Karnataka vs Kerala Prediction - Vijay Hazare Trophy 2025-26

Result: Karnataka won by 8 wickets (10 balls remaining). KER 284/7 (50 ov) vs KAR 285/2 (48.2 ov).

Pre-Match Probability: Karnataka 65% | Kerala 35%

Value Bet: Karnataka @ 1.57 (+1.3% edge) → Won +₹57

Match Summary

Kerala batted first. 284/7 in 50 overs. A competitive total, but the defending champions were never troubled. Mohammed Azharuddeen (84 off 58) and Baba Aparajith (71 off 62) were the main contributors for Kerala.

Karnataka's chase was clinical. Captain Mayank Agarwal fell early for 2. Then Devdutt Padikkal and Karun Nair took over. A 223-run partnership off 234 balls for the second wicket—the match-winning stand.

Padikkal scored his second consecutive hundred: 124 off 137 balls. Karun Nair was Player of the Match with 130* off 130 balls—run-a-ball, composed, dominant. Karnataka cruised home with 10 balls to spare.

Analysis Review

Validated: Karnataka's batting depth was the core thesis. Predicted they had superior batting—they scored 285/2 chasing 284. The Padikkal-Nair partnership (223 runs) confirmed this assessment.

Validated: Padikkal's form. Identified his 147 in Round 1 as a key factor. He followed up with 124—back-to-back hundreds. Consistent run-getter.

Underweighted: Karun Nair. Mentioned him briefly but he delivered the match-winning performance. His 130* off 130 was the difference. Former India player showing his class in domestic cricket.

Overestimated: Kerala's bowling threat. Flagged Aparajith's 5/15 in Round 1 as a danger. He went for 61 runs in 10 overs here. Karnataka's batting quality neutralised Kerala's best weapon.

Outcome

Bet won. +₹57 profit on Karnataka at 1.57 odds. This bet was placed before we introduced the 2% minimum edge threshold. Edge was only +1.3%—under current rules this would be a SKIP, but it converted.

The defending champions continue their title defence with a comfortable 8-wicket victory.