Madhya Pradesh vs Tamil Nadu Prediction - Vijay Hazare Trophy 2025-26

Result: Madhya Pradesh won by 2 wickets. TN 280/10 (49.3 ov) vs MP 283/8 (49.2 ov).

Pre-Match Probability: Tamil Nadu 58% | Madhya Pradesh 42%

No Bet: Edge was -1.0% (below 2% threshold). Prediction incorrect.

Match Summary

Tamil Nadu batted first. 280 all out in 49.3 overs. A competitive total, but below the expected 300+ par score for this venue. Govinth G was the destroyer for MP: 4/54. Tamil Nadu's batting never kicked on—multiple starts but no one converted to a match-winning score.

MP's chase was a rollercoaster. Yash Dubey (92) and Himanshu Mantri (90)—Player of the Match—built a 178-run partnership that should have been match-winning. Then 5 wickets for 35 runs. MP wobbled from 192/2 to 227/7. Nerves everywhere.

MP needed 54 from 54 balls with 3 wickets in hand. Venkatesh Iyer steadied the ship. Chase completed in the final over with just 2 wickets remaining. Thriller.

Analysis Review

Validated: The "coin-flip" assessment. Called this 58-42. MP won in the final over with 2 wickets remaining. Could have gone either way. The margin between the teams was exactly as thin as predicted.

Overestimated: Tamil Nadu's bowling threat. Flagged Gurjapneet Singh (4/32 in Round 1) as the key danger. He went for 54 runs in 10 overs here—economy of 5.4 but no wickets. MP's batters handled him.

Underweighted: MP's batting depth. Yash Dubey (92) and Himanshu Mantri (90) were exceptional. Dubey was mentioned for his Round 1 century, but Mantri wasn't highlighted. He was Player of the Match.

Underweighted: MP's bowling. Govinth G (4/54) wasn't mentioned. He broke Tamil Nadu's batting and prevented them from posting 300+.

Outcome

No bet placed. Edge was -1.0%—below the 2% minimum threshold. The prediction was wrong, but the SKIP decision was correct. A 58% prediction losing is within expected variance—42% happens. No money lost. Process over outcome.