Big Bash League
Hobart Hurricanes vs Sydney Sixers — Prediction Correct ✅
HH Hobart Hurricanes
SS Sydney Sixers
Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Our pre-match predictionResult: Sydney Sixers won by 57 runs (198/8 vs 141)
Our Prediction: SS — Correct
Pre-match analysis published on 23 January 2026:
Redemption or repeat? Sydney Sixers host Hobart Hurricanes in a sudden-death Challenger at the SCG. Just three days ago, the Sixers collapsed to 99 all out against Perth Scorchers in the Qualifier - their lowest BBL finals total in years. The defending champions Hurricanes arrive with momentum after a rain-affected thriller against Melbourne Stars. Both teams carry significant absences: Sam Curran and Babar Azam have departed the Sixers, while the Hurricanes are without Tim David for the entire finals series.
Sydney Sixers BBL|15: Star Power, Finals Frustration
The Sixers assembled arguably the strongest squad in BBL history - Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Babar Azam, and Sam Curran all wearing magenta. The regular season delivered: second place with 13 points and a +0.605 NRR. Smith scored 210 runs including a stunning century against Sydney Thunder. Starc returned after 11 years away and immediately delivered career-best BBL figures of 4/35 against Brisbane Heat.
- vs Brisbane Heat (Jan 18) - Won by 5 wickets. Starc 4/35, Smith 54, Curran 53*. Secured second place.
- vs Perth Scorchers Qualifier (Jan 20) - Lost by 48 runs. Collapsed from 63/3 to 99 all out. Beardman 3/20 including Smith (37).
Captain Moises Henriques described the Qualifier loss as "gutting" and acknowledged the teams recent finals struggles. The Sixers have now lost four of their last five finals matches across BBL|13-15.
Key concern: The batting collapse. Losing 7 wickets for 36 runs against quality pace raises questions about composure under pressure. Additionally, Mitchell Starc reported shoulder discomfort after a diving effort - his fitness for a full spell remains a watch item.
Hobart Hurricanes BBL|15: Defending Champions Fighting
The Hurricanes won BBL|14 with Mitchell Owens record-equalling 39-ball century in the final. This season has been more turbulent - they finished third on 13 points with a +0.331 NRR, narrowly behind the Sixers on net run rate.
- vs Sydney Sixers (Jan 11) - Abandoned due to rain. No result after just 5 overs (SS 32/0).
- vs Melbourne Stars Knockout (Jan 21) - Won by 3 runs (DLS). Beau Webster 47(26) in rain-reduced 10-over affair.
The Knockout win was pure drama. Chasing a revised target of 85 from 7 overs, the Stars needed 26 off the final over. Despite sixes from Stoinis and Cartwright, they fell 3 runs short. Beau Webster was Player of the Match.
Key concern: Tim David has been out since December 29 with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. The Hurricanes primary death-overs finisher is irreplaceable against the likes of Starc and Abbott. Additionally, Nathan Ellis missed the Knockout with a hamstring niggle - he has been cleared to play but match fitness remains uncertain.
Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Role | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | SS | Batter | 210 runs this BBL, century vs Thunder |
| Mitchell Starc | SS | Pace | 9 wickets inc. 4/35 vs Heat - shoulder watch |
| Beau Webster | HH | All-rounder | 47(26) POTM in Knockout - red hot form |
| Nathan Ellis | HH | Captain/Pace | 14 wickets @ 21.28 - returning from injury |
| Ben McDermott | HH | WK-Batter | 244 runs, captained Knockout win |
Head-to-Head Record
Last 5 meetings: Sixers won 4
This season: Abandoned after 5 overs (rain)
Venue and Conditions
The SCG is the Sixers home fortress - they know every blade of grass. The surface rewards batting early before slowing down, making spinners valuable in the middle overs. Square boundaries are short (~68m) but the straight boundary stretches to 80m. In 80 BBL matches here, chasing teams have a slight edge (40 wins vs 37 batting first). No rain expected - clear skies forecast for match time.
Why Sydney Sixers Are Favourites
Our Prediction
The Hurricanes have momentum and Beau Webster is in career-best form. Nathan Ellis returning strengthens their death bowling. But the Tim David absence is crippling against Starcs yorkers at the death. The Sixers collapsed badly in the Qualifier, but they have the superior bowling attack and home advantage.
Both teams have lost key players (Curran/Babar for SS, David/Rehan for HH), but the Sixers depth runs deeper. If Starc is fully fit and Smith fires, the Sixers have enough firepower to reach Sundays final.
Prediction: Sydney Sixers to win
Confidence: 57%
