Who Will Win IPL 2026? Prediction, Betting Odds & Value Bets
Last updated: 18 July 2026 · IPL 2026 is over — Royal Challengers Bengaluru are the champions. They beat Gujarat Titans by 5 wickets in the final at Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad on 31 May (GT 155/8; RCB 161/5, Virat Kohli 75 not out), making it back-to-back titles after their 2025 win.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru are the champions of IPL 2026. They beat Gujarat Titans by 5 wickets in the final at Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad on 31 May: Gujarat made 155/8, and RCB chased it down at 161/5 in 18 overs, Virat Kohli unbeaten on 75 off 42. It is RCB’s second title in a row, following their maiden crown in 2025, and only the third back-to-back in IPL history after CSK (2010-11) and MI (2019-20). RCB topped the league at 9-5 (18pts, NRR +0.783) and came through the playoffs to retain the trophy. Below is the full season review: our pre-tournament outright read, how the market moved across the campaign, and the team-by-team analysis that tracked all ten sides from March to May.
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🏆 May 31 — IPL 2026 Final: Royal Challengers Bengaluru are champions
🏆 RCB beat Gujarat Titans by 5 wickets in the final at Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad. Gujarat posted 155/8 (Washington Sundar 50 not out); RCB chased it down at 161/5 in 18 overs, Virat Kohli unbeaten on 75 off 42.
🏆 Back-to-back champions: RCB retain the title they first won in 2025, becoming only the third franchise to win consecutive IPLs after CSK (2010-11) and MI (2019-20).
📊 Outright review: RCB won as the season's form favourite. Our pre-tournament long-shot value picks (KKR @ 12, GT @ 9, RR @ 15) did not convert — KKR finished 7th, RR went out in the Eliminator, GT lost the final. The market moves on to IPL 2027 futures.
📁 Season review — analysis preserved as it stood
IPL 2026 is over: Royal Challengers Bengaluru won the title, beating Gujarat Titans by 5 wickets in the final on 31 May. The detailed analysis below — the season timeline, outright odds tables, our probability model and the team-by-team breakdowns — is preserved from during the season (last updated late April, after ~38 matches) as a record of how we read it and how the market moved. All IPL 2026 outright markets are now settled. Nothing below is live betting advice; the odds, records and value reads refer to prices that no longer trade.
📁 Season snapshot — 25 April, ~35 matches (archived)
🏆 PBKS chase DC to go 6-0-1 (Apr 25): Six-wicket win at Arun Jaitley with seven balls to spare. Punjab extended the only unbeaten record in the league at that stage — their outright had shortened to 3.00-3.25.
🏆 SRH chase 200 at Jaipur to beat RR by 5 wickets (Apr 25): Cummins back from Cricket Australia suspension, finishes the chase with nine balls to spare. SRH to 5-3 and third on points (NRR +0.815). RR drop to 5-3 fourth on NRR.
🏆 GT thrash CSK by 8 wickets (Apr 26): Twenty balls to spare. GT to 4-4 and back into the playoff conversation. CSK drop to 3-5.
🏆 KKR finally win via Super Over vs LSG (Apr 26): Tied chase at Eden Gardens, KKR take the Super Over. Their second win of the season — KKR 2-5-1, LSG drop to 2-6 and bottom on NRR.
🏆 RCB chase 206 to beat GT by 5 wickets (Apr 24): Virat Kohli 81 off 44 anchors the chase at Chinnaswamy. RCB to 5-2 and joint second on points (NRR +1.101). Title odds shortened from 4.50 to 4.00.
🏆 CSK demolish MI by 103 runs (Apr 23): CSK 207/6 set, MI bowled out for 104. CSK's third win of the tournament takes them to 3-4. MI now 2-5 and in real trouble. Samson steady again.
🏆 PBKS chase 195 with 7 wickets in hand (Apr 16): Five wins in five decided games. Shreyas Iyer continues to anchor with Arya, Priyansh at the top. Pre-tournament 9.50 has shortened to 3.25 outright.
🏆 SRH surge with three in a week (Apr 13-21): 57-run win over RR, 10-run win over CSK, 47-run win over DC. Ishan Kishan and Abhishek Sharma firing. Pat Cummins now available from 25 April vs RR.
📊 Standings (38 of 74): PBKS 13pts (6-0-1, top, NRR +1.333). RCB 10pts (5-2, NRR +1.101). SRH 10pts (5-3, NRR +0.815). RR 10pts (5-3, NRR +0.602). GT 8pts (4-4, NRR -0.475). CSK 6pts (3-5). DC 6pts (3-4). KKR 5pts (2-5-1). MI 4pts (2-5). LSG 4pts (2-6, bottom on NRR -1.106).
