Who Will Win PSL 2026? Prediction, Probabilities & Betting Guide
Last updated: 26 February 2026 · Post-auction update — squads finalised
PSL 11 expands to 8 teams. Hyderabad Houston Kingsmen and Sialkot Stallionz join the league. Multan Sultans have been replaced by Rawalpindi with Mohammad Rizwan. The biggest PSL season ever runs March 26 to May 25, 2026 across 5 Pakistani venues, with the final at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore.
The first-ever PSL auction was held on February 11 in Lahore — replacing the draft system used since 2016. Squads are now finalised. Bookmaker odds have opened: Islamabad United and Quetta Gladiators are joint favorites at 3.75, while Karachi Kings sit at 4.00. Notably, Lahore Qalandars — our model’s 30% favorites — are longer at 5.50, creating significant value. Islamabad United (24%) remain the only franchise matching their title pedigree.
⚡ February 22 Update — Schedule Confirmed
🏏 First-ever PSL auction (Feb 11, Lahore) — replaced the draft. All 8 squads now finalised.
🔄 Multan Sultans → Rawalpindi: Ownership change. Rizwan leads the new Rawalpindi franchise.
🚨 Islamabad United squad change: Released Shamar Joseph (Feb 12) after fan backlash. Replaced by Blessing Muzarabani — 6'8" Zimbabwean pacer with PSL title experience (Multan 2021).
🆕 New franchise names: Hyderabad Houston Kingsmen (Saim Ayub, Marnus Labuschagne) & Sialkot Stallionz (Steve Smith, Tabraiz Shamsi).
💰 Top buys: Naseem Shah → Rawalpindi (Rs 8.65 Cr), Faheem Ashraf → Islamabad (Rs 8.5 Cr), Warner → Karachi (Rs 7.9 Cr).
📅 Schedule confirmed: Tournament runs March 26 – May 25. Final at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore.
🌍 T20 World Cup: Feb 7 – March 8 (India/Sri Lanka). No clash with PSL start, but may affect pre-tournament overseas player availability.
🎯 ODDS RELEASED: Islamabad United & Quetta Gladiators joint favorites at 3.75. Karachi Kings 4.00. Lahore Qalandars longer at 5.50 despite our model rating them #1.
How to Use This Guide
The first-ever PSL auction was held on February 11. Squads are finalised. Bookmaker outright odds are expected to launch shortly. Our trigger prices tell you exactly when to bet:
How Our Trigger Prices Work
1. We calculate each team's WIN PROBABILITY based on title history, squad strength, and form
2. From that, we derive FAIR ODDS (100 ÷ probability)
3. The TRIGGER PRICE adds an 8% buffer for value
Example: Lahore Qalandars
30%
Our Probability
3.33
Fair Odds
3.60+
Trigger Price
When odds release, we’ll update this page with actual edge calculations. For now, these trigger prices tell you exactly when to bet.
Our Probability Model: All 8 Teams
Win probabilities vs actual bookmaker odds. Green indicates value bets where our model exceeds market pricing.
| Team | Win Prob | Fair Odds | Market Odds | Edge | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lahore Qalandars | 30% | 3.33 | 5.50 | +10.0% | 🎯 BACK NOW |
| Islamabad United | 24% | 4.17 | 3.75 | -2.5% | Skip (short) |
| Quetta Gladiators | 13% | 7.69 | 3.75 | -14.0% | Avoid (very short) |
| Karachi Kings | 7% | 14.29 | 4.00 | -18.0% | Avoid (massively short) |
| Peshawar Zalmi | 10% | 10.00 | 7.50 | -3.3% | Skip (short) |
| Rawalpindi | 12% | 8.33 | TBA | TBA | Monitor when priced |
| Hyderabad (NEW) | 2.5% | 40.00 | Not priced | — | Avoid under 50.00 |
| Sialkot (NEW) | 1.5% | 66.67 | Not priced | — | Avoid under 80.00 |
Odds as of Feb 15, 2026. Lahore Qalandars 5.50 offers excellent value at +10.0% edge.
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Our Recommendations
Our Pick
Lahore Qalandars
30%
Win Prob
3.33
Fair Odds
5.50
Market Odds
3 titles in 4 years. Defending champions. Market has them at 5.50 despite being our 30% favorites. Shaheen Afridi captains the best pace attack in PSL. Excellent value at current odds — +10.0% edge.
