Who Will Win PSL 2026? Prediction, Probabilities & Betting Guide
Last updated: 15 January 2026
PSL 11 expands to 8 teams. Hyderabad and Sialkot join the league. The biggest PSL season ever runs March 26 to May 3, 2026 across 5 Pakistani venues.
Bookmakers haven’t released odds yet — the draft is January 30. But we’ve built a probability model based on title history, squad strength, and recent form. Our prediction: Lahore Qalandars (30%) to defend their crown. They’ve won 3 of the last 4 titles under Shaheen Afridi. Islamabad United (24%) are the only team matching their pedigree.
This guide tells you exactly what odds to look for when markets open. If you can beat our trigger prices, you have value.
How to Use This Guide
Bookmakers haven’t set PSL 2026 outright odds yet. They’re waiting for the January 30 draft to see squad compositions. But you don’t need to wait. Here’s how to get ahead:
How Our Trigger Prices Work
1. We calculate each team's WIN PROBABILITY based on title history, squad strength, and form
2. From that, we derive FAIR ODDS (100 ÷ probability)
3. The TRIGGER PRICE adds an 8% buffer for value
Example: Lahore Qalandars
30%
Our Probability
3.33
Fair Odds
3.60+
Trigger Price
When odds release, we’ll update this page with actual edge calculations. For now, these trigger prices tell you exactly when to bet.
Our Probability Model: All 8 Teams
Win probabilities based on title history, squad continuity, and recent form. Trigger prices include 8% value buffer.
| Team | Win Prob | Fair Odds | Trigger Price | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lahore Qalandars | 30% | 3.33 | 3.60+ | Back at 3.60 or better |
| Islamabad United | 24% | 4.17 | 4.50+ | Back at 4.50 or better |
| Quetta Gladiators | 13% | 7.69 | 8.50+ | Back at 8.50 or better |
| Multan Sultans | 12% | 8.33 | 9.00+ | Back at 9.00 or better |
| Peshawar Zalmi | 10% | 10.00 | 11.00+ | Back at 11.00 or better |
| Karachi Kings | 7% | 14.29 | 16.00+ | Back at 16.00 or better |
| Hyderabad (NEW) | 2.5% | 40.00 | 50.00+ | Avoid under 50.00 |
| Sialkot (NEW) | 1.5% | 66.67 | 80.00+ | Avoid under 80.00 |
Probabilities sum to 100%. We'll add bookmaker odds when markets open.
Best PSL Betting Sites
These bookmakers will offer PSL 2026 outright markets. Sign up now to be ready when odds release.
Our Recommendations
Our Pick
Lahore Qalandars
30%
Win Prob
3.33
Fair Odds
3.60+
Trigger
3 titles in 4 years. Defending champions. Shaheen Afridi captains the best pace attack in PSL. They chased 202 in the 2025 final — highest successful chase in PSL final history. Back at 3.60 or better.
Secondary Pick
Islamabad United
24%
Win Prob
4.17
Fair Odds
4.50+
Trigger
Joint most titles (3). Inaugural PSL champions. Most consistent playoff team in league history. Shadab Khan leads. Coach TBA after Hesson left. Back at 4.50 or better.
Dark Horse
Quetta Gladiators
13%
Win Prob
7.69
Fair Odds
8.50+
Trigger
2025 finalists. Resurgent under new captain Saud Shakeel. Lost a high-scoring final to Lahore. Momentum from 2025 run. Watch the draft — if they secure key bowlers, back at 8.50+.
Fade
Hyderabad & Sialkot (New)
4%
Combined
50+
Min Trigger
New franchises historically struggle. Zero retained players. Untested management. Late draft picks. Gujarat Titans (IPL 2022) are the rare exception. Don't touch under 50.00 for Hyderabad or 80.00 for Sialkot.
Trigger prices calculated as fair odds × 1.08 to ensure minimum 8% expected value. Learn more about value betting in our guide.
Team-by-Team Analysis
Lahore Qalandars
30% WIN PROBDefending Champions
Dynasty status. 3 titles in 4 years.
Captain: Shaheen Shah Afridi — only player to captain 3 PSL title wins
2025 Final: Chased 202 vs Quetta with 1 ball to spare. Kusal Perera 62* (31). Shaheen 3/24.
Key players: Shaheen Afridi, Haris Rauf, Rashid Khan, Fakhar Zaman, Sikandar Raza
Coach: Russell Domingo (appointed March 2025)
Trigger: Back at 3.60+
Risk: Target of every team. Heavy workload on Shaheen across formats.
