What does value betting on cricket odds refer to?
In short, value betting is when you place a bet on a discounted odds rate. The result of a value bet is the same as a good trade; you generate expected profit. Cricket gambling odds are a numerical expression reflecting the likelihood that a possible event in a cricket match will occur.
Since the cricket odds you bet on originates from the bookmaker's event probability assessment, they don't necessarily reflect the true probability. If you can estimate the probabilities of certain events taking place in a cricket game more accurately than the bookmakers can do, then you got an edge.
By consistently placing cricket bets on unjustifiable high odds-rates (cricket value bets), and at the same time, maintaining an efficient bankroll management strategy, you will accumulate wealth.
Let's look at a concrete odds example. A Twenty20 cricket match played between New Zealand and India. Dafabet, an online betting site, is offering bettors the opportunity to back either team at below odds rates:
Can we justify placing a bet on either team using the value betting theory?
First, we need to create our own probability assessment of how the game is likely to play out. Subsequently, we must approximate the probability of either team winning the game. In this example, our probability estimation (taking into account historical data and the latest team status reports) indicates a 40 percent likelihood of New Zealand winning the game. At the same time, we estimate an Indian victory to 60 percent. Note that these two probabilities add up to 100 percent; we are certain that either NZ or India will win the match.
Now it's time to convert Dafabet's odds into probabilities expressed as a percentage. We aim to compare the bookmaker's probability estimates to our own approximations. Just follow the simple odds to implied probability percentage formula:
Implied probability percentage = 1 / Odds * 100
When applying the above formula to the cricket odds rates offered by Dafabet, we will disclose the embedded implied probability percentage:
Please note, the two probability percentages representing this odds market do not add up to 100%. Instead, the percentage implies a likelihood of 105.9% (42.2% + 63.7% = 105.9%) that one of the two teams will win the match. How is this possible, it does not make sense?
Fortunately, it makes perfect sense. The odds, in addition to just reflecting a probability estimate, also includes the bookmaker's profit margin, also called overround. The overround capacitate for the bookmakers to generate revenue; to maintain their business profitable. Consequently, it's vital for any business operating a sportsbook to establish highly efficient probability prediction models together with good risk management practices.
Back to our example. The bookmaker overround is 42.2% + 63.7% - 100% = 5.9%.
Value betting on Cricket can only succeed if you have identified odds that don't reflect the true probability for the event to occur. In other words, you have made a better prediction than that of the odds compiler.
At the beginning of our example, we forecasted the chance of New Zealand winning the match to 40%, and respectively for India to 60%. Hence, are there any cricket value bets we can place on this match when looking at the odds rates at Dafabet?
Unfortunately, not. The bookmaker's winner odds are too low; they do not conceal any odds value. Dafabet's decent event probability estimation, together with the added overround makes a value bet impossible.
Let's instead continue our example by introducing a second online cricket betting site, 10Cric. 10cric.com has a different opinion on how the match between New Zealand and India is likely to develop. The odds compilers at 10cric are willing to let customers bet on the following odds:
We convert 10cric odds to percentage ratios using the implied probability percentage formula:
Even though 10cric has added a massive 9,2% bookmaker's margin, we can still locate odds value in one of the market's selections. That is 2.65 on New Zealand Win.
From our own estimations, we concluded that there is a 40% chance of NZ winning the match. 10cric odds, margin included, only reflects a 37.7% chance of a New Zealand victory. Consequently, we seize the opportunity and place a value bet on NZ win at odds 2.65.
Suppose we bet ₹10,000 on New Zealand as match-winner. What is our expected value on this bet?
Expected Value (EV) for a single bet is calculated using the EV formula:
Since our potential profit is ₹16,500 (₹10,000 * 2.65 - ₹10,000) and our true chance of winning the bet is 40%, we can easily calculate our bet EV:
₹16,500 * 40% - ₹10,000 * 60% = ₹600
Simply put, we can expect to make a ₹600 profit on average if we can place this bet numerous times.
Try to become a specialist in a specific cricket market or league. Online betting websites in India frequently offer cricket odds-rates, which they approximate by using non-league specific prediction models. A sportsbook website that is not contemplating league specific prediction data into its prediction models is vulnerable and will be penalized by cricket betting specialists like ourselves.
Thriving on cricket odds rate anomalies can be a way to make a living for the skillful bettor. Specific cricket market selections are more difficult to give a fair probability prediction for than others. We suggest that you initially target secondary odds markets like Over runs or Total Runs instead of a high volume Cricket markets like the Match Winner. The secondary markets are trickier for a bookmaker to price compared to a highly liquid market. On an eventful cricket betting exchange like Betfair, where most of the betting volume is being staked on the match winner market, the collective opinion (wisdom of the crowd) is fast to adjust the odds rates efficiently.
Always keep in mind. The theory of cricket value betting relies upon accurately assessing all probability outcomes for the odds market related to the bet-selection. Constantly refuse to place bets with a negative expected value, and always follow a healthy bankroll management strategy. Pursuing the best cricket betting tips and strategies will pay off. By strengthening your probability evaluation tactics, and mastering the best bankroll management practices, you have already come halfway. The rest of the way comprises of hard work.