Get ready for IPL 2020! Our research wants to show punters how to include different variables in their betting strategy. You will be at a disadvantage if you miss even one factor which can influence a cricket match.
Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) won IPL 2014, which allowed them to qualify for the Champions League T20. However, the start of their campaign wasn't promising. KKR won only two and lost three in the first five games played in the United Emirates. Their last match against the Rajasthan Royals was lost due to boundary count after the super over had tied.
KKR's form remained poor after returning to India as the team lost two more matches, which made it five losses from seven games. But the batting order was changed due to placing Robin Uthappa as an opener. He went on to play very well with his 660 runs during the tournament seeing him be the highest run-scorer.
Another KKR player, Sunil Narine, became the second-highest wicket-taker. Thus, the team could recover from the losing streak and win all of their next seven games. KKR ended the group stage with 18 points as the Chennai Super Kings had, but their better net run rate placed them on a higher position in the points table.
Another question that worries cricket fans is who will replace Uthappa? The results of IPL 2019 make you notice a cricketer as Andre Russell with 510 runs per season. Given the above, you can use these data into your sports betting strategy.
Just a simple calculation tells us that KKR tries to distribute their forces in this way that win more games in the second part of the season. In the UAE's stadiums, this team will keep the same tactic.
If we imagine a repeat of six years ago, for the first seven games their winning chance will be lesser on 17% compared to 60% in the last matches.
Therefore, bettors might want to consider opposing KKR early on to see if that pattern holds up. Then later in the season, wait for a dramatic upturn in form.
The UAE's stadiums are not home grounds, which make them neutral venues for each team. Thus, none of the franchises can be too familiar with the pitches. In the UAE, cricket grounds are different with more spinner friendly pitches. Besides, these pitches are dry, promoting high scoring games as it can be favourable to batsmen.
The UAE's pitches also provide an excellent bowling spree for teams, especially for spinners and medium pacers. For example, spinners can lead the attack, while medium pacers can prove beneficial when pitching at the right spot. Such news is good for teams that make investments in these categories of players. Also, all-rounders' presence in a group is a tremendous advantage as power batting is necessary to cover the vast grounds. Players with a better technique will perform well on Emirates' slow pitches.
The home advantage in IPL season 2019 was 58%. This means that the team with fans support wins more often than the opposite side by a significant margin. Of course, this value will change relevant to the form, injuries, and team strengths.
In the UAE, cricketers lose the domestic edge, and the chance at this case will be 50:50 in a basic sense. Therefore, the skills of teams and their organization come to the fore more so than ever.
The UAE leg of IPL 2014 provided many games with high scores, one super-over, and even low-scoring nail-biting finishes. The defending champions, Mumbai Indians, couldn't win any of their five games, while the other seven teams, including even underdogs, won at least two games.
Thus, underdogs like Royal Challengers Bangalore and Delhi Capitals could manage four points from five matches each in the UAE, while Rajasthan Royals got six points.
Let's consider how these teams played in the UAE leg.
Royal Challengers Bangalore started with two convincing wins against Mumbai and Delhi by eight and seven wickets, respectively. However, they lost the other three games in the United Emirates, including an unfortunate defeat against KRR. 40% is the track record of wins at the UAE's pitches.
Delhi Capitals (then named Daredevils) lost the opening match to Bangalore but won the next game against KKR due to four wickets. They have the same stats as Royal Challengers Bangalore at the 40% of wins.
Rajasthan Royals began the UAE leg with a victory against Sunrisers Hyderabad. Their winning record was at 60%. But this value is too high because they had an easy schedule, facing not so well-organized opponents.
Mumbai Indians, which is the most successful franchise in the tournament history now, showed the worst results among all teams during the UAE leg. All five games held on the United Emirates' stadiums in 2014 were lost by pretty big margins.
Lots of Mumbai's players underperformed, which led to a disastrous outing. The team did recover after returning to India. Mumbai Indians won seven of their nine matches and entered the playoffs. However, the defeat against CSK stopped them on their way to the IPL title.
While media mostly focused on the team's batting, which was warming up very slowly during IPL 2014, the critical problem of Mumbai's performance was bowling. For example, in all cases that season when Mumbai Indians bowled first, they missed more than 160 runs.
The team's bowling problem was that they depended on Malinga, Khan, and Singh as the best three bowlers. But the supporting cast, including Anderson, Pollard, and Ojha, was quite mediocre due to the economy rates that were eight runs per over and only five wickets between them.
Thus, during the 2014 season, Mumbai's bowlers tried to maintain an appropriate line and length, lost many extras (39 in the matches when they bowled first), and provided a greater number of juicy full tosses than cricket experts and fans could expect from the champions.
The bookies regard Mumbai Indians, the defending champions, as the main favourites of IPL 2020, and place Sunrisers Hydebrad at No.2. Meanwhile, Chennai Super Kings, which occupied the second position last season, is placed at No.3. Such a prediction can come as a surprise for many CSK fans, especially if to consider two final matches and one title during the last two years. However, we expect this team to become the winners of IPL 2020 in the UAE.
The underdogs' playing style in the United Emirates won't differ from their performance on India's pitches, which can also be proved by the 2014 UAE leg's statistics. CSK won't face any significant challenges on the UAE grounds, excluding Mumbai Indians.
Mumbai's squad is the strongest on paper, but past failures as defending champions (a terrible record) and their previous UAE form are enough to take them on in the outright betting markets.
Undoubtedly these are starting chances calculated by bookies. It's just a smart time to make a bet to the most famous team like Mumbai Indians, but the odds become lesser if that team wins the first match or vice versa.
Betting companies evaluate probabilities based on the popularity scale of cricket T20 participants. This means that the casual bettor is likely to place a bet on a more famous franchise. For example, the Chennai Super Kings have more chances to win the competition, but bookie always set up lesser odds for Mumbai Indians. Right here is an opportunity to beat the gambling company - create your betting strategy, including only the team's statistics, without gamblers' biases and behaviours.
To date, all leading media and cricket expert agree that team from Mumbai have an advantage over their competitors. That means Mumbai are surely over-estimated in the betting market, and betting bets are on offer for shrewd gamblers.