How to Predict Cricket Matches

We all want to win money betting on cricket. But how do you turn from being someone who has only a modest record at picking winners to a smart picker who wins more times than you lose?

Here we run through some tips to turn you into a serial winner betting on cricket by making better predictions!

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Understand how a betting market works

Before you bet on cricket, you must have a good knowledge of how odds work and what odds mean from a percentage perspective.

Until you know this, you will find it impossible to work out whether a team or another betting market is offering 'good' odds or not.

We recommend you check out our detailed guide on How to Calculate Cricket Odds Ratio. Here you will learn critical things such as:

  • Understanding cricket odds

  • How to convert odds to percentages

  • How to calculate expected value (EV)

  • How bookmakers make a profit

  • How to use EV to make a profit betting

But if you are in a rush, here’s a quick example. India are playing Australia in an ODI at a neutral ground.

Market

Odds

Implied Probability (1 / decimal odds) x 100

India to win

8/11 (1.73)

57.9%

Australia to win

11/10 (2.10)

47.6%

Draw

100/1 (101.00)

1%

These are the bookmaker's prices, so you will see the total percentages add up to more than 100. The extra 6.5% is the bookie’s overround or guaranteed profit if all prices were equally bet on.

Now you can see the prices as a percentage, decide whether those quotes are fair or not. Maybe your prediction has India's chances of winning as much higher than 57.9%, in which case you would bet on India.

Alternatively, maybe Australia's chances are being underestimated. Therefore, you can place a bet at a bigger price than should be the case.

As you get quicker at working out odds, you can do the process in reverse! Write what odds you think a team should be before you look at the bookmaker's prices and then see how big your difference of opinion is.

The larger the difference, the more you should be betting on that price. Check out our bankroll management page for different betting strategies.

Being able to work out implied probability percentages of bookmaker's odds is an essential weapon in being able to predict cricket matches.

Watch and follow as much cricket as you can

This is an obvious one. Bookmakers have traders whose whole job is to watch cricket and update databases with as much info as possible about teams, players, stadiums, surfaces, and any other useful data and statistics.

By immersing yourself in the sport, you will notice things that casual viewers miss. Maybe a batsman struggles against left-handed bowlers. Perhaps you have found a bowler who excels on fast wickets, but not on slower ones.

Some teams play much better at home, while others find it easier to play away from the pressure of home fans. We´ve explored how home advantage differs between cricket formats.

Similarly, following a broad range of news sources and reading cricket stats from great sites like ESPNcricinfo will widen your knowledge.

Even following teams, players, and coaches on Twitter can be useful - you might find out before a bookmaker that a star player will miss the match with injury and so be able to take odds on the other team before they are adjusted to take the news into account.

Becoming a hardcore cricket fan will make you better equipped to make cricket predictions and use your forecasts to make money.

Find an area to specialise in

It’s impossible to become an expert on every cricket league and tournament, no matter how much cricket you watch. Choose a favourite competition or format and make that your primary area of learning.

This could be the IPL or the T20 format, for example. Becoming a specialist will help you focus and lead to better cricket predictions. Our betting article on match formats can help you with this too.

Try and find an edge

Finding an edge in cricket betting or individual cricket markets is the ability to make predictions that have a higher probability of happening than the odds you receive.

Of course, working out the true odds of any cricket match is impossible - there are simply too many variables.

Remember, odds are just the bookmaker's opinions and, if we work hard enough, we should be able to find occasions when our predictions are more accurate.

Some old but simple rules apply to this way of thinking. If India are playing cricket against any team, then it's reasonable to assume nearly all the bets in India will be on India to win.

How does a bookie compensate for this? By making the odds on India shorter than they should be. This means there will be lots of occasions during the year where the opposition team will be a larger price than we think they should be.

Yes, India in this example may be the most likely winners, but if you predict the opposition has a better chance than the odds suggest, then that's where your money should go. We have another great article on understanding Value Bets you should read too.

Knowing when to 'go against the market' (against public opinion) is an important tool in your arsenal when making cricket predictions.

Leave it to the experts!

Making precise cricket predictions takes a long time and a lot of work. New balls, fresh tactics and different players are just some of the things you will keep needing to consider as you make your cricket predictions.

It’s a continual process of learning and updating your methods. There is a reason that bookmakers consistently make money - they are better than most people at making odds and creating predictions.

But CricketPrediction.com creates the best cricket predictions by using both data and expert tipsters, plus AI technology that is free from human biases.

All our cricket predictions are free, and we cover all major leagues, series, and tourneys, as well as smaller fixtures during quieter months.

Good luck!