Haryana vs Saurashtra Prediction - Vijay Hazare Trophy 2025-26

Result: Haryana won by 6 wickets. SAU 253/10 vs HAR 256/4 (39 ov).

Pre-Match Probability: Saurashtra 68% | Haryana 32%

Value Bet: Saurashtra @ 1.49 (+1.0% edge) → Lost -₹100

Match Summary

Saurashtra batted first. Harvik Desai scored 101. At 194/3, Saurashtra looked set for 300+. Then the collapse. 7 wickets for 59 runs. All out for 253. Anshul Kamboj took 3/30 for Haryana.

Haryana's chase was clinical. Yashvardhan Dalal—wicketkeeper-batter on List A debut—scored 164* off 135 balls. Over 60% of the target from one player. Chase completed in 39 overs with 11 overs to spare.

Analysis Review

Overestimated: Round 1 form. Saurashtra's 346 chase and Haryana's 267 collapse suggested a clear gulf. One match is insufficient sample size. Early tournament form is volatile.

Validated: Saurashtra's batting depth was real—Desai's 101 and 194/3 confirmed the assessment. The gap was in Haryana's bowling and individual X-factor.

Underweighted: Breakout potential. Yashvardhan Dalal was an unknown quantity. A 164* on List A debut is rare but domestic cricket regularly produces these performances.

Outcome

Bet lost. -₹100 on Saurashtra at 1.49 odds. This bet was placed before we introduced the 2% minimum edge threshold. Edge was only +1.0%—under current rules this would be a SKIP.

Dalal's 164* on debut was unforeseeable. This loss validates why we now require 2% minimum edge—thin margins offer no protection against breakout performances.