Betting Bankroll Management
Unit systems, staking strategies, and the mathematics of survival
A cricket bettor with a 55% win rate — which would be excellent over a full season — still faces an 82% probability of hitting a 5-bet losing streak within their first 100 bets. At 10% stakes per bet, that streak erases half your bankroll.
This guide covers the mathematics professional bettors use to survive variance. Not theory. Practical systems you can apply to your next IPL or T20 bet.
What is a Betting Bankroll?
Your bankroll is money set aside exclusively for betting — completely separate from rent, savings, and emergency funds. Think of it as a trading account: you would not mix your stock portfolio with your grocery money.
Cardinal Rules
- 1. Only use money you can lose completely — if losing it affects your life, it is too much
- 2. Never top up from other funds — if your bankroll depletes, stop or save more
- 3. Keep it separate — use a dedicated account or betting wallet
- 4. Set a loss limit — decide beforehand when you will stop for the day/week
For Indian bettors, 5,000 to 50,000 INR is a typical starting bankroll. The exact amount matters less than the discipline to manage it properly.
The Mathematics of Variance
Even with an edge, losing streaks are mathematically inevitable. Understanding this prevents panic decisions that destroy bankrolls.
Probability of Hitting a Losing Streak
| Win Rate | 5-Loss Streak per 100 bets | 8-Loss Streak per 350 bets |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | 97% | ~100% |
| 55% | 82% | ~100% |
| 60% | 59% | 18% |
A 55% bettor — which would be excellent — will hit an 8+ bet losing streak once every 350 bets. This is not bad luck. It is mathematics.
Risk of Ruin: Why Stake Size is Everything
At 1% stakes
<1%
Risk of ruin
At 10% stakes
>50%
Risk of ruin
Same edge, same win rate, same skill. The only difference is stake size. This is why professionals bet small.
The Unit System Explained
Professional bettors do not think in rupees — they think in units. One unit equals a fixed percentage of your bankroll, typically 1%.
The Golden Rule
1 Unit = 1% of Bankroll
50,000 INR bankroll → 1 unit = 500 INR
Why use units instead of fixed rupee amounts?
- Scales to any bankroll — whether you have 10,000 or 10 lakh
- Removes emotion — "1 unit" feels consistent regardless of bankroll fluctuations
- Standardises tracking — "+5 units" means the same thing to every bettor
The Billy Walters Approach
Billy Walters won consistently for 39 years with a 57% win rate. His stake recommendation: 1-3% maximum, with size proportional to edge. Most professional bettors rarely exceed 1% on any single event.
Our Tiered Staking System
| Edge | Stake | When to Use |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5% | 0.5 units | Speculative value, marginal edge |
| 5-8% | 1 unit | Solid value, standard bet |
| 8%+ | 1.5 units | Strong conviction, rare opportunities |
| <2% | NO BET | Juice is not worth the squeeze |
Unit Calculator
Calculate your stake sizes based on bankroll
Enter the total amount you've set aside for betting
Staking Strategies Compared
Flat Betting (Recommended)
Bet the same percentage (1% of bankroll) on every wager, regardless of confidence. Simple, removes emotion, and survives variance well. The discipline it enforces outweighs any theoretical gains from variable staking. Best for most bettors.
Percentage Betting
Always bet 1% of your current bankroll. Stakes auto-adjust as you win or lose — protecting you during downswings and accelerating gains during hot streaks. Requires recalculating after every bet. A good alternative to flat betting.
Kelly Criterion (Use With Caution)
A mathematical formula that calculates "optimal" stake based on perceived edge and odds. The problem: Kelly assumes you know your true edge. You do not. Most bettors overestimate, leading to catastrophic overbetting. Betting 2x Kelly has zero expected growth. If you use Kelly, apply quarter-Kelly at most.
Martingale (Never Use)
Double your bet after every loss to "recover" when you eventually win. Why it fails: A 10-bet losing streak requires 1,024x your original stake. Starting with 100 INR bets, you would need 102,400 INR for the 11th bet. This system guarantees eventual ruin.
Cricket-Specific Bankroll Management
Cricket betting has unique characteristics that require format-specific staking rules.
Recommended Stakes by Format
| Format | Variance | Max Stake | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| T20 | Highest | 0.5-1 unit | One Super Over swings everything |
| ODI | Medium | 1 unit | More overs smooth variance |
| Test | Lower | 1-1.5 units | Skill dominates over 5 days |
| Session/Lambi | Variable | 0.5 unit max | High frequency = smaller stakes |
IPL Season Planning
With 74 matches in a single IPL season, set a tournament-specific allocation. Example: 30% of yearly bankroll for IPL. Cap daily exposure at 5 units maximum. Be selective — you do not need an opinion on every match.
Session & Lambi Discipline
Session markets (6-over, 10-over, lambi) move fast and trigger impulsive betting. Allocate maximum 20% of daily units for sessions. Never chase a bad powerplay with a double lambi. Pre-commit your session bets before the innings starts.
See our Session Betting Guide for detailed strategies.
Exchange Betting: Managing Exposure
Exchange betting (khai-lagai) adds complexity because laying bets creates liability exposure. Your potential loss is not just your stake — it is stake × (odds - 1).
Example: Laying 1,000 at odds of 5.0 means your liability is 1,000 × (5.0 - 1) = 4,000 at risk. The higher the odds you lay, the greater your exposure.
Exchange bankroll rules:
- Calculate unit size based on liability, not stake
- Laying at high odds requires smaller stakes to keep liability within 1 unit
- Consider total exposure across all open positions
Use our Khai-Lagai Calculator to calculate lay liability before placing bets.
Common Bankroll Mistakes
- Chasing losses — Doubling up to "get it back" after a loss. This accelerates ruin instead of recovering.
- Overconfidence after wins — Increasing stakes because you are "hot." Hot streaks do not mean your edge improved — they are just variance.
- Betting without tracking — You cannot improve what you do not measure. Track every bet, every result, every lesson.
- Emotional team loyalty — Betting bigger on India vs Pakistan because of emotion. Your bankroll does not know who you support.
- Using rent money — Betting with money you cannot afford to lose. This creates desperation that destroys discipline.
Tracking Your Results
You cannot improve what you do not measure. Every serious bettor tracks their bets.
What to track:
- Date, match, bet type, odds
- Stake (in units), result, profit/loss
- Running bankroll balance
- Notes — why you made the bet, what you learned
ROI Benchmarks
Track for at least 100 bets before drawing conclusions — variance makes smaller samples meaningless. Use our Implied Probability Calculator to identify value before placing bets.
Using Bonuses Strategically
Deposit bonuses can effectively boost your starting bankroll — but only if used wisely.
A typical 100% deposit match doubles your bankroll on day one. Deposit 10,000, get 20,000 to bet with. The catch: wagering requirements.
- Understand rollover: 30x wagering on a 10,000 bonus means you must bet 300,000 before withdrawing
- Maintain discipline: Do not inflate stakes to clear requirements faster
- Count bonus as bankroll: If you have 20,000 (deposit + bonus), your unit is 200
Use our Bonus Calculator to check if a bonus has positive expected value before taking it. See our recommended cricket betting sites for the best deposit bonuses available to Indian bettors.
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is 1 unit in betting?
1 unit equals 1% of your total betting bankroll. If your bankroll is 50,000, then 1 unit = 500. Using units instead of fixed amounts standardises your betting and makes performance tracking independent of bankroll size.
How much should I bet per cricket match?
Professional bettors risk 1-2% of their bankroll per bet. For T20 cricket (highest variance), stick to 0.5-1%. Never exceed 3% on a single wager, even on high-confidence picks.
Should I use Kelly Criterion for cricket betting?
Only if you can accurately estimate your edge — most bettors overestimate. Betting 2x Kelly has zero expected growth. If you use Kelly, apply quarter-Kelly at most. Flat staking at 1-2% is safer for most bettors.
What is risk of ruin in betting?
The probability of losing your entire bankroll before your edge plays out. At 1% stakes with a 55% win rate, risk of ruin is under 1%. At 10% stakes, it jumps to over 50%. This is why professionals stake small.
How do I recover from a betting losing streak?
Never chase losses by increasing stakes. Stick to your unit size — the math will correct over time if you have an edge. A 55% bettor will hit 8+ loss streaks roughly once per 350 bets. This is normal variance.
What is a good starting bankroll for cricket betting in India?
Whatever you can afford to lose completely. For Indian bettors, 5,000 to 50,000 INR is typical. The amount matters less than the discipline to never exceed unit sizes and never top up from other funds.
How should I manage bankroll for IPL betting?
Set a tournament-specific allocation (e.g., 30% of yearly bankroll for IPL). Cap daily exposure at 5 units maximum. Be selective — with 74 matches, you do not need to bet every game.
What is the biggest bankroll mistake bettors make?
Chasing losses — doubling up to recover. A 10-bet losing streak using Martingale requires 1,024x your original stake. The second biggest mistake is betting without tracking results.
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