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PREDICTED
VS
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NEP

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai

T20 World Cup 2026

England vs Nepal Match Prediction

Last updated: 19 January 2026

Close Call Model tips England at 85% (fair odds 1.18)
Prediction: England (85%)
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Class meets courage at Wankhede. England, two-time T20 World Cup champions, open their 2026 campaign against Nepal in what is the first-ever T20I meeting between these sides. Phil Salt arrives in career-best form with 4 T20I centuries - more than any England player - including a record-breaking 141* off 60 balls against South Africa in September 2025. Nepal, ranked 17th by ICC, qualified unbeaten through the Asia-EAP qualifiers and made history by beating West Indies 2-1 in September 2025.

England's 2025: Salt's Breakout Year

Phil Salt has transformed into the world's most destructive T20I opener. His 39-ball century against South Africa in September 2025 broke Liam Livingstone's England record (42 balls, set in July 2021 vs Pakistan at Trent Bridge). England posted 304/2 in that match - a world record for a Full Member nation. Salt also hit 119 off 57 balls against West Indies in December 2023, proving this form is no fluke.

However, England also tasted bitter defeat in India. In the January 2025 T20I series, India won 4-1 - England's only win came in the 3rd T20I at Rajkot (26-run victory, Duckett 51, Livingstone 43). The 5th T20I at Wankhede was a disaster: bowled out for 97 in 10.3 overs chasing India's 247/9. That 97 remains England's lowest T20I total in India.

New captain Harry Brook takes charge after Jos Buttler resigned following a dismal Champions Trophy 2025. Adil Rashid (ICC #1 T20I bowler in January 2025) and Rehan Ahmed have received their visas after initial delays due to Pakistani heritage. Jofra Archer (44+ T20I wickets) is selected but fitness remains a question mark.

Nepal's 2025: History Makers

Captain Rohit Paudel, just 23, led Nepal to their finest hour in September 2025. The 2-1 T20I series win over West Indies in Sharjah was unprecedented:

  • 1st T20I: Nepal won by 19 runs (148/8 vs 129/9). Paudel scored 38 off 35 and took 1/20.
  • 2nd T20I: Nepal won by 90 runs (173/6 vs 83 all out) - the biggest win by an Associate over a Full Member by runs. Aasif Sheikh hit 68* off 47.
  • 3rd T20I: West Indies won by 10 wickets.

West Indies' 83 all out was the lowest total by a Full Member against an Associate nation in T20Is. Nepal then won the Asia-EAP Qualifier in Oman unbeaten, beating UAE by 1 run and Samoa by 124 runs in the final.

The danger man: Sandeep Lamichhane. His 129 T20I wickets in 68 matches at average 12.14 and economy 5.92 are genuinely world-class. He's played IPL (Delhi Capitals), BBL (Hobart Hurricanes), and PSL (Lahore Qalandars). If Wankhede offers any turn, he can trouble anyone.

Key Players to Watch

PlayerTeamRoleKey Stat
Phil SaltENGOpener4 T20I centuries, 141* vs SA (60 balls, Sep 2025)
Adil RashidENGLeg-spinICC #1 T20I bowler (Jan 2025), 4/32 vs NZ
Sandeep LamichhaneNEPLeg-spin129 T20I wickets at avg 12.14, econ 5.92
Kushal BhurtelNEPOpener1,800+ T20I runs, 69 vs Oman in qualifier
Jofra ArcherENGPace44+ T20I wickets, economy ~7.80

Head-to-Head Record

0-0
T20I Head-to-Head
First Ever Meeting
No T20I history between these teams.
Note: Nepal beat England in Hong Kong Sixes (Nov 2024) - Sundeep Jora 50* off 12 balls

Venue and Conditions

High-scoring
T20I Venue
247/9
Highest T20I Total
3:00 PM
Day Match (Less Dew)

Wankhede Stadium has hosted 9 T20Is with teams chasing winning 5. Average first innings score is ~183. The highest T20I total (247/9, India vs ENG, Feb 2025) and lowest (97, ENG vs IND, Feb 2025) both came in the same match. 3:00 PM local start means less evening dew - the "chase favours" factor is reduced for this fixture.

Why England Are Heavy Favourites

Key Factors
1Firepower - Salt (141*, 4 centuries), Buttler, Brook, Livingstone can all clear boundaries at will
2Bowling depth - Rashid (#1 T20I bowler), Archer, Curran, Rehan Ahmed, Tongue
3Experience - Two-time T20 WC champions (2010, 2022), 2024 semi-finalists
4Level of opposition - Nepal's qualifier wins vs Kuwait, Samoa, Qatar; England faced India, SA, NZ
5Rankings gap - England #3 vs Nepal #17 in ICC T20I rankings

Our Prediction

Nepal have earned respect - the West Indies series win and Lamichhane's quality make them dangerous on their day. But the gap in resources, depth, and experience is substantial. England have multiple match-winners; Nepal rely heavily on Lamichhane creating pressure and their batters capitalising. On a Wankhede pitch where 247 was scored in February 2025, England's firepower should prove decisive.

Prediction: England to win
Confidence: 85%

Betting Value

Value Thresholds
England (85% probability)
Fair odds: 1.18 | Value threshold: 1.24
Nepal (15% probability)
Fair odds: 6.67 | Value threshold: 7.00
If you believe Lamichhane can single-handedly restrict England, Nepal offers long-shot value above 7.00
Heavy favourite - limited value expected. Most bookmakers will price England around 1.10-1.15. This is a SKIP for betting unless odds exceed thresholds.

Win Probability

ENG
NEP

Venue Analysis

Toss Prediction

Bat
Field

Innings Win Rate

1st
Chase