📊 Key narrative (late April): PBKS were the only undefeated side at 6-0-1, outright around 3.00-3.25. The SRH-Cummins value read closed on 25 April when SRH chased 200 at Jaipur to move third. RCB had shortened to 4.00. KKR's first wins came late, and a 2-5-1 record left an extremely narrow playoff path.
📁 Apr 11: PBKS chase 220 to beat SRH by 6 wkts (Shreyas Iyer 69*). CSK first win — Samson 115* off 56 vs DC. PBKS 3-0-1 unbeaten. CSK off the mark at 1-3.
📁 Apr 10: LSG beat KKR by 3 wkts on last ball (KKR 181/4, LSG 182/7). GT beat DC by 1 run (Gill 70, Rashid 3/17). KKR still winless at 0-3. RR 3-0 at top.
📁 Apr 6-7: KKR vs PBKS abandoned (rain, Eden Gardens) — 1pt each. Pathirana bowling in nets, SLC clearance pending, mid-Apr return. PBKS went top with 5pts.
📁 Matches 8-11 (Apr 4-5): DC beat MI by 6 wkts (Rizvi 90). RR beat GT by 6 runs (Jurel 75, Jaiswal 55). LSG beat SRH by 5 wkts (Pant 68, Shami 2/9). RCB 250/3 smash CSK by 43 runs — highest total of IPL 2026. CSK 0-3.
📁 Matches 6-7 (Apr 2-3): SRH crushed KKR by 65 runs (Match 6). PBKS chased 210 to beat CSK by 5 wkts (Match 7, Iyer 50).
📁 Matches 3-5: RR demolished CSK 127ao (Sooryavanshi 52 off 17). PBKS edged GT (Connolly 72* on debut). DC beat LSG from 26/4 (Rizvi 70*).
📁 March 30 update: MI chased 221 vs KKR (Rickelton 81, Rohit 78). RCB chased 202 vs SRH (Kohli 69*, Padikkal 61). KKR bowling concerns — Arora went for 52 in 4 overs.
🚨 March 27 Update — Eve of Tournament Injuries
🏥 RR lose Sam Curran (groin — entire season): Dasun Shanaka signed as replacement (₹2 Cr). RR's all-round depth takes a hit. Shanaka left PSL's Lahore Qalandars to join.
🏥 CSK lose Nathan Ellis (hamstring — entire season): Spencer Johnson signed as replacement (₹1.5 Cr) but won't arrive until April 21-23 due to back injury recovery. CSK without both pace replacements for early matches.
🏥 KKR crisis deepens: Akash Deep ruled out entirely (lower-back stress fracture, 3+ months). Saurabh Dubey signed at ₹30 lakh. Harshit Rana still out (knee surgery). Only Green and recovering Pathirana (mid-April) remain as quality pace options. Muzarabani signed from PSL at ₹75 lakh (base price, replacing Mustafizur who was released at ₹9.2 Cr) — the silver lining.
🏥 SRH lose Jack Edwards (foot — entire season): David Payne signed as replacement.
⚠️ DC's Starc delayed: Mitchell Starc awaiting Cricket Australia NOC — will miss opener vs LSG (April 1). Expected to join shortly after.
⚠️ PBKS without Ferguson: Lockie Ferguson misses first 7 matches (paternity leave, child's birth). Arshdeep Singh carries early pace burden alone.
📊 Odds update: MI now clear favorites at 4.20-4.80 (Dafabet/Sportsbet). KKR drift to 12.00. GT hold at 7.00-9.00. CSK shortened to 7.50-9.50.
📁 Earlier updates (Mar 19 & before): SRH captaincy confirmed (Kishan interim), start date delayed to Mar 28 (elections), KKR pace crisis (Rana out, Pathirana calf, Mustafizur released — Muzarabani signed), GT's Sudharsan recovered, RCB's Salt fit. Full pre-tournament injury tracker in team cards below.
Punjab Kings At 3.25: What Our Model Said, And How It Played Out
Punjab Kings. Zero league losses through six games. One abandonment. A title-odds collapse from 9.50 to 3.25 in four weeks. By late April the market had decided they were the team of the season. Here is the value read we published at the time — and, with hindsight, how it resolved: PBKS faded, finished 5th, and missed the playoffs.
Start with the numbers as they stood. PBKS were 6-0-1, which gave them 13 points — three clear of every team behind them, and the only side yet to lose a league match. Net run rate was +1.333. Shreyas Iyer had anchored almost every run-chase and opener Priyansh Arya looked like the signing of the season. The bowling was tight rather than devastating — Arshdeep Singh carrying the new ball, the spin duo of Harpreet Brar and Yuzvendra Chahal squeezing the middle overs. It was a balanced side, not a star-heavy one.
