AFG Afghanistan
NZ New Zealand
T20 World Cup 2026
Afghanistan vs New Zealand Match Prediction
Last updated: 19 January 2026
Form trumps reputation. Afghanistan enter this T20 World Cup in crisis - whitewashed 3-0 by Bangladesh in October 2025, bowled out for 66 against Pakistan in September 2025, and knocked out of the T20 Asia Cup by Sri Lanka. Captain Rashid Khan himself admitted: "We played bad cricket... defensive cricket... fielding was so far behind." New Zealand, meanwhile, arrive with Jacob Duffy - the man who broke Richard Hadlee's 40-year-old record with 81 international wickets in 2025.
Afghanistan's 2025: A Year to Forget
The numbers don't lie. Afghanistan's T20I record in 2025:
- T20 Asia Cup (September 2025) - Knocked out by Sri Lanka, failed to reach Super Four
- UAE Tri-Series Final (September 2025) - Bowled out for 66 against Pakistan. Mohammad Nawaz took 5/19 including a hat-trick. Lost by 75 runs.
- Bangladesh Series (October 2025) - Lost 3-0. Clean swept in Sharjah.
After the Bangladesh whitewash, Rashid Khan was brutally honest: "We played bad cricket, to be honest... We haven't shown the attacking intent we are famous for. We played such defensive cricket... Fielding was the area we were so far behind them, and that's why they won three in the series."
The biggest blow: Naveen-ul-Haq is OUT of the World Cup. Their highest wicket-taking pacer (67 wickets at 18.73 in T20Is) requires surgery for a stress fracture in his right shoulder. He was named in the initial squad on December 31, 2025, but ruled out in January. Replacement Zia-ur-Rahman Sharifi is largely unproven at international level.
New Zealand's 2025: Duffy's Breakout Year
Jacob Duffy broke Sir Richard Hadlee's record of 79 wickets in a calendar year, finishing 2025 with 81 international wickets across all formats. He rose to ICC #2 in T20I bowling rankings (699 rating points, behind only Varun Chakaravarthy's 804). This isn't historical reputation - this is current, verified form.
New Zealand's 2025 T20I results were mixed - they won the Zimbabwe Tri-Series in July 2025 (beating South Africa by 3 runs in a last-ball final) but lost 0-2 to Australia at home (Mitchell Marsh's 103* dominated) and 1-0 to England in October 2025 (two matches abandoned to rain). However, they've assembled a spin-heavy squad specifically for Indian conditions: captain Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi combine for 287 T20I wickets. Add Glenn Phillips (off-spin), Rachin Ravindra (left-arm), and Michael Bracewell - this is not a pace-reliant team.
Injury and availability concerns: Finn Allen (finger/hamstring), Mark Chapman (ankle), and Santner (adductor) are all returning from injuries but have been cleared. Additionally, Lockie Ferguson and Matt Henry may take short-term paternity leave during the tournament - NZC confirmed their partners are due during the competition.
Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Role | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Duffy | NZ | Pace Spearhead | 81 intl wickets in 2025, ICC #2 T20I bowler |
| Mitchell Santner | NZ | Captain/Left-arm spin | 130 T20I wickets career, returning from injury |
| Rashid Khan | AFG | Captain/Leg-spin | ICC #3 T20I bowler (694 pts), economy under 6 |
| Rahmanullah Gurbaz | AFG | WK-Batter | Explosive opener, SR around 150 in recent T20Is |
| Glenn Phillips | NZ | Batter/Off-spin | Key middle-order threat, can attack spin |
Head-to-Head Record
But: AFG have since been bowled out for 66 themselves (vs PAK, Sep 2025)
Venue and Conditions
MA Chidambaram Stadium is one of India's premier spin venues. The red soil surface grips and turns progressively. New Zealand have prepared for this - their squad includes five spin options: Santner, Sodhi, Bracewell, Phillips, Ravindra. The "Chennai favours Afghanistan" narrative assumes NZ are pace-reliant - they're not.
Why New Zealand Are Slight Favourites
Our Prediction
The June 2024 T20 World Cup feels like ancient history. Since that 84-run win over New Zealand, Afghanistan have been bowled out for 66, swept 3-0 by Bangladesh, and lost their best pacer to injury. Their captain admits systemic problems. New Zealand have Jacob Duffy in career-best form, a spin-heavy squad built for Chennai, and the Zimbabwe Tri-Series title as recent silverware.
This remains close - Afghanistan's spin trio of Rashid, Mujeeb, and Noor Ahmad can trouble anyone on their day. But recent evidence favours New Zealand.
Prediction: New Zealand to win
Confidence: 55%
