Who will win the 2020 T20 World Cup?

T20 World Cup prediction model and tips

Coronavirus has sadly interrupted the 2020 cricket season. But let's hope the T20 World Cup won’t be affected as we think we know which team will lift the trophy on November 15!

Do you agree with our tips and analysis? Read on to find out as we answer the big questions: Can India win the T20 World Cup? Are Australia a good bet for the tournament? Can West Indies be successful again?

How we came to our 2020 T20 World Cup winner prediction

  • Millions of match simulations covering every possibility for all 45 games
  • Innovative analysis of the latest team data and news to identify pricing errors
  • Advanced API comparison of bookmaker odds with our prediction models

Our pioneering best-in-class prediction software deals with raw data and is unaffected by personal opinions. Betting, like cricket, is all about fine margins. And while T20 is the most unpredictable form of cricket, our analysis sorts the certainty from the uncertainty.

Here we examine the leading eight teams and give you a confident T20 World Cup winner prediction.

Let’s get to the team analysis!

Australia

Australia cricket team

Key T20 World Cup stats:

  • Australia have made just one final (losing to England in 2010)
  • A win record of 55.17% is sixth-best of teams to have played in more than one tourney
  • Second in the T20 world rankings as of March 2020

Hosts Australia head the betting at a best-priced 3/1. But some firms are quoting just 9/4!

A winning bet of ₹200 at 4.00 (3/1) returns ₹800. But a winning wager of ₹200 at 3.25 (9/4) returns only ₹650 - a difference of ₹150 for taking poor odds. Cricket Prediction always finds you the best odds available.

Despite home advantage, our analysis has Australia as too short in the betting. Our professionals consider them vulnerable favourites.

Odds of 4.00 (3/1) imply a winning chance of 25%. But our model predicts 18%, meaning you would want to take a price of at least 5.50 (9/2) to be getting a fair price.

Our advice: avoid backing Australia. The Baggy Greens are in a difficult group with two-time champions West Indies, Pakistan and New Zealand.

They boast a strong batting and bowling line-up but haven’t truly shone on the biggest T20 stage. Australia also face extra pressure after the women’s team won the Women’s T20 World Cup in front of record home crowds in March.

England

England cricket team

Key T20 World Cup stats:

  • Champions in 2010 and runners-up in 2016
  • Are the only side to have played all six tourneys and have a win percentage under 50% (48.38%)
  • Third in the T20 world rankings as of March 2020

Current ODI world champions England are capable of brilliance and uselessness in equal measure.

But, with a pair of final appearances to their name and big batters in the side, bookies have them at a general 5.00 (4/1) to win the tournament for a second time.

Some big operators are offering 5.50 (9/2), though, and a few as short as 3.75 (11/4)!

Cricket Prediction gives England a chance of success at 19%, which is in line with what the best odds represent (20%).

Our advice: wait. England represent neither poor nor good value. If you think the Three Lions will win, delay until closer to the tournament to place your bets. The price will be similar, but you will have more information to place an informed bet.

Group 2, with India and South Africa the main rivals for a semi-final place, looks weaker than Group 1. However, a negative is that England have qualified for the last four just twice from six previous appearances.

New Zealand

New Zealand cricket team

Key T20 World Cup stats:

  • Their previous best result is two semi-final defeats
  • Only England (48.38%) have a worse win percentage than NZ (53.33%) of teams to have played all six tourneys
  • Sixth in the T20 world rankings as of March 2020

New Zealand surprised many people when making the final of the ODI World Cup last year, but we cannot see them putting that Super Over loss behind them and going one better in Australia.

Our analysis puts their winning chance at just 6.7% – meaning the best odds of 9.00 (8/1) are far too low. That price implies an 11% likelihood of lifting the trophy – no way, say our experts!

The prediction software didn’t assess their prospects of escaping Group 1 highly. Even if the Kiwis did, they would likely face England, South Africa or India in the last four.

Both England and South Africa have a far better head-to-head record. And while New Zealand lead India overall (8-6, 2 ties), the Men in Blue have lost just one of the last seven between the sides.

Our advice: avoid backing New Zealand. Gary Stead’s side upset the odds in England last summer, but they are well behind the best T20 teams and will need massive performances.

Our T20 World Cup winner prediction is India!

India cricket team

Key T20 World Cup stats:

  • Have the 2nd best match win percentage of teams that have played more than one tournament – 64.06% (Sri Lanka’s is 64.28%)
  • Have lost the least T20 World Cup matches (11) of all the major nations
  • Virat Kohli has the highest batting average (86.33) of any player (minimum 10 innings). The next highest is Michael Hussey with 54.62.

India’s win over arch-rivals Pakistan in the inaugural 2007 final will live long in the memory of India fans. But since then it’s mostly been a disappointing tournament format for the Men in Blue.

Losing to Sri Lanka in the 2014 final hurt, especially as India boasted the top tournament run-scorer in Virat Kohli and two of the top five wicket-takers, Ravichandran Ashwin and Amit Mishra.

Yet, there are strong reasons to be positive about India this time, and our analysis shows they are overpriced at 4.50 (7/2) to be champions again.

We believe India should be favourites with a winning probability of nearly 29%, equivalent to odds of 3.50 (5/2).

Our advice: back India at 4.50 (7/2). They have won their last four T20 series, beating Sri Lanka, West Indies and New Zealand (thrashed them 5-0).

With superstars Lokesh Rahul and Kohli in the top 10 T20 batsman rankings, they have the firepower needed for this format.

While the middle-order remains a concern, Ravi Shastri has time to get that right. And with strong all-rounders, and improving bowlers, India should go close to winning.

Not having the pressure of playing on home soil – as was the case four years ago – will also help.

BACK INDIA TO WIN AT 4.50

Analysis of the other top eight teams

West Indies are the only country to have won the trophy more than once. Only 10th in the T20 world rankings, but save their best for this tournament.

Despite being so unpredictable, we give the Windies a 15% probability of winning a third title. A tough pool may see them raise their game and odds of 10.00 (9/1) underestimate Phil Simmon’s men. They should be closer to 6.50 (11/2).

South Africa are third out of six teams ranked by win percentage in tournament history, but the only one not to have made a final (teams that have played more than one tourney).

Proteas can be backed at 10.00 (9/1), but are also trading at 6.50 (11/2). Our model has them in the middle at 11.8%, equivalent to 8.50 (15/2). That would increase slightly if rumours of AB de Villiers’ return prove true.

Pakistan surprisingly lead the T20 world rankings despite a poor 2019. Deserve respect as previous winners (2009) and finalists (2007), but have gone out in the Super 10 in the last two events, winning only three matches.

There’s currently no consistency with team choice, and the Falcons are overly reliant on Babar Azam. Nonetheless, the bookmaker’s best odds still imply a winning chance of 7.7%. Our prediction was just 4%, meaning odds of 25.00 (24/1) would be realistic – not the 13.00 (12/1) offered.

Afghanistan have come a long since getting full-member status from the ICC in 2017 and are above Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in the T20 world rankings. But they will need the likes of Rashid Khan, Hazratullah Zazai and Mohammed Nabi to play the matches of their lives if they are to escape Group 1.

They are clear outsiders at 81.00 (80/1) with the oddsmakers – an implied probability of 1.2%. Sorry, Afghanistan fans – our model predicts their success even lower at only 0.8% or 125.00 (124/1).

The best T20 World Cup tips

  • Winner: India at best-price 4.50 (7/2)
  • Best outsider: West Indies at best-price 10.00 (9/1)

* All stats quoted refer to T20 World Cups and T20 formats only! All stats and odds correct as of March 27, 2020.