Secondary Pick
Islamabad United
24%
Win Prob
4.17
Fair Odds
3.75
Market Odds
Joint most titles (3). Market favorites at 3.75. Most consistent playoff team in league history. Shadab Khan leads. No value at current odds — market has overpriced them.
Dark Horse
Quetta Gladiators
13%
Win Prob
7.69
Fair Odds
8.50+
Trigger
2025 finalists. Resurgent under new captain Saud Shakeel. Lost a high-scoring final to Lahore. Momentum from 2025 run. Watch the draft — if they secure key bowlers, back at 8.50+.
Fade
Hyderabad & Sialkot (New)
4%
Combined
50+
Min Trigger
New franchises historically struggle. Zero retained players. Untested management. Late draft picks. Gujarat Titans (IPL 2022) are the rare exception. Don't touch under 50.00 for Hyderabad or 80.00 for Sialkot.
Trigger prices calculated as fair odds × 1.08 to ensure minimum 8% expected value. Learn more about value betting in our guide.
Team-by-Team Analysis
Lahore Qalandars
30% WIN PROBDefending Champions
Dynasty status. 3 titles in 4 years.
Captain: Shaheen Shah Afridi — only player to captain 3 PSL title wins
2025 Final: Chased 202 vs Quetta with 1 ball to spare. Kusal Perera 62* (31). Shaheen 3/24.
Retained: Shaheen Afridi (Rs 7 Cr), Sikandar Raza, Abdullah Shafique
Auction buys: Fakhar Zaman (Rs 7.95 Cr), Haris Rauf (Rs 7.6 Cr), Usama Mir, Mohammad Hasnain
Direct signing: Mustafizur Rahman
Trigger: Back at 3.60+
Risk: Target of every team. Heavy workload on Shaheen across formats.
Islamabad United
24% WIN PROB3x Champions
PSL's most consistent playoff team.
Captain: Shadab Khan — leg-spin all-rounder, proven leader
Titles: 2016 (inaugural), 2018, 2024 — joint most with Lahore
Retained: Shadab Khan (Rs 7 Cr), Andries Gous, Salman Irshad
Auction buys: Faheem Ashraf (Rs 8.5 Cr), Mark Chapman, Mehran Mumtaz
Direct signing: Devon Conway — NZ's WC star, adds reliable top-order batting
Squad change: Released Shamar Joseph (Feb 12). Blessing Muzarabani (Zimbabwe, 6'8") joins pace attack — PSL title winner with Multan 2021.
Trigger: Back at 4.50+
Risk: Squad management concerns after Joseph release. Muzarabani modest PSL record (7.79 economy). Depth questions.
Quetta Gladiators
13% WIN PROB2025 Finalists
Resurgent after lean years.
Retained: Abrar Ahmed (Rs 7 Cr), Usman Tariq, Hassan Nawaz
Direct signing: Spencer Johnson (Australia) — lethal fast bowler
Auction buys: Rilee Rossouw, Shamyl Hussain, Arafat Minhas
2025 run: Reached final after several poor seasons. Hassan Nawaz (76 in final) was standout.
Trigger: Back at 8.50+
Risk: 2025 final loss may affect confidence. Still rebuilding.
Rawalpindi
12% WIN PROBReplaces Multan Sultans
Rizwan leads the rebrand. Naseem Shah arrives.
Captain: Mohammad Rizwan (retained, Rs 5.6 Cr) — Pakistan's Mr. Consistent
Context: Multan Sultans rebranded to Rawalpindi after ownership change. Rizwan stays as franchise cornerstone.
Key auction buys: Naseem Shah (Rs 8.65 Cr — most expensive at auction), Daryl Mitchell, Mohammad Amir
Retained: Rizwan, Sam Billings
Trigger: Back at 9.00+
Risk: New franchise identity, transition phase. But Rizwan + Naseem is elite. Worth watching.
Peshawar Zalmi
10% WIN PROB2017 Champions
Babar Azam carries everything.
Captain: Babar Azam — world-class batter, Pakistan captain
Retained: Babar Azam (Rs 7 Cr), Sufiyan Muqeem, Abdul Samad
Direct signing: Aaron Hardie (Australia) — all-rounder
Auction buys: Iftikhar Ahmed, Kusal Mendis, James Vince, Michael Bracewell
2025: 5th place. Struggled for consistency.
