Perth Scorchers vs Sydney Sixers Match Recap

Pre-match analysis published on 25 January 2026:

The sixth BBL Final between these two powerhouses. Perth Scorchers host Sydney Sixers at Optus Stadium with history, home advantage, and recent dominance all pointing one way. The Scorchers thrashed the Sixers by 48 runs at this very venue just five days ago in the Qualifier, bowling them out for 99. Now they meet again for the title - and the Sixers must find a way to reverse that result without their star batter Babar Azam.

Perth Scorchers' 2025/2026: Dominant From Start to Finish

Ashton Turner's side have been the standout team of BBL|15. Finishing first with 14 points and a net run rate of +1.363, they enter the Final on a four-game winning streak:

• January 20 - Qualifier vs Sixers: Won by 48 runs. Posted 147/9 then bowled Sixers out for 99. Mahli Beardman took 3/20 including the prized wicket of Steven Smith.
• January 17 vs Melbourne Stars: Clinched top spot with Jhye Richardson's four-wicket haul and Finn Allen's 69 off 39 balls in front of a record 48,608 crowd.
• January 15 vs Melbourne Renegades: Allen smashed 101 off 53 balls - eight sixes - in a 50-run demolition.
• January 4 vs Adelaide Strikers: Joel Paris took 2/6 in the first over of the surge to seal victory.

The Scorchers have multiple match-winners. Allen has hit a record 37 sixes this BBL season. Aaron Hardie has contributed 11 wickets while batting brilliantly. This is a team firing on all cylinders.

Sydney Sixers' 2025/2026: Smith or Bust

Moises Henriques' side bounced back from their Qualifier humiliation with a commanding 57-run win over Hobart Hurricanes in the Challenger. But there's a significant problem: Babar Azam has returned to Pakistan for international commitments and will not play in the Final.

• January 23 - Challenger vs Hurricanes: Won by 57 runs. Steven Smith anchored with 65 off 43 balls, supported by Joel Davies' all-round display.
• January 20 - Qualifier vs Scorchers: Lost by 48 runs. Collapsed from 63/3 to 99 all out chasing 148. Smith top-scored with 37 but found no support.
• January 18 vs Brisbane Heat: Won by 5 wickets. Smith (54) and Sam Curran (53*) led the chase, while Mitchell Starc took 4/35.

The Sixers have the best bowling average and strike rate in the competition - a portable advantage that kept them alive in the Challenger. But without Babar, their batting is dangerously thin. If Smith fails, who scores the runs?

Key Players to Watch

Head-to-Head Record

The Scorchers have won both meetings this season - and the Qualifier at this exact venue was comprehensive. The Sixers collapsed, with only Smith offering resistance. Beardman's short-ball plan worked perfectly, dismissing Smith with a 139kph bouncer that hurried onto him.

Venue and Conditions

Optus Stadium is a fortress for the Scorchers. The pace and bounce suit their bowling attack - Richardson, Beardman, Paris (if fit), and Hardie all extract movement. The Sixers were bowled out for 99 here five days ago. The pitch offers a balanced contest, but the Scorchers know these conditions intimately.

Why Perth Scorchers Are Favourites

Our Prediction

Perth Scorchers to win. The evidence is overwhelming. Home advantage, a 2-0 season record, the Sixers' Qualifier collapse still fresh in memory, and Babar's absence leaving Smith isolated. The Sixers have the bowling to stay competitive, and Smith can produce magic on any day - but asking him to carry the entire batting lineup against Beardman, Richardson, and company at Optus Stadium is a tall order. We make the Scorchers 65% favourites to claim their sixth BBL title.

Betting Value

The market has the Scorchers at 58.1% implied probability. We have them at 65%. That's a +6.9% edge - solid value for a match where the favourite has clear, verifiable advantages. The Sixers' bowling keeps them dangerous, and Smith is capable of anything, but the price adequately compensates for those risks. 1 unit on Perth Scorchers.