Islamabad United
24% WIN PROB3x Champions
PSL's most consistent playoff team.
Captain: Shadab Khan — leg-spin all-rounder, proven leader
Titles: 2016 (inaugural), 2018, 2024 — joint most with Lahore
Key players: Shadab Khan, Hasan Ali, Naseem Shah, Azam Khan
Coach: TBA — Mike Hesson left to coach Pakistan
Trigger: Back at 4.50+
Risk: Coach vacancy. Alex Hales left after 2024. Draft picks crucial.
Quetta Gladiators
13% WIN PROB2025 Finalists
Resurgent after lean years.
Captain: Saud Shakeel — elegant left-hander, appointed 2025
2025 run: Reached final after several poor seasons. Hassan Nawaz (76 in final) was standout.
Key players: Saud Shakeel, Sarfaraz Ahmed, Mohammad Hasnain
Coach: Moin Khan
Trigger: Back at 8.50+
Risk: 2025 final loss may affect confidence. Still rebuilding.
Multan Sultans
12% WIN PROBOwnership Uncertainty
Rizwan anchors. But ownership chaos looms.
Captain: Mohammad Rizwan — Pakistan's Mr. Consistent
Ownership: Ali Tareen exited. PCB running team for 2026. New buyer bids due Jan 30.
Key players: Mohammad Rizwan, Shan Masood, Waqar Salamkheil
Title: 2021 champions, but dismal 2025 (6th place)
Trigger: Back at 9.00+
Risk: Ownership uncertainty affecting morale and retention. Avoid unless odds drift.
Peshawar Zalmi
10% WIN PROB2017 Champions
Babar Azam carries everything.
Captain: Babar Azam — world-class batter, Pakistan captain
Coach/Mentor: Darren Sammy — former captain, now in advisory role
Key players: Babar Azam, Haider Ali, Hussain Talat, Mohammad Haris
2025: 5th place. Struggled for consistency.
Trigger: Back at 11.00+
Risk: Over-reliant on Babar. When he fails, middle order collapses. Wahab Riaz retired (2023).
Karachi Kings
7% WIN PROB2020 Champions
Warner boost. But recent form poor.
Captain: Saim Ayub — young Pakistani talent (David Warner marquee player)
Coach: Andy Flower
Key players: David Warner, Saim Ayub, Imad Wasim, Abrar Ahmed
Recent form: Multiple poor finishes since 2020 title. Mohammad Amir retired (2022).
Trigger: Back at 16.00+
Risk: Squad needs overhaul. Warner alone can't fix structural issues.
New Franchises: Hyderabad & Sialkot
Two new teams join PSL for the first time in 2026. Both were sold on January 8, 2026 at the PCB auction in Islamabad.
Hyderabad
Owner: FKS Group (Fawad Sarwar)
- • Fee: PKR 1.75 billion (~$6.2M/year)
- • Background: US-based conglomerate. Also owns Chicago Kingsmen (US Minor League Cricket).
- • Team name: TBA (ceremony late January)
- • Players: None yet — building via draft
Win Prob: 2.5% | Trigger: 50.00+
Sialkot
Owner: OZ Developers (Hamza Majeed)
- • Fee: PKR 1.85 billion (~$6.55M/year) — highest in PSL history
- • Background: Real estate/tech consortium. Sialkot native based in Australia.
- • Possible name: Sialkot Shaheens (rumoured)
- • Players: None yet — last in draft order
Win Prob: 1.5% | Trigger: 80.00+
Why we’re bearish on new franchises:
New T20 teams historically struggle in year one. They have no retained players, no established culture, and late draft picks. The only exception in recent memory is Gujarat Titans (IPL 2022) — who won on debut. But that’s one outlier across dozens of new franchises globally.
Don’t back Hyderabad under 50.00 or Sialkot under 80.00. Even at those prices, you’re taking on significant risk.
The Dew Factor: Why Chasing Wins in Pakistan
Understanding Pakistan’s unique conditions is crucial for PSL betting.
The data: Chasing teams win ~65% of night matches in Pakistan.
Why it matters:
- Heavy evening dew sets in during the second innings
- Ball becomes slippery — bowlers cannot grip it
- Spinners become ineffective
- Batting becomes significantly easier
Betting implication: Teams that win the toss overwhelmingly choose to bowl first. If you’re backing a team to win the title, they need to be strong chasers.
