ENG vs WI 2nd Test Day 1 match prediction 16 Jul 2020

England no sure thing to bounce back - but better bets await

West Indies lead the three-Test series 1-0 after a pulsating four-wicket win over England in the first Test.

Jermaine Blackwood's brilliant 95 helped the Windies chase down the 200-run total England had set them on the final day.

That puts the tourists on course to retain the Wisden Trophy they won with the series victory in the Caribbean 18 months ago. Avoid defeat at Old Trafford, and the best the hosts can hope for is to draw the series.

England are a short price to win the second Test at a best-priced 1.4, but our prediction model actually gives West Indies a better chance of victory than the 5.00 odds the oddsmakers give them.

However, there are more interesting bets than just the match market. Here are our tips and predictions for the second Test.

Stuart Broad to return in style

Stuart Broad publicly said he was "angry, frustrated and gutted" to be dropped for the first Test, and we're going to take a chance that he'll be fired up if he is recalled for the second Test.

Broad had been in fine form, finishing as the team's top wicket-taker in the 2019 Ashes and the away series in South Africa at the end of the year.

The 34-year-old had also played the previous 51 home Tests, so it was something of a surprise to see him miss out.

England certainly could have benefited from this bowling in the opening Test. Having won the toss, Ben Stokes' side batted first in grey, damp conditions which would have suited Broad's bowling.

In the end, it was England's poor batting that ultimately cost them the match. The bowling attack of Jofra Archer, Mark Wood and James Anderson did well enough, but one of those players looks likely to be replaced by Broad.

Having made public his displeasure at being dropped, Broad must prove the selectors made a mistake then with a big performance in Manchester.

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Blackwood too big a price to ignore for top batsman

Jermaine Blackwood's brilliant 95 pushed the Windies to victory in the first Test, and the bookies are surely understating the batsman's chances of another top performance. Blackwood is as big as 9.00 to be top West Indies batsman, and that looks like a value bet to us.

Blackwood's performance even surprised his teammates with all-rounder Carlos Braithwaite saying after the match:"Blackwood batted eloquently, classy, calmly, carefree - adjectives you don't normally use with him."

But this isn't the first time Blackwood has raised his game against England. He was one of the best players in the famous win at Headingly in 2007 and showed great restraint to rein in his usual all-out attacking style and replace it with a measured, calculated one.

The 28-year-old rode his luck on more than one occasion, but a similar cool act in the second Test could reward punters on at 9.00.

Kraigg Brathwaite, Shai Hope, and John Campbell are three of the five batsmen ahead of Blackwood in this market, but none shone in the first Test. Braithwaite was best by far having made 65 in the first innings - but just four in the second.

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Stokes a fair price to take man-of-the-match honours

Ben Stokes will be furious that his first match as captain was a miserable defeat. While the West Indies played good cricket to chase down the 200 runs they needed for victory, it was very much a case of what could have been for England.

A terrible first innings when the team were all out for just 204 - Stokes top-scored with 43 but only two other batsmen made over 30 runs - was followed by losing five wickets for just 30 runs on the fourth evening.

That was compounded by not taking their chances - notably in getting Blackwood out - on the fifth day. However you look at the match, England really should have won.

Stokes was England's leading batsman and also helped take six wickets, so it's fair to say the stand-in captain was not at fault.

He will be desperate to lift his side to a convincing victory and assuming he can do that and continue his excellent form, then the 8.50 available for Stokes to be man-of-the-match looks more than fair.

Our advice - get it while you can!

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