Trigger: Back at 11.00+
Risk: Over-reliant on Babar. When he fails, middle order collapses. Wahab Riaz retired (2023).
Karachi Kings
7% WIN PROB2020 Champions
Warner boost. But recent form poor.
Retained: Hassan Ali (Rs 4.76 Cr), Khushdil Shah, Abbas Afridi
Auction buys: David Warner (Rs 7.9 Cr), Salman Ali Agha, Azam Khan, Adam Zampa
Direct signing: Moeen Ali
Note: Saim Ayub moved to Hyderabad. Warner and Moeen bring international experience.
Trigger: Back at 16.00+
Risk: Squad needs overhaul. Warner alone can't fix structural issues.
New Franchises: Hyderabad Houston Kingsmen & Sialkot Stallionz
Two new teams join PSL for the first time in 2026. Squads finalised via the February 11 auction.
Hyderabad Houston Kingsmen
Owner: FKS Group (Fawad Sarwar)
- • Retained: Saim Ayub (Rs 12.6 Cr — highest retention), Usman Khan
- • Direct signing: Marnus Labuschagne (Australia)
- • Auction buys: Kusal Perera, Irfan Khan Niazi, Riley Meredith
- • Star power: Saim Ayub is Pakistan's most exciting young batter. Labuschagne adds class.
Win Prob: 2.5% | Trigger: 50.00+
Sialkot Stallionz
Owner: OZ Developers (Hamza Majeed)
- • Retained: Mohammad Nawaz (Rs 6.16 Cr), Salman Mirza, Ahmed Daniyal
- • Direct signing: Steve Smith (Australia) — massive marquee
- • Auction buys: Ashton Turner, Josh Philippe, Peter Siddle, Tabraiz Shamsi
- • Analysis: Strong Aussie contingent. Smith and Turner bring IPL/BBL experience.
Win Prob: 1.5% | Trigger: 80.00+
Why we’re bearish on new franchises:
New T20 teams historically struggle in year one. They have no retained players, no established culture, and late draft picks. The only exception in recent memory is Gujarat Titans (IPL 2022) — who won on debut. But that’s one outlier across dozens of new franchises globally.
Don’t back Hyderabad under 50.00 or Sialkot under 80.00. Even at those prices, you’re taking on significant risk.
The Dew Factor: Why Chasing Wins in Pakistan
Understanding Pakistan’s unique conditions is crucial for PSL betting.
The data: Chasing teams win ~65% of night matches in Pakistan.
Why it matters:
- Heavy evening dew sets in during the second innings
- Ball becomes slippery — bowlers cannot grip it
- Spinners become ineffective
- Batting becomes significantly easier
Betting implication: Teams that win the toss overwhelmingly choose to bowl first. If you’re backing a team to win the title, they need to be strong chasers.
Best chasers: Islamabad United and Lahore Qalandars have the best chase records. This is a key factor in their championship success.
Auction Recap: February 11, 2026
The first-ever PSL auction replaced the draft system used since 2016. Key takeaways:
Format: Each franchise had a purse of Rs 450 million (extendable to Rs 505 million for one direct overseas signing). Teams retained 3-4 players before entering the auction.
Most expensive buys:
| Player | Team | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Naseem Shah | Rawalpindi | Rs 8.65 Cr |
| Faheem Ashraf | Islamabad United | Rs 8.5 Cr |
| Fakhar Zaman | Lahore Qalandars | Rs 7.95 Cr |
| David Warner | Karachi Kings | Rs 7.9 Cr |
| Haris Rauf | Lahore Qalandars | Rs 7.6 Cr |
Key direct signings: Mustafizur Rahman (Lahore), Devon Conway (Islamabad), Steve Smith (Sialkot), Marnus Labuschagne (Hyderabad), Moeen Ali (Karachi), Spencer Johnson (Quetta), Aaron Hardie (Peshawar).
Biggest surprise: Saim Ayub — Pakistan’s hottest young talent — was retained by Hyderabad Houston Kingsmen for Rs 12.6 Cr, the highest retention in PSL history. Many expected him to stay at Karachi.
Odds update: Multiple bookmakers have opened outright markets. Islamabad United and Quetta Gladiators are joint favorites at 3.75, suggesting the market believes auction activity favored these teams over pre-tournament favorites Lahore Qalandars.
PSL 2026 Title History
| Year | Champion | Runner-up | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lahore Qalandars | Quetta Gladiators | Lahore |
| 2024 | Islamabad United | Multan Sultans | Karachi |
| 2023 | Lahore Qalandars | Multan Sultans | Lahore |
| 2022 | Lahore Qalandars | Multan Sultans | Lahore |
| 2021 | Multan Sultans | Peshawar Zalmi | Abu Dhabi |
| 2020 | Karachi Kings | Lahore Qalandars | Karachi |
| 2019 | Quetta Gladiators | Peshawar Zalmi | Karachi |
| 2018 | Islamabad United | Peshawar Zalmi | Karachi |
| 2017 | Peshawar Zalmi | Quetta Gladiators | Lahore |
| 2016 | Islamabad United | Quetta Gladiators | Dubai |
Key insight: Only Lahore Qalandars have won back-to-back titles (2022-23). They’re the form team of modern PSL. For the latest PSL news and analysis on Wisden, including auction reactions and squad assessments.
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PSL 2026 Predictions FAQ
Who will win PSL 2026?
Our probability model gives Lahore Qalandars a 30% chance to win PSL 2026. They are defending champions with 3 titles in 4 years (2022, 2023, 2025) under captain Shaheen Afridi.
What are the current PSL 2026 betting odds?
Bookmaker outright odds have been released post-auction. Islamabad United and Quetta Gladiators are joint favorites at 3.75. Karachi Kings are 4.00. Our model favors Lahore Qalandars at 5.50 — excellent value with +10% edge.
Should I back Lahore Qalandars at 5.50 odds?
Yes! Based on our 30% probability model, fair odds for Lahore are 3.33. At 5.50, you have a massive +10.0% edge. This is excellent value — the market has significantly underpriced the defending champions.
Should I bet on new teams Hyderabad or Sialkot?
Avoid new franchises unless odds exceed 50.00. New T20 teams historically struggle in year one with no retained players, untested management, and late draft picks. Gujarat Titans (IPL 2022) are the rare exception.
How many teams are in PSL 2026?
PSL 11 expands to 8 teams for the first time. Two new franchises: Hyderabad Houston Kingsmen (FKS Group) and Sialkot Stallionz (OZ Developers). Rawalpindi replaces Multan Sultans after an ownership change.
When does PSL 2026 start?
PSL 2026 runs March 26 to May 25, 2026, with the final at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore. 44 matches across 5 venues: Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi, Multan, and Faisalabad.
Which teams have won PSL titles?
Lahore Qalandars and Islamabad United lead with 3 titles each. Peshawar Zalmi, Quetta Gladiators, Karachi Kings, and Multan Sultans have 1 title each. Only Lahore have won back-to-back (2022-23).
What happened to Multan Sultans?
Multan Sultans have been replaced by Rawalpindi for PSL 2026 following an ownership change. Mohammad Rizwan remains as captain of the Rawalpindi franchise. Naseem Shah was the most expensive buy at the Feb 11 auction (Rs 8.65 Cr).
Our Prediction
Lahore Qalandars to Win PSL 2026
Defending champions. 3 titles in 4 years. Shaheen Afridi's pace attack is the best in PSL. Back them at 3.60 or better when odds release.
30%
Win Prob
3.33
Fair Odds
3.60+
Trigger
Mar 26
Start Date
Summary
- ● Primary: Lahore Qalandars — excellent value at 5.50 (+10% edge)
- ● Secondary: Islamabad United — market favorite but overpriced at 3.75
- ● Dark Horse: Quetta Gladiators — avoid at current 3.75 (too short)
- ● Avoid: New franchises unless priced at 50.00+ (Hyderabad) / 80.00+ (Sialkot)
- ● Tournament: March 26 – May 25, 2026 | 8 teams | 44 matches
Bookmark this page. We'll update with actual bookmaker odds and edge calculations when markets open.
Looking for daily PSL match predictions? Visit our PSL betting tips page for individual match analysis once the tournament begins.
Analysis updated February 26, 2026 with latest odds verification. Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly. For more on betting legality in India, see our legal guide.