ICC T20 World Cup 2026
Scotland vs Nepal Match Result & Analysis
SCO Scotland
NEP Nepal
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai, India
Our pre-match prediction 🎯 25/30 T20 WC predictions correct📝 Pre-Match Key Takeaways
- • Scotland predicted to win with 60.5% probability in this Group C dead rubber
- • Both teams are eliminated — West Indies and England have qualified for Super Eights
- • Nepal at 2.64 (Betfair) offers a genuine 4.3% edge over fair odds of 2.53
- • Sandeep Lamichhane took 4/11 against Scotland in their last T20I meeting (June 2025)
- • Wankhede Stadium's short boundaries and batting-friendly surface favour Scotland's explosive top order
Nepal won by 7 wickets (with 4 balls remaining)
We predicted Scotland at 60.5%
Our AI model predicts Scotland to win this Group C encounter with a 60.5% probability, but this is comfortably the closest associate match of the tournament — and arguably the most interesting. Both teams are already eliminated from Super Eight contention, yet the narratives couldn't be more compelling. Scotland want to salvage pride after losses to West Indies and England. Nepal are desperate for their first win of the tournament after three agonising defeats, including coming within four runs of beating England. Under the Wankhede lights, this dead rubber might produce the most entertaining cricket of the day.
Scotland's Campaign: One Brilliant Day, Two Brutal Losses
Scotland's World Cup has been a tale of extremes. Their 73-run demolition of Italy was emphatic — George Munsey smashed 84 to set the tone for what looked like a genuine Super Eight push. But defeats to West Indies (by 35 runs) and England (by 3 wickets chasing 153) exposed the gap between Scotland and the established nations. The ICC T20I rankings show Scotland as a competitive associate side, but consistently bridging that gap against Full Members remains their challenge.
The positive? Scotland's batting has shown genuine firepower. Munsey's 84 against Italy demonstrated his ability to dominate on flat surfaces, and the Wankhede's short boundaries — some of the smallest on the international circuit — play directly to his strengths. Richie Berrington provides the middle-order anchor, while Tom Bruce has contributed useful runs throughout the campaign. If Scotland bat first (the optimal strategy at this venue), 170+ is within their range.
Their bowling, led by the experienced pace of Safyaan Sharif and the canny off-spin of Michael Leask, has been serviceable but not penetrating enough against quality batting lineups. Against Nepal's inconsistent batting, however, this attack should be more than adequate.
Nepal's Heartbreak Tour: Three Losses, But Not Without Hope
Nepal's World Cup record reads 0-3, but the scoreline doesn't tell the full story. Their four-run loss to England was one of the tournament's most dramatic moments — Nepal had England rattled and were within touching distance of the biggest upset in T20 World Cup history. That performance showed this team has skill, courage, and the ability to compete at the highest level. What they've lacked is the composure to close out tight situations.
The Italy loss was more damaging — a 10-wicket defeat that shattered confidence and contributed to Nepal's tournament-worst NRR of -1.942. Coach Nic Pothas has been vocal about wanting "more thought going into how we play our cricket," suggesting tactical discipline has been as much of an issue as skill level. Nepal's batting has been frustratingly inconsistent: capable of explosive moments but prone to collapses.
Captain Rohit Paudel carries the batting burden, while Dipendra Singh Airee provides the middle-order muscle. But the key question is whether Sandeep Lamichhane can rediscover his magic. The leg-spinner has managed just one wicket at an average of 94 this World Cup — a far cry from the bowler who took 4/11 against this same Scotland side just eight months ago.
Key Matchups: Munsey vs Lamichhane Headlines the Battle
George Munsey vs Sandeep Lamichhane: The defining duel. When these teams last met, Lamichhane destroyed Scotland with 4/11 as they crumbled to 97 all out. But Munsey struck back in the second match with 78 as Scotland posted 193/5. At the Wankhede, where the ball comes on nicely to the bat and the short boundaries punish anything loose, Munsey has the advantage — but Lamichhane's googly remains one of the most dangerous deliveries in associate cricket. This matchup could determine the entire contest.
Richie Berrington vs Nepal's Pace Attack: Berrington's experience and composure in the middle overs make him the key to Scotland building a competitive total. Nepal's seamers have struggled for consistency, but if they can create early pressure and remove Munsey, Berrington's ability to rotate strike and accelerate becomes crucial.
Scotland's Bowling vs Rohit Paudel: Nepal's captain is their most consistent run-scorer and the one batter Scotland must plan for. If Scotland can remove Paudel cheaply, Nepal's middle order — for all Airee's power — lacks the depth to recover consistently. The field settings and matchup bowling against Paudel will be a key tactical battle.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Scotland and Nepal have met twice in T20Is — both during the Scotland T20 Tri-Series in June 2025 in Glasgow. Nepal won the first encounter, bowling Scotland out for 97 (Lamichhane 4/11), before Scotland dominated the second match with 193/5 (Munsey 78). The series is perfectly level at 1-1, making this effectively a decider — and the first time these teams have met on neutral territory.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai — Capacity: 33,000. One of cricket's most iconic venues, known for its flat batting surface and notoriously short boundaries that punish anything short or wide.