But at 3.25, PBKS needed a 30.8% implied chance of lifting the trophy. Our model had them at 23%. The gap was -7.6% — shorter than our fair line by a meaningful margin. The honest reason: an IPL season is 14 league games plus playoffs, and going 6-0 is the kind of run every favourite eventually breaks. At that stage PBKS still had eight league fixtures left, including RCB at Chinnaswamy and MI at Wankhede — and, as it turned out, the run did break.
The equivalent sides in recent IPL seasons — the teams that were undefeated for six-plus games early — include 2023 GT, 2024 KKR and 2022 GT again. All three went on to finish top two in the league but only one actually won the title. The pattern that repeats is that the first five to six games compress the top of the table toward the market’s pre-tournament favourite, and the market then overshoots in the other direction.
Our read at the time: the 9.50 pre-tournament price had been value, but 3.25 no longer was — our fair line sat at 4.35 (23%). That call aged well. Punjab did lose, drifted off the top, and ultimately finished 5th, outside the playoffs — the short favourite price never paid.
IPL 2026 Outright Betting Odds: All 10 Teams
Historical snapshot — outright title odds as they stood on 27 April 2026, aggregated across major bookmakers after 38 matches. At that point PBKS held the favourite tag at 3.00-3.25, RCB were second at 4.00, and SRH had shortened to 7.00-9.00. These markets are now settled: RCB won IPL 2026. Preserved as a record of how the market moved.
| Team | Record | Best Odds | Implied Prob | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajasthan Royals | 5-2 | 5.50 | 18.2% | ↓ was 4.40 (two losses) |
| Mumbai Indians | 2-5 | 7.50 | 13.3% | ↓ was 4.20 (2-5 slide) |
| Punjab Kings | 6-0-1 | 3.25 | 30.8% | ↑↑ was 9.50 (unbeaten) |
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru | 5-2 | 4.00 | 25.0% | ↑↑ was 6.50 (Kohli 81 sinks GT, NRR +1.10) |
| Lucknow Super Giants | 2-5 | 81.00 | 1.2% | ↓↓ was 15.00 (NRR -1.28) |
| Delhi Capitals | 3-3 | 14.00 | 7.1% | → was 17.00 (steady mid-table) |
| Gujarat Titans | 3-4 | 18.00 | 5.6% | ↓↓ was 9.00 (lost to RCB Apr 24, NRR -0.79) |
| Chennai Super Kings | 3-4 | 30.00 | 3.3% | ↑ recent form (103-run win over MI) |
| Sunrisers Hyderabad | 4-3 | 12.00 | 8.3% | ↑ recent form (Cummins back 25 Apr) |
| Kolkata Knight Riders | 2-5-1 | 150.00 | 0.7% | ↓↓↓ was 12.00 (narrow playoff path) |
Odds as they stood on 27 April 2026 (after 38 matches), preserved as a historical record. At that stage Punjab Kings had shortened from 9.50 to 3.00-3.25 as the only undefeated side; RCB were joint second at 4.00; SRH had come from 10.00-15.00 to 7.00-9.00. All IPL 2026 outright markets are now settled — RCB won the title.
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Our Probability Model & Value Analysis
We built a probability model using 18 years of IPL data, squad strength analysis, auction moves, and form through 25 April 2026. This table is the snapshot as it stood then: with RCB shortening to 4.00 after the GT win, only SRH at 12.00 still cleared our 2% edge threshold. The markets have since settled — RCB won IPL 2026.
| Team | Our Prob | Fair Odds | Best Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punjab Kings | 23% | 4.35 | 3.25 | -7.6% |
| Rajasthan Royals | 16% | 6.25 | 5.50 | -12.0% |
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru | 22% | 4.55 | 4.00 | -12.0% |
| Sunrisers Hyderabad | 11% | 9.09 | 12.00 | +2.9% |
| Mumbai Indians | 11% | 9.09 | 7.50 | -2.3% |
| Gujarat Titans | 5% | 20.00 | 18.00 | -10.0% |
| Delhi Capitals | 5% | 20.00 | 14.00 | -2.1% |
| Chennai Super Kings | 4% | 25.00 | 30.00 | +0.7% |
| Lucknow Super Giants | 2% | 50.00 | 81.00 | +0.8% |
| Kolkata Knight Riders | 1% | 100.00 | 150.00 | +0.3% |
Our In-Season Recommendations — Settled
In-Season Call — Settled
Sunrisers Hyderabad @ 12.00 — did not land
+2.9%
Edge
—
Settled
At the time this was our top in-season value call: three wins in a week, and Pat Cummins cleared to rejoin from 25 April — adding Test-grade fast bowling to a unit already firing with the bat (Abhishek Sharma 89 off 36 against DC). At 12.00 the market still priced the pre-Cummins version. Outcome: SRH did not win the title (RCB did), so the outright call did not land.
Closed — Rec Achieved
Royal Challengers Bengaluru @ 4.50
CLV+
Result
0.5u
Stake
Filled at 4.50 in the 24 April note. RCB then beat GT by 5 wickets at Chinnaswamy with Kohli 81 off 44, and the market shortened to 4.00 overnight — exactly the move we forecast. This in-season call closed with positive closing line value, and RCB went on to win the title, so it settled as our best outright read of the season.
Retired Pre-Tournament Picks
KKR @ 12 · GT @ 9 · RR @ 15
RR was caught by the market after the 4-0 start (now 7.00-9.00 at 5-3, no edge remaining). KKR sit at 81.00-150.00 with 2-5-1 — the second win came via a 26 April Super Over against LSG. GT recovered some ground at 4-4 and 12.00-15.00 after thrashing CSK. Three pre-tournament value calls, one converted by the market before it could be bet, two failed to perform. Retired with partial credit on the RR call.
Avoid
Mumbai Indians @ 7.50
-2.3%
Edge
—
Stake
2-5 from seven games, including a 103-run loss to CSK on 23 April. The champion-pedigree premium is still baked into the 7.50 line but the team is not reading that way on the park. Spin thin, Bumrah carrying the attack, Rohit in-and-out. Interesting above 9.0.
Staking: 1 unit = 1% of your betting bankroll. We recommend 1u for edges 2-5%, and 0.5u for edges at the threshold.
Team-by-Team Analysis
Kolkata Knight Riders
1% WIN PROB2024 Champions
2-5-1 with a Super Over win on 26 April keeping the side just barely in the conversation.
Current record: 2-5-1 from eight games, 5 points. Net run rate -0.751. First win came in the Apr 19 chase of RR (Rinku 53*, Varun 3/14). Second came via Super Over against LSG on 26 April after a tied chase. With six matches left, the playoff path still requires running the table AND favourable other-team results — a low-single-digit-percent scenario on our model.
Why it went wrong: exactly the death-bowling hole we warned about. Harshit Rana out (knee, entire season). Akash Deep out (lower-back, entire season). Pathirana's mid-April return did not materialise into form. Muzarabani has been a workhorse but is one bowler covering two missing bodies. Teams are chasing 190+ totals routinely.
What worked: Raghuvanshi looks like a genuine find. Rahane steady. Varun Chakravarthy and Narine still generating overs of control in the middle.
Retained core: Sunil Narine, Varun Chakravarthy (mystery spin), Rinku Singh, Ajinkya Rahane (c)
Coaching depth: Abhishek Nayar (head), Tim Southee, Shane Watson, Dwayne Bravo, Andre Russell (Power Coach)
Value reassessment: our pre-tournament KKR @ 12 pick did not land — KKR finished 7th. By late April, at 150.00, the market's read had converged on our 1% — a technical +0.3% edge, but never worth the variance.
Risk: not about losing the title — it is about losing the season. With the playoff maths this unforgiving, expect rotation, youth and experiments for the rest of the campaign. Not a betting proposition.
Gujarat Titans
5% WIN PROB2022 Champions
3-4 after losing to RCB at Chinnaswamy. The bowling has been as advertised. The batting has not.
Current record: 3-4 from seven, 6 points, NRR -0.79. Latest: posted 205/3 at Chinnaswamy on 24 April but Kohli 81 off 44 saw RCB chase down with five wickets to spare. Apr 12 smashed LSG by 7 wickets (Gill 56, Buttler 60). Apr 17 edged KKR by 5 wickets. Apr 20 lost to MI by 99 runs — bowled out for 100, the collapse that killed the momentum.
Bowling has been the strength: Prasidh Krishna 4/28 in the LSG match was the signature spell. Rashid Khan, Rabada and Siraj all doing their jobs. Purple-Cap-holder Prasidh leads the wicket charts at this stage again.
Batting has been the problem: Sudharsan has not replicated his 2025 Orange Cap form at the same rate. Gill has 50+ scores but not the 70+ anchoring innings GT need. The 100-all-out collapse vs MI on Apr 20 was the lowest GT total in recent IPL memory.
Bowling arsenal: Kagiso Rabada, Mohammed Siraj, Prasidh Krishna, Rashid Khan — four match-winners, all fit.
Captain: Shubman Gill — India's Test and ODI captain. Won IPL on franchise debut (2022).
Value reassessment: our pre-tournament GT @ 9 pick was the closest of the three to landing. In late April, after three losses in four, our in-season model had drifted GT to 5% and the 18.00 price offered no edge — but GT recovered, climbed back into the playoffs, and went all the way to the final before losing to RCB.
Risk: GT face CSK on 26 April — Dhoni's rumoured return night, and a test of whether the bowling can get back on top of a strong middle order. If Gill fires, GT can climb back to playoff contention. If not, the captaincy comes under pressure.
Rajasthan Royals
16% WIN PROB2008 Champions
4-0 start, then SRH and KKR. Parag's captaincy looks the real deal — until it doesn't.
Current record: 5-2 from seven, 10 points. Opened 4-0 (including demolition of CSK for 127). Then lost at Hyderabad on Apr 13 (chasing 216) and at Eden on Apr 19 (defending 155 against KKR). Bounced back with a 40-run win over LSG on Apr 22.
Captain Parag: quiet confidence, smart field settings, rotates bowlers intelligently. At 23 years old he has settled into the role faster than anyone expected. Our pre-tournament concern about his captaincy has been answered.
Star batter: Yashasvi Jaiswal has scored at strike rate 150-plus, Jurel steady at number three. Vaibhav Sooryavanshi has added fireworks — his 78 off 26 is still the most-watched innings of the tournament.
Jadeja, Archer firing: Jadeja anchors the middle and bowls into the breeze. Archer has touched 145 kph and the yorker is back. Together they are the most valuable all-round duo in the competition.
Value reassessment: pre-tournament RR @ 15 was caught by the market. At 5.50 the edge had gone to -1.2% — the value call was real but the market priced it in after the 4-0 start. RR went on to finish 4th and lost the Eliminator.
Risk: the two defeats exposed a soft middle order when Jaiswal falls early. Shanaka cannot replicate Curran's death-bowling overs. If Archer gets injured, the bowling ceiling drops fast.
Mumbai Indians
11% WIN PROB5x Champions
2-5 and sliding. The opener vs KKR feels like a long time ago.
Current record: 2-5 from seven, 4 points. The one bright spot since the opener was a 99-run demolition of GT on Apr 20. The dark spot is the 103-run loss to CSK on Apr 23 — bowled out for 104 chasing 207. NRR sits at -0.736 and dropping.
What is going wrong: Bumrah is carrying the bowling attack by himself. Rohit has been in-and-out, Suryakumar has struggled to find rhythm, Rickelton's dream opener has not had a follow-up in the same register. Hardik's captaincy is being questioned in the Mumbai press.
Core: Jasprit Bumrah, Rohit Sharma, Suryakumar Yadav, Hardik Pandya (c)
Structural issue: spin bowling is still thin (Will Jacks, Santner). When Bumrah goes wicketless — as he did twice in the last ten days — MI have no plan B.
Value: -2.3% edge at odds of 7.50. The champion premium is still baked in. No bet.
Verdict: the five-title pedigree keeps the price artificially short. Their next three fixtures include a rematch with SRH, and a trip to Eden against KKR. If they drop two of those, the market will finally let the odds drift above 9.0 — that is the bet waiting to happen.
Chennai Super Kings
4% WIN PROB5x Champions
3-4 but climbing. Samson is justifying the trade. Dhoni's return remains unconfirmed.
Current record: 3-4 from seven, 6 points. NRR +0.118. Opened 0-3, then picked up three wins in the last two weeks including a 32-run result against KKR on Apr 14 and the 103-run demolition of MI on Apr 23 (207/6 defended, MI 104 all out).
Samson delivering: maiden CSK century (115* off 56 vs DC on Apr 11) is now one of five 50-plus scores in yellow. The trade for Jadeja and Curran is holding up at the top of the order.
Dhoni status: MS Dhoni has not played a match yet in IPL 2026 — a calf strain sustained in pre-season has kept him out. He has been training and was reportedly close to fitness for the 23 April MI fixture but did not play. CSK's next match is 26 April vs GT and his return is widely speculated for that fixture, though CSK have not officially confirmed him match-fit. R Ashwin has publicly suggested Dhoni may play only two more matches this season.
Lost to RR: Ravindra Jadeja and Sam Curran — the all-round balance from 2024 is gone, replaced by depth rather than stars.
Captain: Ruturaj Gaikwad. Coach: Stephen Fleming (longest-serving IPL coach).
Value: +0.7% edge at odds of 30.00. Technically marginal value, but with seven matches left and a playoff deficit to close, it is a lottery ticket rather than a value call. No stake.
Verdict: the season has turned from disaster to live story in ten days. CSK are not going to win the title at 4% odds, but they are no longer the meme-pick of the tournament.
Lucknow Super Giants
2% WIN PROBThe Rebuild
2-5 and playoff-dead. NRR -1.28 is the league's second-worst.
Current record: 2-5 from seven, 4 points. Lost the Apr 15 fixture against RCB by 5 wickets, the Apr 19 chase of PBKS at 254 by 54 runs, and the Apr 22 contest against RR by 40 runs. Only two wins — both against other sides in the bottom half.
Pant captaincy: the post-injury return has been steady with the bat but the captaincy has looked cautious rather than disciplined. Langer's structural approach has not translated into results.
Shami has been fit but ineffective: the ₹10 Cr trade from SRH has not returned dividends yet. Mix of rust and LSG fielders failing to hold regulation catches behind him.
Key arrival: Rishabh Pant (c) — explosive keeper-batter, returned from career-threatening injury.
Coach: Justin Langer — disciplined, structured approach.
Value: +0.8% marginal edge at odds of 81.00. Our model has them at 2%, market at 1.2%. Variance is too high at these prices for any actionable stake.
Risk: playoff maths is essentially closed. LSG need six wins from their remaining seven and other results to go their way. The rest of the season is about building the core for 2027.
Punjab Kings
23% WIN PROB2025 Finalists
6-0-1 at the season's midpoint — the only undefeated side at that stage, before they faded to 5th and missed the playoffs.
Current record: 6-0-1 from seven, 13 points, NRR +1.333. Only unbeaten side in the competition. Outright odds have collapsed from 9.50 pre-tournament to 3.00-3.25.
Signing of the season: opener Priyansh Arya has been the league's most consistent top-order bat. Paired with Shreyas Iyer anchoring — Iyer has led or co-led almost every PBKS chase including the 7-wicket finish against MI on Apr 16.
Bowling balance: Arshdeep Singh carrying the new ball, Harpreet Brar and Yuzvendra Chahal squeezing the middle overs. The Apr 19 defence of 254 against LSG showed they can post big and still bowl teams out.
Captain: Shreyas Iyer — proven IPL leader (KKR 2024 title). Adds tactical nous.
Coach: Ricky Ponting — three-time World Cup winner. Culture change complete.
Value reassessment: at 3.25 the edge was -7.6% — the market had shortened them past our fair line of 4.35. The 9.50 pre-tournament price had been value; 3.25 was not. That read held up: PBKS duly faded, finished 5th, and missed the playoffs.
Verdict: the unbeaten run is the real deal but the title is not decided in April. The maths says PBKS are the rightful favourite but short-priced by roughly one point. See the main "Is PBKS at 3.25 Real Value" section above for the full breakdown.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
22% WIN PROBDefending Champions
5-2 and joint second on points after Kohli 81 sinks GT. The title defence is on.
Current record: 5-2 from seven, 10 points, NRR +1.10. Latest: beat GT by 5 wickets at Chinnaswamy on 24 April, chasing 206 with Kohli 81 off 44 doing the heavy lifting. Beat LSG by 5 wickets on Apr 15. Lost to DC by 6 wickets on Apr 18 — the one genuinely off night.
Kohli and Salt firing: the opener partnership is scoring at strike rate 160+ almost every innings. Padikkal anchoring the middle, Patidar captaining with the calm that won the 2025 title.
Hazlewood back: returned mid-April from the foot injury that kept him out of the opener and is straight back to the same length and heavy-ball stock delivery that won him the 2025 Purple Cap.
History argument: only CSK (2010-11) and MI (2019-20) have won back-to-back IPL titles. RCB face that wall but unlike earlier title defences, the squad is mostly intact and the core (Kohli, Patidar, Hazlewood) is fit.
Value reassessment: our 24 April rec at 4.50 closed well — the market shortened to 4.00 overnight after the GT win, exactly the closing-line move we forecast. Our updated in-season model had RCB at 22%, fair 4.55. RCB went on to win the title — the season's form favourite converting.
Risk: the defending-champion hangover is a real historical pattern. Chinnaswamy is still a flat deck and bowling-first away from home has cost them two finals in the past decade. If Hazlewood goes down again, the ceiling drops.
Sunrisers Hyderabad
11% WIN PROBRecent Value
Three wins in a week and Pat Cummins cleared from 25 April — our in-season value pick, though it did not land.
Current record: 4-3 from seven, 8 points, NRR +0.82. The turnaround: 57-run win over RR on Apr 13, 10-run win over CSK on Apr 18, 47-run demolition of DC on Apr 21 (242/2 posted, Abhishek Sharma 89 off 36).
Cummins returns 25 April: Pat Cummins was cleared by Cricket Australia after his lumbar stress injury, arrived in India on 17 April, and is available from 25 April vs RR at Jaipur. This is the biggest single squad lift of the back half of the tournament. Adds 8 overs of Test-grade fast bowling to a unit that was already batting above expectation.
Batting ceiling: Travis Head, Heinrich Klaasen, Abhishek Sharma, Ishan Kishan. When the top order gets in, SRH go past 240 — they did it twice in the last ten days. Kishan has handled the interim captaincy well and hands it back to Cummins now.
Lost: Mohammed Shami (traded to LSG). Cummins returning partially offsets the Shami exit at the top of the bowling card.
Coach: Daniel Vettori.
Value: our model has SRH at 11%, fair odds 9.09. Market 12.00. Edge +2.9% — the number one value play detailed in the recommendations above. The market is still pricing the pre-Cummins version.
Risk: boom-or-bust batting is real. When Head falls cheap the innings can collapse, and the bowling behind Cummins is mixed. The variance that makes the value attractive also caps the stake at 1 unit.
Delhi Capitals
5% WIN PROBNever Won
3-3 mid-table. Axar captaincy competent, not elite. Starc delivering.
Current record: 3-3 from six, 6 points, NRR -0.13. Beat RCB on Apr 18 chasing 175 by 6 wickets. Lost a 47-run decision to SRH on Apr 21 (chasing 242). Sits mid-table with a real playoff path but no real momentum.
Axar captaincy: the pre-tournament concern was inexperience. The record says competent — he has led DC to four wins and two close losses, which is what the squad depth should produce. Not elite, not a liability.
Starc impact: Mitchell Starc joined after the NOC delay and has been DC's most reliable bowler. Two three-wicket hauls in his first four matches.
Coach: Hemang Badani — learning on the job but squad is self-directed.
Lost: Jake Fraser-McGurk (unsold at auction) — the one real gap at the top of the order.
Value: -2.1% edge at odds of 14.00. Our model at 5% vs market 7.1%. The market has always loved DC at the midpoint — no bet.
Risk: DC have a habit of dropping three in a row around mid-season. If that happens this month they fall out of the playoff race. But nothing in the current form suggests collapse.
Risk: Zero IPL titles in 17 seasons. One final (2020). Lost. Avoid.
Key Squad Changes for IPL 2026
The Mega Trade
November 14, 2025: The biggest trade in IPL history.
- Sanju Samson → Chennai Super Kings (₹18 crore)
- Ravindra Jadeja → Rajasthan Royals (₹14 crore)
- Sam Curran → Rajasthan Royals (₹2.4 crore)
Jadeja returns to where he won his first IPL in 2008. Samson replaces Dhoni as CSK’s wicketkeeper-batter.
The Auction Highlights (December 16, 2025)
| Player | Team | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Green | KKR | ₹25.20 Cr | Most expensive overseas ever |
| Matheesha Pathirana | KKR | ₹18 Cr | Most expensive Sri Lankan ever |
| Prashant Veer | CSK | ₹14.20 Cr | Joint most expensive uncapped |
| Kartik Sharma | CSK | ₹14.20 Cr | Joint most expensive uncapped |
| Auqib Nabi Dar | DC | ₹8.40 Cr | Most expensive Indian bowler at mini auction |
Andre Russell Retires
November 30, 2025: Andre Russell announced IPL retirement. 140 matches. 2,651 runs at strike rate 174. 123 wickets.
He joins KKR as the first-ever “Power Coach” in IPL history. Quote: “I don’t want to fade out. I want to leave a legacy behind.”
IPL 2026 Captains and Coaches
| Team | Captain | Coach |
|---|---|---|
| Mumbai Indians | Hardik Pandya | Mahela Jayawardene |
| Chennai Super Kings | Ruturaj Gaikwad | Stephen Fleming |
| Kolkata Knight Riders | Ajinkya Rahane | Abhishek Nayar |
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru | Rajat Patidar | Andy Flower |
| Gujarat Titans | Shubman Gill | Ashish Nehra |
| Rajasthan Royals | Riyan Parag | Kumar Sangakkara |
| Lucknow Super Giants | Rishabh Pant | Justin Langer |
| Punjab Kings | Shreyas Iyer | Ricky Ponting |
| Sunrisers Hyderabad | Ishan Kishan (interim; Cummins injured) | Daniel Vettori |
| Delhi Capitals | Axar Patel | Hemang Badani |
IPL Title Winning Trends: 18 Seasons of Data
Title Count (2008-2025)
The complete IPL history on Wisden shows a clear dominance pattern:
- Mumbai Indians: 5 titles (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020)
- Chennai Super Kings: 5 titles (2010, 2011, 2018, 2021, 2023)
- Kolkata Knight Riders: 3 titles (2012, 2014, 2024)
- Gujarat Titans: 1 title (2022)
- Sunrisers Hyderabad: 1 title (2016)
- Rajasthan Royals: 1 title (2008)
- Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 1 title (2025)
- Never won: Delhi Capitals, Punjab Kings, Lucknow Super Giants
What Winners Have in Common
- Strong Indian core: MI and CSK built around 4-5 elite Indians
- Death bowling: Every champion has 2+ reliable death bowlers
- Experienced captains: Dhoni (5 titles), Rohit (5 titles). Proven leaders dominate
- Home advantage: Teams winning 70%+ home games have 78% playoff chance
Back-to-Back Is Rare — And RCB Just Did It
Before 2026, only two franchises had won consecutive titles:
- CSK: 2010, 2011
- MI: 2019, 2020
RCB have now joined them, retaining their 2025 crown in 2026 — the third franchise to go back-to-back.
IPL 2026 Predictions FAQ
Who won IPL 2026?
Royal Challengers Bengaluru won IPL 2026, beating Gujarat Titans by 5 wickets in the final at Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad on 31 May. Chasing 156, RCB reached 161/5 in 18 overs with Virat Kohli unbeaten on 75 off 42; Gujarat had posted 155/8, Washington Sundar 50 not out. It was RCB's second IPL title and a successful defence — back-to-back after their maiden 2025 crown, making them only the third franchise to retain the trophy.
How did the IPL 2026 outright bets settle?
IPL 2026 is settled: Royal Challengers Bengaluru won the title as the in-season favourite. Our pre-tournament outright value picks did not land — KKR @ 12 finished 7th, RR @ 15 went out in the Eliminator, and GT @ 9 reached the final but lost it. That is the nature of long-shot futures: they rarely convert, and the season's form favourite completed the job. The live value now moves to IPL 2027 futures and to match-by-match markets.
Who won IPL 2025?
Royal Challengers Bengaluru won their first-ever IPL title in 2025, beating Punjab Kings by 6 runs in the final at Ahmedabad. It ended an 18-year wait for Virat Kohli and the franchise.
What were the biggest trades for IPL 2026?
The blockbuster trade was Sanju Samson to CSK from Rajasthan Royals in exchange for Ravindra Jadeja and Sam Curran. Samson has justified the move with a maiden CSK century (115* off 56 vs DC on April 11) and CSK have now climbed to 3-4 after a 103-run demolition of Mumbai Indians on 23 April. Other moves: Mohammed Shami to LSG (from SRH), Shardul Thakur to MI.
Who was the most expensive player at IPL 2026 auction?
Cameron Green was bought by KKR for ₹25.20 crore, making him the most expensive overseas player in IPL history. Due to the new salary cap, he receives ₹18 crore (the remaining ₹7.20 crore goes to player welfare).
When does IPL 2026 start?
IPL 2026 started on March 28 and finished with the final on 31 May 2026 at Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad. The tournament featured 74 matches (70 league + 4 playoffs). Royal Challengers Bengaluru won it, beating Gujarat Titans by 5 wickets in the final to retain the title they first won in 2025.
Which teams should I avoid betting on for IPL 2026?
IPL 2026 is over, so there are no live outright markets left. For the record, the sides that drifted out of contention during the season were KKR (finished 7th), LSG (bottom of the table on net run rate) and DC (mid-table). The discipline that held up: avoid long-shot outright prices on teams without a settled top order and genuine death-bowling depth.
Has any team won back-to-back IPL titles?
Royal Challengers Bengaluru have now done it. Before 2026, only CSK (2010-11) and MI (2019-20) had won back-to-back IPL titles. RCB joined that list by winning IPL 2026 — beating Gujarat Titans by 5 wickets in the final at Ahmedabad on 31 May — to follow up their maiden 2025 crown. It is the third back-to-back in IPL history.
Final Verdict — Settled
Royal Challengers Bengaluru won IPL 2026
RCB beat Gujarat Titans by 5 wickets in the final at Ahmedabad on 31 May, retaining the title they first won in 2025 — only the third franchise to go back-to-back after CSK and MI. The season's form favourite converted; the long-shot outright value did not.
RCB
Champions
GT
Runners-up
Kohli 75*
Final, unbeaten
How our pre-tournament calls settled
- ● KKR @ 12: did not convert — finished 7th. The death-bowling fix never fully landed.
- ● GT @ 9: the closest of the three — reached the final, but lost to RCB.
- ● RR @ 15: made the playoffs, out in the Eliminator (finished 4th).
- ● The lesson: long-shot outright value rarely converts; the settled top order and death-bowling depth RCB carried is what actually wins IPLs.
- ● Tournament: March 28 – May 31, 2026 | 74 matches | 10 teams
IPL 2026 outright markets are settled — there is no live position here. For the next season's futures and daily match predictions, see our IPL hub.
Looking for daily IPL match predictions? Visit our IPL prediction hub for individual match analysis, the full IPL schedule for all 70 fixtures, the live points table for standings, or our AI Player Impact Index to see which players actually shift match outcomes.
More Winner Predictions
Odds updated April 6, 2026 after 11 completed matches. Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly.