Who Will Win IPL 2026? Prediction, Betting Odds & Value Bets

Last updated: 6 January 2026

Mumbai Indians lead the betting at 5.7. The public will pile on. We disagree. Our probability model finds better value elsewhere: Kolkata Knight Riders @ 11 (+4.9% edge) and Gujarat Titans @ 9.82 (+4.8% edge). KKR spent ₹43.20 crore on Cameron Green and Matheesha Pathirana to fix their death bowling. GT have the Orange Cap and Purple Cap winners from 2025. RCB defend their maiden title, but back-to-back IPL wins are rare — only CSK and MI have achieved it. The tournament runs March 26 to May 31 across India.

Why Not Mumbai Indians?

Mumbai Indians. Five titles. The most successful IPL franchise. Bumrah. Rohit. SKY. Hardik. The public will back them. The bookmakers know this.

MI are priced at 5.7 (Betfair). That implies 17.5% probability. Our model calculates 18%. The edge is +0.5% — below our 2% threshold. Fair price, no value.

The market has priced MI correctly. Their strength is known. Their weaknesses too: spin bowling is thin (Will Jacks, Santner), and Hardik’s captaincy remains under scrutiny after the 2025 struggles.

If you want MI, wait for odds to drift. At 6.5+, they become interesting.

IPL 2026 Outright Betting Odds: All 10 Teams

Our Probability Model & Value Analysis

Our Recommendations

Team-by-Team Analysis

Kolkata Knight Riders

14% WIN PROB

2024 Champions

Death bowling fixed. Title window open.

Key signings: Cameron Green (₹25.20 Cr), Matheesha Pathirana (₹18 Cr) — death bowling solved

Retained: Sunil Narine, Varun Chakravarthy (mystery spin duo), Rinku Singh, Harshit Rana

Coaching: Abhishek Nayar (head), Tim Southee, Shane Watson, Dwayne Bravo, Andre Russell (Power Coach)

Value: +4.9% edge at odds of 11. Best value bet in the market.

Risk: Cameron Green's injury history. At 11, you're compensated for that uncertainty.

Gujarat Titans

15% WIN PROB

2022 Champions

Orange Cap. Purple Cap. Elite bowling depth.

2025 stars: Sai Sudharsan (Orange Cap, 759 runs), Prasidh Krishna (Purple Cap, 25 wickets)

Bowling arsenal: Kagiso Rabada, Mohammed Siraj, Prasidh Krishna, Rashid Khan — four match-winners

Captain: Shubman Gill — India's Test and ODI captain. Won IPL on franchise debut (2022).

Value: +4.8% edge at odds of 9.82. Second-best value bet.

Risk: Jos Buttler form uncertain. But bowling depth compensates.

Rajasthan Royals

9% WIN PROB

2008 Champions

Jaiswal. Jadeja. Archer. High ceiling.

Star batter: Yashasvi Jaiswal — best young batter in world cricket. Opens. Age 24.

Key arrival: Ravindra Jadeja (c) — bats, bowls, fields. Returns to where his IPL career began in 2008.

X-factor: Jofra Archer — fully fit. Unplayable at the death when healthy.

Value: +2.0% edge at odds of 14.2. Marginal value, small stake.

Risk: Lost Sanju Samson. Archer fitness. Spin bowling thin.

Mumbai Indians

18% WIN PROB

5x Champions

Most successful franchise. Correctly priced.

Core: Jasprit Bumrah, Rohit Sharma, Suryakumar Yadav, Hardik Pandya (c)

Strengths: Best pace bowler in the world (Bumrah). Deep batting. IPL DNA.

Weakness: Spin bowling thin (Will Jacks, Santner). Hardik's captaincy under scrutiny after 2025.

Edge: +0.5% at odds of 5.7. Below our 2% threshold — no bet.

Verdict: Fair price. No value. Wait for odds to drift above 6.5.

Chennai Super Kings

10% WIN PROB

5x Champions

Samson arrives. Jadeja departs. New chapter.

Key arrival: Sanju Samson (₹18 Cr from mega trade) — replaces Dhoni as wicketkeeper-batter

Lost: Ravindra Jadeja (to RR), Sam Curran (to RR) — all-round balance reduced

Captain: Ruturaj Gaikwad. Coach: Stephen Fleming (longest-serving IPL coach).

Edge: +0.9% at odds of 11. Below threshold — no bet.

Verdict: Transition season. Samson is elite but squad depth uncertain.

Lucknow Super Giants

6% WIN PROB

The Rebuild

Pant arrives. Shami returns. Rebuild mode.

Key arrival: Rishabh Pant (c) — explosive keeper-batter, returned from career-threatening injury

Trade acquisition: Mohammed Shami (₹10 Cr from SRH) — India's best seamer when fit

Coach: Justin Langer — disciplined, structured approach.

Edge: -2.5% at odds of 11.8. Overpriced by market.

Risk: Team still gelling. Can Pant lead a franchise? Captaincy unproven.

Punjab Kings

8% WIN PROB

2025 Finalists

Ponting. Shreyas. Finally competitive?

2025: Reached first IPL final. Lost to RCB by 6 runs. Closest they've come.

Captain: Shreyas Iyer — proven IPL leader (KKR 2024 title). Adds tactical nous.

Coach: Ricky Ponting — three-time World Cup winner. Culture change ongoing.

Edge: -1.3% at odds of 10.8. Fair price — no edge either way.

Verdict: Improved but not title-ready. Arshdeep Singh key at the death.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru

12% WIN PROB

Defending Champions

Back-to-back is rare. Market pays champion premium.

2025: First-ever IPL title. 18-year wait ended. Virat Kohli finally lifted the trophy.

History: Only CSK (2010-11) and MI (2019-20) won back-to-back. RCB face the odds.

Core: Virat Kohli, Phil Salt (explosive), Josh Hazlewood, Rajat Patidar (c).

Edge: -2.1% at odds of 7.08. You're paying a champion premium.

Risk: Chinnaswamy pitch is flat. Hard to defend. Wait for 8.5+ odds.

Sunrisers Hyderabad

5% WIN PROB

High Variance

Lost Shami. Hyper-aggressive style is boom or bust.

Lost: Mohammed Shami (traded to LSG for ₹10 Cr). Massive hole in death bowling.

Style: Hyper-aggressive batting. Travis Head, Heinrich Klaasen, Abhishek Sharma. When it clicks: 250+. When it fails: 120.

Captain: Pat Cummins. Coach: Daniel Vettori. Elite leadership duo.

Edge: -4.1% at odds of 11. Heavily overpriced by market.

Risk: Over-reliant on top 3. No backup plan. Variance too high for outright bet.

Delhi Capitals

3% WIN PROB

Never Won

Unproven captain. Inexperienced coach. Zero titles.

Captain: Axar Patel — excellent player, unproven leader at franchise level.

Coach: Hemang Badani — inexperienced at IPL head coach level.

Lost: Jake Fraser-McGurk (unsold at auction). Explosive top-order bat gone.

Edge: -7.0% at odds of 10. The biggest mispricing in IPL 2026.

Risk: Zero IPL titles in 17 seasons. One final (2020). Lost. Avoid.

Key Squad Changes for IPL 2026

The Mega Trade

November 15, 2025: The biggest trade in IPL history.

• Sanju Samson → Chennai Super Kings (₹18 crore)
• Ravindra Jadeja → Rajasthan Royals (₹14 crore)
• Sam Curran → Rajasthan Royals (₹2.4 crore)

Jadeja returns to where he won his first IPL in 2008. Samson replaces Dhoni as CSK’s wicketkeeper-batter.

The Auction Highlights (December 16, 2025)

Andre Russell Retires

November 30, 2025: Andre Russell announced IPL retirement. 140 matches. 2,651 runs at strike rate 174. 123 wickets.

He joins KKR as the first-ever “Power Coach” in IPL history. Quote: “I don’t want to fade out. I want to leave a legacy behind.”

IPL 2026 Captains and Coaches

IPL Title Winning Trends: 18 Seasons of Data

Title Count (2008-2025)

• Mumbai Indians: 5 titles (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020)
• Chennai Super Kings: 5 titles (2010, 2011, 2018, 2021, 2023)
• Kolkata Knight Riders: 3 titles (2012, 2014, 2024)
• Gujarat Titans: 1 title (2022)
• Sunrisers Hyderabad: 1 title (2016)
• Rajasthan Royals: 1 title (2008)
• Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 1 title (2025)
• Never won: Delhi Capitals, Punjab Kings, Lucknow Super Giants

What Winners Have in Common

1. Strong Indian core: MI and CSK built around 4-5 elite Indians
2. Death bowling: Every champion has 2+ reliable death bowlers
3. Experienced captains: Dhoni (5 titles), Rohit (5 titles) — proven leaders dominate
4. Home advantage: Teams winning 70%+ home games have 78% playoff chance

Back-to-Back Is Rare

Only two franchises have won consecutive titles:

• CSK: 2010, 2011
• MI: 2019, 2020

RCB’s title defence faces historical headwinds.

Looking for daily IPL match predictions? Visit our IPL betting tips page for individual match analysis once the tournament begins.

Odds and analysis accurate as of January 6, 2026. Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly.