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The Mzansi Super League is the latest addition to the T20 international roadshow, with South Africa setting up their own glitzy version of the 20 over showcase. Despite it being a relatively new concept with only one edition of the tournament being played so far, our experts know all there is to know about the goings-on in the rainbow nation and produce the most accurate Mzansi Super League match predictions. Here’s how.
Before we get into the technical side of things, we must mention that the experts we have running the numbers have a deep connection with cricket, having grown up watching the game from a very early age. In fact, the predictions they provide mean that they can earn a living from calling the action. Now, to the analytical side and how they are able to call the outcome correctly time after time.
First off, we use our prediction model to simulate the potential outcomes of a game at least 100 times. This enables us to find the correct outcome probabilities for all the various markets in the IPL. Having done that, the tipster model automatically converts the betting market outcome probabilities into odds. It’s now time for the model to generate a comparison report which lists all the best betting tips. Keep in mind, this tipster model only flags the best Mzansi Super League betting tips with the highest expected value.
Now, we’re not finished just yet, with the supercomputer having done its thing and given us a list of the best betting tips for a Mzansi Super League fixture, we now hand over the findings to our experts and let them add the information only lifelong cricket watchers can add. For instance, they will give us their take on the weather, injuries and anything else that pops up in the build-up to a fixture.
After they’ve added their expert opinion, our Mzansi Super League match bet is able to go live.
The first innings of any T20 fixture lights the way for us in terms of letting our experts know what the pitch might be doing given that you’ll always have a bit more information at hand once a team has batted. We monitor the events of the first innings extremely closely and use the data available to us to make the most accurate prediction of how the game is likely to end up.
When the floodgates open and a team begins to pile on the runs during a certain over, history tells us that the run rate is about to dramatically increase which should help a team setting a score or chasing one. It’s these moments during an over, where the likes of an Aaron Finch or Ab de Villiers are able to put the bowling team under pressure, which invariably changes the course of a game.
Similarly, an over that isn’t scored off can also have the same effect as the bowling team gets the upper hand. The rule of thumb for us is that if a team isn’t scoring, they are in danger of losing a game.
Good deliveries put the batting team under the cosh and we know that when you’re under the cosh, impending disaster doesn’t loom too far away. Indeed, our experts are on hand to monitor a spell of bowling that is likely to make the batting team play in a way that will decrease their odds of winning, whether it be taking on a ball that wasn’t there to be hit or coming down the wicket to a dangerous spinner, we watch it all and adjust our predictions accordingly.
The fast track to winning a T20 game is managing to take wickets constantly throughout the 20 overs. It can be done and we find that bowlers born in the country of the event normally utilize the bowling conditions best. The top three wicket-takers of the 2019 Mzansi Super League were all South African and it won’t be a surprise to see Dale Steyn atop of the list.
These homegrown heroes are likely to be the ones taking the wickets which should give their teams a greater chance of winning.
A big target in a T20 game is always going to put the cat among the pigeons. Indeed, any team chasing over 200 is likely to be quite unsettled with it all to do which is why we strongly favour any team getting over 180. Even if a team can structure a run chase with a target of how many they need an over, planning it and actually doing it are two completely different things.
We often find that scoreboard pressure plays a massive part in deciding who wins a T20 game.
If a team is going to get anywhere near a big target they have one chance, and it’s during the powerplay. The first six overs and 36 balls present an opportunity to get ahead of the rate and ease the task ahead of the following 14 overs. Slow going during the powerplay and as far as we are concerned, that’s all she wrote for the batting team’s chances of winning, whether setting a target or chasing.
If we were to have a look back at the T20 Blast game back in 2017 when Notts recorded the highest powerplay in the history of the game when they scored 106-0. At the time they were chasing an intimidating 183 set by Durham and managed to get there in the 14th over, you can see why we base our predictions largely on what happens in the powerplay.
In that particular game where Notts bludgeoned the white ball to an inch of its life, Alex Hales scored an incredible 95 off 30 balls, going at a strike rate of 316.67. That is almost unheard of any it begs the question whether Hales is human but then again, our stats tell us that the Englishman isn’t alone when it comes to causing complete and utter carnage with willow in hand.
We have a detailed list of all the explosive hitters in the world game and always work out how effective they could potentially be when we come up with the best Mzansi Super League bet.
Bowlers these days have a daunting task on their hands trying to contain batsmen in a game that is designed to produce massive sixes and pulsating knocks. That said, our experts have collected data from 1000s of T20 games and have pinpointed who the very best operators are with ball in hand.
Bowlers like Rashid Khan, Mitchell Santner and Andile Phehlukwayo, who are on a list of the best T20 bowlers in the world at the moment, can easily spin a game on its head which is why we analyze the bowlers for any Mzansi Super League fixture on the day and tailor our predictions correctly.
Working in tandem over the course of 20 overs is not very common when you consider that T20 cricket is suited to one man taking the game by the scruff of the neck. We have, however, seen what happens when a team has a couple of batsmen or even bowlers who complement each other to the point where they can win the game as a pair. Needless to say, we are aware of these team players when putting together our betting tips.
One of the more intriguing aspects of T20 cricket and in many ways, cricket as a whole is the outcome of the toss. Our experts encourage critical thinking when it comes to having a bet on the Msanzi Super League but in the case of a toss, we are happy to admit it is blind luck. There’s no other way to put it given that it is just a flip of a coin, that however, doesn’t mean that we don’t make our match decisions based on the outcome of how it lands.
So much can be decided during the toss which is why we monitor it like a hawk and always keep in mind every eventuality when making our predictions.