Khan Research Laboratories vs Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited Prediction - President's Cup One-Day 2025-26

Result: KRL won by 13 runs. KRL 255 all out (49.4 overs) vs SNGPL 242 all out (48.2 overs).

Pre-Match Probability: KRL 38% | SNGPL 62%

No Bet: Edge was below 2% threshold. Analysis only.

Match Summary

Waqar Ahmed's 94 off 115 balls anchored KRL's innings after a shaky start at 45/3. The top order had crumbled—but Waqar dug in. Saad Baig (77) joined him for a 148-run partnership that transformed the innings. KRL posted 255 despite Mohammad Salman's 6/42—a spell that should have been match-winning for SNGPL.

SNGPL's chase looked comfortable. 198/3 in the 37th over. Saad Khan (66) and Omair Bin Yousuf (57) were cruising with required rate under control. 58 needed from 78 balls with 7 wickets in hand. Then came the collapse that decided the semi-final. 7 wickets for 44 runs. Arshad Iqbal (5/43) found reverse swing and dismantled SNGPL's middle order. The lower order had no answer. From 198/3 to 242 all out. KRL into the President's Cup final.

Analysis Review

Validated: SNGPL's bowling quality. Mohammad Salman's 6/42 confirmed they had the attack to dominate any batting lineup. His spell kept SNGPL in the game despite KRL's recovery. The bowling assessment was correct—it was the batting that failed to close.

Validated: The match being a close contest. We gave SNGPL 62%—a clear favourite but not overwhelming. The game went down to the final 15 overs with both results possible. The probability gap was appropriate.

Overestimated: The H2H signal. KRL's 40 all out in the previous meeting was weighted too heavily. One collapse doesn't define a team's capability—especially in knockout cricket where approaches change between meetings. Teams adapt. KRL clearly adjusted their batting order and approach.

Underweighted: KRL's batting depth beyond the top order. Waqar Ahmed and Saad Baig weren't highlighted in pre-match research—both delivered when it mattered. Their 148-run partnership was the foundation for everything.

Betting Outcome

No bet placed. Edge was below 2% threshold—the SKIP decision was correct process. Domestic ODI cricket is high-variance, and the margin between these teams was always thin. At 62% confidence, SNGPL losing is within expected variance (38% happens). The lesson: one-sided H2H in domestic cricket can be misleading. Teams adjust between knockout meetings. No money lost, process validated.