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The World Test Championship was introduced by cricket’s global governing body, the ICC, in 2019. This competition was launched with the aim of promoting and preserving the Test cricket format during an era in the sport when limited overs leagues and tournaments are being prioritised in countries where the game is popular.
Ahead of explaining how we arrive at the World Test Championship predictions made on this site, here is some further information on how it works. Nine of the full member nations of the ICC compete on a two-year cycle (the first of which is 2019-21). Test series played between India, England, Australia, the West Indies, Sri Lanka, New Zealand, Pakistan and/or Bangladesh can count towards the championship based on a points system for results. The ICC has ruled India and Pakistan will not play against each other in either the first or second editions.
While that denies the World Test Championship of one of its key sporting rivalries, The Ashes series between England and Australia are very much part of it. The number of matches in each Test series determines how many points are on offer for a win. In a two-match series, countries receive 60 points for a win, 30 for a tie and 20 for a draw. For three-match series, those numbers are adjusted to 40, 20 and 13 respectively. Four-match Test series carry 30, 15 and 10 points for the various outcomes. If there’s a five-match series, then a win is worth 24, a tie 12 and a draw eight points.
After each cricketing country has played its six designated World Test Championship series, three at home and three away on tour, the top two on overall points will meet in the final at Lord’s in London between June 10 and 14, 2021. The next cycle of the tournament (2021-23) will have a different final venue.
Now that you’re clear on how this competition works, let’s discuss our World Test Championship betting tips. India is a country where cricket matters, so we’ve got tipsters out there on the Subcontinent who have made their names betting and winning on this sport. What is behind the World Test Championship match predictions they give, though?
The short answer is data and stats. We run a mathematical model simulating Test cricket matches about 100,000,000 times to calculate what the chances of certain outcomes are. Once the data is converted into probabilities, this aids us and the tipsters in figuring out what the odds are of something happening in a game. Once a report is generated, we then identify the best value on offer. These are the World Test Championship betting tips we put on the site.
We only use predictions that give the highest expected value after comparing all the angles. It’s not merely a maths problem, though. The logical approach is mixed with expert analysis based on what the weather forecast says and any team news announced beforehand, as our India-based cricket experts have their say. They know all the form, so you can rely on them to find good bets.
You are probably thinking what stats and data drive our World Test Championship predictions model? Past meetings and results between cricket nations are naturally the foundation of this, but we’re happy to be more specific about it and break everything down for you so that you understand.
The results and whether teams were at home or away are the first thing to come under consideration. A touring team is always at a disadvantage in Test cricket. This is because the hosts know the conditions better than they ever can, because home nations play the sport in them more often and are natives to that country.
Closely tied to past Test results are the innings totals. Each team bats and bowls twice if a match is completed, so are there any differences or similarities from one innings to the next? This, in turn, is dependent on other factors like the first innings total influencing what is needed in the second.
If a team is chasing a certain score in a Test, is it feasible? Are there enough overs to complete it? What is the record run chase between the two countries competing? Are the fielding team more likely to bowl the one batting out? How much time on average is left to complete the chase? While run rates are not so important in Test cricket, the scores made by individual batsman – their batting averages – remain vital.
This, in turn, identifies if a certain player is the key wicket for the opposition bowlers to take. If they struggle to get a batsman out, then that will impact upon their chancing of winning the Test. Bowlers have much longer spells in attack in this form of cricket than others, so bowling averages play their part in calculations too.
In the event a bowler has taken career-best figures against certain opposition on a particular ground, then that player has to be respected. With Test cricket taking place across a few days, changing conditions are yet another variable to be considered. Will the pitch turn in response to weather or constant use over previous days?
Each time a ball is bowled, it begins to deteriorate and become scuffed. Does the fielding team take a new ball after the one they have been using reaches the required number of overs before a replacement is offered? This doesn’t enter into One Day or T20 cricket, but is part and parcel of the Test arena.
As you can see, there are a lot of different factors that go into our statistical model. We arrive at the World Test Championship betting tips provided on this page by looking at all of these beforehand. It’s a very thorough process aimed at passing on value wagers to punters just like you.
Tossing a coin before any sport played on a pitch is not only traditional in cricket, but part of the overall sense of fair play. In a World Test Championship game, it is usually the captain of the country on tour that makes the call of heads or tails. The coin toss usually takes place around 30 minutes before play on the first day of a Test match is due to begin. Prior to that, the captain of both the hosts and visiting teams will inspect the pitch alongside the umpire.
They will be looking at conditions to see what the pitch is like in order to inform their decision on what to do if getting the opportunity to choose whether to bat or field. If the touring captain correctly calls the coin toss, then he decides. However, should he lose the call, then it is for the skipper of the home nation to choose whether to start in the field or at the crease.
A lot more goes into a captain making his mind up about whether to bat or bowl than you might think. A sticky, soft and dusty wicket favours spin in terms of bowling. If a team is lacking the fit or available spinners to take advantage of that, then it makes sense to bat first. A dry, parched wicket, meanwhile, will respond better to pace and seam bowling.
The weather forecast over the coming days of a Test match can also influence the decision. It may make sense to put a score on the board first if rain is coming over, rather than play catchup with more limited time. Captains have to choose what to do based on the players picked, their form and fitness and state of the pitch at the time and after there’s been some play. The coin toss is key.
We are often quizzed about the World Test Championship betting predictions we give here by our readers. In order to answer your common queries, check out the popular Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) below: