bet on the shorter Twenty20 game format, you must have considered a rate exceeding 120.0. For some players, it even surpasses 170.0.
As you might have noticed, the strike rate and the run rate correlates to some extent. This statistical relation is also present in the One-Day Internationals. In an ODI match, the teams are typically more motivated and struggle even harder compared to how they act in a longer-lasting Test Cricket game.
When deciding on a bet, always look at the high impact players, the ones that make a big impact on the final match score. Every team separates its lineups for batters and bowlers. Among those, the TOP batsman, often good enough to lead his team to victory single-handedly. Depending on which format, a TOP has a greater or less probability of making a significant impact on the final score. The best players will take fewer chances the longer the match format is, which in turn, reduces final score volatility compared to a shorter cricket format. Correctly accounting for individual players' impacts in close T20I- or ODI matches will enable you to adopt betting strategies that thrive on high volatility odds rates.
When placing a match-bet on a fixed-odds rate, regardless of the game format, you have consequently made a risk-return choice. The objective should be to maximise aggregated winnings over time, by incorporating precise match probability estimates and well-balanced risk/reward ratios. After developing a profitable model incorporating all the essential ingredients, it's all about making use of it as many times as possible.
Therefore, the best form of cricket to bet on is the T20 Internationals format. The final result of a match played under the shorter T20I format is, to a greater extent, determined from single-player achievements compared to that of a Test Match. In other words, the match favourite might change many times during a T20I game, subsequently will the odds. The higher score volatility associated with T20 International makes this cricket format best suited for betting. The more bets with a positive EV you can place, the more wealth you are expected to gain.