Best chasers: Islamabad United and Lahore Qalandars have the best chase records. This is a key factor in their championship success.
Draft Preview: January 30, 2026
The PSL 11 draft takes place January 30, 2026. Here’s what to watch:
Retention rules: Each existing team can retain approximately 3-6 players (exact number TBC after PCB-franchise negotiations).
Key overseas registrations:
- Faf du Plessis — confirmed he’ll skip IPL for PSL
- Mustafizur Rahman — registered
- Other Big Bash and CPL stars expected
New team advantage: Hyderabad and Sialkot get priority picks in early rounds to help competitive balance. But they’re building from scratch — chemistry takes time.
Draft impact on odds: Expect bookmaker odds to release within days of the draft. We’ll update this page with actual odds and edge calculations then.
PSL 2026 Title History
| Year | Champion | Runner-up | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lahore Qalandars | Quetta Gladiators | Lahore |
| 2024 | Islamabad United | Multan Sultans | Karachi |
| 2023 | Lahore Qalandars | Multan Sultans | Lahore |
| 2022 | Lahore Qalandars | Multan Sultans | Lahore |
| 2021 | Multan Sultans | Peshawar Zalmi | Abu Dhabi |
| 2020 | Karachi Kings | Lahore Qalandars | Karachi |
| 2019 | Quetta Gladiators | Peshawar Zalmi | Karachi |
| 2018 | Islamabad United | Peshawar Zalmi | Karachi |
| 2017 | Peshawar Zalmi | Quetta Gladiators | Lahore |
| 2016 | Islamabad United | Quetta Gladiators | Dubai |
Key insight: Only Lahore Qalandars have won back-to-back titles (2022-23). They’re the form team of modern PSL.
PSL 2026 Predictions FAQ
Who will win PSL 2026?
Our probability model gives Lahore Qalandars a 30% chance to win PSL 2026. They are defending champions with 3 titles in 4 years (2022, 2023, 2025) under captain Shaheen Afridi.
When will PSL 2026 betting odds be available?
Bookmakers typically release outright odds after the player draft (January 30, 2026). Expect odds in early February 2026. We will update this page with actual odds and edge calculations when available.
What odds should I look for on Lahore Qalandars?
Based on our 30% probability model, fair odds for Lahore are 3.33. We recommend backing them only at 3.60 or better to ensure positive expected value.
Should I bet on new teams Hyderabad or Sialkot?
Avoid new franchises unless odds exceed 50.00. New T20 teams historically struggle in year one with no retained players, untested management, and late draft picks. Gujarat Titans (IPL 2022) are the rare exception.
How many teams are in PSL 2026?
PSL 11 expands to 8 teams for the first time. Two new franchises join: Hyderabad (FKS Group) and Sialkot (OZ Developers), alongside the six existing teams.
When does PSL 2026 start?
PSL 2026 runs from March 26 to May 3, 2026. The tournament features 44 matches across 5 venues: Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi, Multan, and Faisalabad (PSL debut).
Which teams have won PSL titles?
Lahore Qalandars and Islamabad United lead with 3 titles each. Peshawar Zalmi, Quetta Gladiators, Karachi Kings, and Multan Sultans have 1 title each. Only Lahore have won back-to-back (2022-23).
What happened to Multan Sultans ownership?
Ali Tareen exited after the 2025 season. The PCB is temporarily managing Multan Sultans for 2026 while seeking a new buyer. This ownership uncertainty adds risk to backing them.
Our Prediction
Lahore Qalandars to Win PSL 2026
Defending champions. 3 titles in 4 years. Shaheen Afridi's pace attack is the best in PSL. Back them at 3.60 or better when odds release.
30%
Win Prob
3.33
Fair Odds
3.60+
Trigger
Jan 30
Draft
Summary
- ● Primary: Lahore Qalandars — back at 3.60+ (30% probability)
- ● Secondary: Islamabad United — back at 4.50+ (24% probability)
- ● Dark Horse: Quetta Gladiators — back at 8.50+ (13% probability)
- ● Avoid: New franchises under 50.00 (Hyderabad) / 80.00 (Sialkot)
- ● Tournament: March 26 – May 3, 2026 | 8 teams | 44 matches
Bookmark this page. We'll update with actual bookmaker odds and edge calculations after the January 30 draft.
Looking for daily PSL match predictions? Visit our PSL betting tips page for individual match analysis once the tournament begins.
Analysis accurate as of January 15, 2026. Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly. For more on betting legality in India, see our legal guide.