- Pitch: Average T20I first innings score of 173. Batting-friendly surface that rewards strokemakers. Teams batting first have won 6 of the last 8 T20Is here — the surface deteriorates slightly in the second innings.
- Weather: 28°C, clear skies, no rain expected. Dew will be a significant factor in the second innings of this night match (7:00 PM IST start), potentially making it harder for bowlers to grip the ball.
- Toss: Bat first. Despite dew favouring chasing, the batting-first record (6/8 wins) dominates. Teams posting 170+ have an excellent record at the Wankhede — the chasing side has to deal with increasing pressure as the innings progresses on a pitch that offers less as the match goes on.
Where This Match Will Be Won and Lost
Powerplay (overs 1-6): Scotland's strength. Munsey is one of the most destructive powerplay batters in associate cricket, and the Wankhede's short square boundaries turn his pull shots into sixes. Nepal's new-ball bowling needs to be immaculate — any width or length errors will be punished. Conversely, Nepal's openers must survive Scotland's opening spell. If they can reach 35-40 without losing more than one wicket, they're in the game.
Middle overs (7-15): This is where Lamichhane's impact — or lack thereof — becomes decisive. In the first meeting, his leg-spin was unplayable. In this World Cup, he's been toothless. The Wankhede pitch historically doesn't offer huge turn, but Lamichhane's variations (googly, slider, flight) don't rely on surface assistance. Scotland's middle order needs to be proactive against Nepal's spinners rather than letting them settle into a rhythm.
Death overs (16-20): Scotland have better death bowling options and more experience managing the slog overs. If the match is tight in the final five overs, Scotland's superior experience in high-pressure situations — evidenced by their competitive 153 against England — should tell. Nepal's death bowling has been their most consistent weakness this tournament.
Scotland vs Nepal Prediction: Scotland Favoured but Nepal Offer Value
Our model gives Scotland a 60.5% win probability, slightly below the market's 64.4%. That discrepancy is meaningful — the market may be overweighting Nepal's 0-3 record without fully accounting for the quality of their performances, particularly the four-run England loss. Scotland are the better team on paper, but this is closer than the market suggests.
The dead rubber dynamic adds unpredictability. Scotland could approach this with less intensity, having already been eliminated. Nepal, conversely, are playing for pride, for their fans who travelled to India, and for the growth of Nepali cricket on the world stage. Motivation asymmetry in dead rubbers has historically produced upsets. See our Afghanistan vs UAE analysis for how associate dynamics play out differently when the pressure shifts.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Model | Market | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 60.5% | 64.4% | 1.62 | 1.65 |
| Nepal | 39.5% | 41.3% | 2.64 | 2.53 |
Nepal offer genuine value. Nepal at 2.64 (Betfair) versus fair odds of 2.53 represents a 4.3% edge — the most significant value we've found in today's associate matches. Scotland at 1.62 against fair 1.65 offers no value whatsoever; the market has them slightly overpriced. If you believe Nepal's near-miss against England was more representative than their Italy collapse, the 2.64 price is appealing for a team that has nothing to lose and everything to prove.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Scotland vs Nepal in the T20 World Cup 2026?
Our AI prediction model gives Scotland a 60.5% chance of winning this Group C match at the Wankhede Stadium. Scotland's superior batting depth and tournament experience give them the edge, but Nepal's competitive performances — particularly their four-run loss to England — make this closer than the 0-3 record suggests.
What is the toss prediction for Scotland vs Nepal?
The toss winner should choose to bat first. Teams batting first have won 6 of the last 8 T20Is at the Wankhede, and the average first innings score of 173 gives a strong platform. While dew in the second innings of this night match could aid chasing, the batting-first record is more compelling.
What are the best odds for Scotland vs Nepal?
Scotland's best available odds are 1.62 with Betfair, against fair odds of 1.65 — no value. Nepal's best is 2.64 with Betfair versus fair 2.53, offering a genuine 4.3% edge. Nepal represent the clear value side of this market.
Does this match matter for qualification?
No. Both Scotland and Nepal are eliminated from Super Eight contention. West Indies (3-0) and England (3-1) have already qualified from Group C. This is a dead rubber, though it remains significant for team pride, NRR, and the development of associate cricket.
What is the pitch like at Wankhede Stadium?
The Wankhede offers a flat, batting-friendly surface with notoriously short boundaries. Average T20I first innings score is 173. The pitch rewards strokemakers and punishes loose bowling — ideal for Scotland's George Munsey. Dew in evening sessions makes the ball harder to grip for bowlers in the second innings.
What is the head-to-head record between Scotland and Nepal?
Scotland and Nepal have played 2 T20Is, both in the June 2025 Tri-Series in Glasgow. The series is tied 1-1. Nepal won the first match (bowling Scotland out for 97, Lamichhane 4/11) and Scotland won the second (193/5, Munsey 78). This Wankhede encounter is effectively the series decider.
Who are the key players for Scotland vs Nepal?
For Scotland, George Munsey is the game-changer — his explosive batting and the Wankhede's short boundaries are a perfect match. Richie Berrington provides the anchor. For Nepal, captain Rohit Paudel must lead from the front with the bat, while Sandeep Lamichhane's form (4/11 vs Scotland last time, but just 1 wicket this World Cup) is the biggest variable.
