Baroda vs Bengal Prediction - Vijay Hazare Trophy 2025-26
BAR Baroda
BEN Bengal
Vijay Hazare Trophy 2025-26
Baroda vs Bengal Match Recap
Result: Baroda won by 4 wickets (67 balls remaining). BEN 205/10 (47.4 ov) vs BAR 209/6 (38.5 ov).
Pre-Match Probability: Bengal 70% | Baroda 30%
Value Bet: Bengal @ 1.61 (+7.9% edge) → Lost -₹100
Match Summary
Bengal batted first—and collapsed. 205 all out in 47.4 overs. A total far below par. Raj Limbani was the destroyer: 5/65—Player of the Match. Bengal's vaunted batting lineup failed spectacularly. Abishek Porel (38) top-scored. Nobody else passed 35.
Baroda's chase was steady. Shashwat Rawat (61) anchored the early overs. A wobble at 4 wickets for 7 runs briefly raised Bengal's hopes. Then Krunal Pandya and Priyanshu Moliya steadied—both hit half-centuries. Chase completed in 38.5 overs with 11 overs to spare.
Mohammed Shami did strike early—dismissing Mitesh Patel in the third over. But the damage was done by Bengal's batting. International-class bowling cannot save you if the team scores 205.
Analysis Review
Overestimated: Bengal's batting after the 383 chase in Round 1. Assumed the batting form would continue. It didn't. A 383 chase is an outlier—not a baseline. Sample size error.
Overestimated: The value of international pace on a flat Rajkot deck. Shami took 1 wicket. Baroda's medium pacers—Raj Limbani (5/65)—outperformed. Conditions matter more than reputation.
Underweighted: Krunal Pandya's leadership. He steadied Baroda twice—once with batting (half-century) and once with tactics. Domestic experience in crunch situations was underrated.
Validated: Hardik Pandya's absence was correctly flagged as a risk. He remained unavailable. But Baroda won regardless—the bowling thesis was wrong.
Betting Outcome
Baroda took the win. The 7.9% edge did not convert. At odds of 1.61, this cost -₹100 on the stake. Bengal's batting implosion—205 all out—was unforeseeable based on Round 1 data.
Variance happens. But the lesson: Round 1 form is not predictive. A 383 chase followed by a 205 collapse within 48 hours. Domestic cricket is high-variance. Adjust confidence accordingly.
