The "Challenger" Stars vs Thunder match prediction

Melbourne Stars will host Sydney Thunder in the ‘Challenger’ of the 2019-20 Big Bash League at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, this Thursday evening.

The temperatures will rise when Melbourne Stars and Sydney Thunder face-off at the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground, this coming week with the winner to qualify for the title clash against Sydney Sixers later on. Sydney Thunder, having finished in the fifth have produced an extraordinary turnaround winning consecutive matches against Hobart Hurricanes and Adelaide Strikers in the Eliminator and the Knock-out respectively. Melbourne, finishing on the other hand, lost to Sixes and find themselves in a do-or-die situation.

Anyways, the contest is going to be a mouth-watering one and albeit all 22 players are going to give their best shot. For us, it would be a great opportunity to win a lot of money by wagering on the best bets from the market. I have already shortlisted the deals from the market which are likely to win. Just go through my analysis and place the bets.

Alex Hales has scored more than 23 in last five

This might be monotonous to some extent if you have read the previous articles, but the English batsman has never disappointed us, that’s the reason we cannot ignore this bet.

In the last five matches, Alex Hales has scored a total of 280 runs at an average of 56 runs per innings having scored 59, 54, 22, 63, 85 respectively, as you can see, he has scored north of 23 runs in four of those occasions and missed by just 2 runs in the remaining one. When playing away from home, his scores in the last five matches are 59, 60, 63, 85, 26 (293 runs at an average of 58.6 per innings) and has passed the 23-tun mark each time.

In the last match he played at the MCG, Hales scored 26 runs, which again works in our favour. Overall, he has been phenomenal in this season of the Big Bash League, having scored a total of 568 (second highest scorer this season) runs in 16 matches, scoring at a rate of 40.57 runs per innings with a top score of 85 which includes 6 fifties. I personally feel there’s no reason not to invest on this bet.

Thunder have had the better opening stand in last five

Like the previous one, this case is also an unputdownable one and with odds of 2.0, it would not be wise not to invest money on it, especially with Usman Khawaja and Alex Hales in scintillating form.

In the last five matches, the Thunder have had the better opening partnership in four occasions, having scored 226 runs overall before the fall of the first wicket at a rate of 45.2 per innings and conceded just 199 runs on the contrary. Meanwhile, Melbourne Stars have had the better opening stand in just two of their last five matches, managing to score just 96 runs at an average of 19.2 runs per innings and simultaneously shipping in 139 runs (27.8 runs per innings).

Even when the Stars play at their home ground, they have been the second best side on just two occasions. On the flip side, Sydney Thunder have had the better opening stand in four of their last five away matches, racking up 216 runs (43.2 runs on an average) while letting in 190 runs. In the last five H2H matches, Melbourne Stars never had a better opening stand, with their openers managing to score just 84 runs (16.8 per innings) compared to Thunder’s 208 runs (41.6 per innings). What are you waiting for? Just place the bet.

Daniel Sams is a top bowler

Odds of 3.25 for the bowler who has been the star of the BBL? Technically the odds should be around 1.80. Without complaining much, we should grab the opportunity with arms wide open.

In the last four matches, Daniel Sams has taken a total of 10 wickets (more than 2 per match), his figures - 3/26, 2/24, 1/16, 4/34, he was the top bowler in two of those matches. On the other hand, his away record also follows a similar trend, having taken 9 wickets apart from being the pick of the bowlers twice. In 16 matches he has played this season, the speedster has taken a staggering 30 wickets at an astounding average of 14.0 with best figures of 4/34. Incredible, isn’t it?

Sams has only played four matches against the Stars and scalped eight wickets (2 wickets per match on an average). He was the best bowler for his side in two of the above mentioned occasions with best figures of 3 for 5. His figures are too good and with the way he bowled against Adelaide Strikers in the last match, there’s no stopping him from hogging the limelight once again. And there’s no stopping us from multiplying our investment more than three times by placing the bet.

To spice up this "Challenger" in Big Bash League we have three additional betting tips,

Let’s start it off with a reasonable bet that covers the entire game and has all the aspects of it adding to our calculations. To make it easier for you to grasp, we have first separated the calculations for the two teams. But before that, let’s clarify the ask for this bet. To look at the teams separately - (we have taken 298/2 = ) the team alone has to score 149 and less. So, let’s look at the form of the hosts of this game- Melbourne Stars. In the last five BBL games, they have posted totals of 199, 115, 151, 125, 141. This gives us an average of 146.2 and also gives us three cases of the team scoring less than 149, three out of three being at home.

Meanwhile, the Sydney Thunder - in their last five BBL appearances - have scored 115, 197, 97, 128, 153. Hence, giving us three cases of the prerequisite being fulfilled, and the average total is also 138. So all the above-mentioned data point to the total being under 138.

Moreover, head to head, the numbers(form guide) for the hosts are 148, 143, 137, 74, 147 and that of the Sydney Thunder are: 145, 142, 135, 181, 149. Hence the requirement is fulfilled in all five innings of the Melbourne Stars, whereas, the Sydney Thunder have met the criterion in three out of five innings.

Now, looking at the total in these head to head games, we get: 293, 285, 272, 255, 296. That’s basically all five cases supporting our cause. As the odds for both the teams’ aggregate total to be under 298.5 placed at 1.83, I definitely think this is one bet you shouldn’t miss out on.

The two teams have big hitters in their sides, however, that does not necessarily mean they deal in sixes. What we’ve done in, we dig in deep into the numbers to find out that the six hitting frequency of both teams is rather low and the data we found, does support our cause. Here’s what we found.

Looking at the two teams’ head to head numbers, we have found out that the Melbourne Stars have a form of 3, 3, 3, 3, 1 when playing the Sydney Sixers who have scored 3, 2, 4, 8, 4 sixes across the last five contests. That gives us totals of 6, 5, 7, 11, 5 sixes across the same head to head games. That gives us an average of 6.8 sixes per game. And hence, it further validates that the total number of sixes to be scored in this game will be under 7.5.

Now, filtering the numbers at the MCG, we have found out an average of 5.5 sixes scored across games. As the odds for the teams to hit an aggregate total of under 7.5 sixes placed at 1.83, we believe it’s a bet that will make you enjoy the sixes 2x times and with double the excitement.

Now comes that department that’s most underrated yet the highest grosser in any T20 game, unless the players just love running for singles or doubles. But don’t worry, we know these players too well to understand that they do deal in fours.

Looking at the two teams’ head to head numbers, we have found out that the Melbourne Stars have a form of 16, 13, 11, 3, 15 when playing the Sydney Sixers who have scored 9, 13, 6, 12, 18 fours across their preceding five BBL contests. That gives us totals of 25, 26, 17, 15, 33

Fours across the said head to head games between the Stars and the Thunder. That gives us three cases of the criteria being fulfilled. And hence, it further validates that the total number of sixes to be scored in this game will be over 23.5

Now, filtering the numbers at the MCG, we have found out an average of 29 sixes scored across games. Moreover, these two sides are filled with power hitting talents like Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis, Usman Khawaja, Alex Hales. All these numbers point at the teams hitting boundaries more often than not. And with the odds of it happening placed at 1.72, I believe it’s one of the safest yet winning bets from the game.