ICC T20 World Cup 2026
Scotland vs Italy — Prediction Correct ✅
SCO Scotland
ITA Italy
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Our pre-match prediction 🎯 33/43 T20 WC predictions correctScotland won by 73 runs
We predicted Scotland at 59.3%
Seven months ago in Voorburg, Italy knocked Scotland out of the 2025 Europe Regional Final — Harry Manenti's five-wicket haul sealing a tense 12-run victory that propelled Italy towards their first-ever T20 World Cup. Scotland only reached India after Bangladesh's late withdrawal opened a spot via T20I rankings. Now these two meet again at Eden Gardens, and the dynamic has reversed. Scotland, despite losing to West Indies by 35 runs on this same ground two days ago, remain the clear market favourites. But Italy have already proved they can beat this Scottish side when it matters most. That qualifier victory — and the squad experience Italy bring through JJ Smuts, Wayne Madsen and Grant Stewart — makes this far more competitive than the odds suggest.
Team A Preview — Scotland
Scotland's campaign opened with a 35-run defeat to West Indies at this venue on February 7. Chasing 183, they were bowled out for 147, with captain Richie Berrington top-scoring with a combative 42 off 24 balls and Tom Bruce adding 35. The middle order collapsed under Romario Shepherd's devastating 5-20, a familiar vulnerability for Scotland in ICC events against stronger opposition.
The experience core remains formidable. Captain Richie Berrington brings 103 T20I caps and 2,377 runs at 31.27 with a strike rate of 131.25 — he's the anchor Scotland need if early wickets fall. Munsey is their X-factor opener: 82 T20Is, 2,321 runs at a strike rate of 144.07, with a highest score of 132. When Munsey fires, Scotland's total becomes competitive against anyone. Matthew Cross (84 T20Is, 1,397 runs) provides stability behind the stumps and through the middle overs.
The bowling attack is led by left-arm spinner Mark Watt, all-rounder Michael Leask, and the pace of Brad Wheal and Brad Currie. Brandon McMullen — who smashed 96 against Italy in their 2023 meeting — adds power in the middle order and useful medium pace. Scotland's depth is their strength: they've played 103 T20Is as a unit across various ICC qualifying campaigns, giving them genuine international experience that most associate nations lack.
Team B Preview — Italy
Italy are the tournament's romantic story — making their maiden appearance on cricket's biggest stage after a dramatic qualifying campaign where they edged Jersey on net run rate. Their squad is built on a fascinating mix of heritage-qualified professionals and homegrown Italian talent, captained by Wayne Madsen, a former South African hockey international who played 39 hockey caps before carving out a prolific county cricket career with Derbyshire.
The headline act is JJ Smuts, the South African all-rounder who qualified for Italy through ancestry. With 230 T20 matches across his career and 133 T20 wickets, Smuts brings a level of franchise cricket experience that most associate sides can only dream of. His slow left-arm spin and powerful lower-order batting give Italy a genuine multi-dimensional threat. Grant Stewart is equally vital — 473 T20I runs at a strike rate of 159.79 with 17 wickets makes him one of the most dangerous all-rounders at this level.
The real weapon, though, may be Harry Manenti. The 25-year-old Australian-Italian all-rounder has 34 T20I wickets at just 13.29 with an economy of 6.41. His 5/31 against Scotland in the qualifier was the difference. Manenti's right-arm medium pace extracts awkward bounce and movement, and he bowls with the confidence of someone who has played BBL cricket for the Adelaide Strikers.
Key Players to Watch
Munsey vs Manenti: Scotland's explosive opener against Italy's most dangerous bowler. Munsey's T20I strike rate of 144 makes him lethal in powerplays, but Manenti's 5/31 in their last meeting shows he has the skills to contain him. If Manenti gets Munsey early, Italy's chances improve dramatically.
Berrington vs Smuts: Scotland's captain averages 31.27 through the middle overs where Smuts will likely bowl his left-arm spin. Berrington is one of the best players of spin in associate cricket, but Smuts' experience — 133 T20 wickets across all competitions — makes this a chess match between two veterans.
McMullen vs Ali Hasan: McMullen smashed 96 off Italy in 2023 and is Scotland's most destructive power-hitter. Ali Hasan, Italy's specialist quick bowler, has 9 T20I wickets at 12.55 with an extraordinary economy of 4.91 — the most restrictive in the squad. If Hasan can keep McMullen quiet through the death overs, Italy control the run rate.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
These teams have met twice in T20Is, with the series level at 1-1. The contrast between those two meetings tells the story of Italy's rapid growth. In Edinburgh in 2023, Scotland piled up 245/2 — Ollie Hairs smashing an unbeaten 127 and McMullen adding 96 — before bowling Italy out for just 90. A 155-run demolition that suggested these teams were in different leagues.
Two years later, in the 2025 Europe Regional Final at Voorburg, Italy posted 167/6 with Emilio Gay's rapid 50 and Stewart's unbeaten 44 setting a competitive total. Scotland's chase, despite Munsey's 72 and Berrington's 46*, fell 12 runs short as Manenti's five-wicket haul sealed the upset. That result earned Italy their World Cup place — and gave them the psychological edge of knowing they can beat Scotland when it counts.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Eden Gardens, Kolkata — one of cricket's great amphitheatres, hosting its second T20 World Cup. In 12 T20Is here, teams bowling first have won 7 times (58%), with a chase success rate of 57.6%. The average first-innings T20I score is 142, though IPL 2025 saw that climb to 199 on flatter decks.
The pitch offers early assistance for pace bowlers — seam movement and extra bounce with the new ball — before settling into a good batting surface. Spinners get some turn as the match progresses. The toss is significant: historical data shows an 11.4% probability shift based on toss outcome, with fielding first the optimal choice.
☀️ Conditions: 28°C, sunny, 0% rain chance, minimal wind. A perfect day for cricket with no dew factor for this morning start.
Match Analysis
This match hinges on whether Italy can translate their qualifier form into a World Cup environment. The step up from European qualifiers to Eden Gardens — 68,000 seats, subcontinental conditions, a different class of scrutiny — is enormous. But Italy's squad has more subcontinental experience than you might expect: Smuts has played in the SA20 and CPL, Madsen in the PSL, BPL and The Hundred, Stewart in English county cricket. These aren't wide-eyed debutants overwhelmed by the occasion.
Scotland's biggest concern is their batting fragility. Being bowled out for 147 chasing 183 against West Indies exposed a familiar pattern — once the top order falls, the middle order struggles to rebuild under pressure. If Manenti and Hasan can restrict Scotland's powerplay scoring and pick up early wickets, the same collapse could easily happen again. Italy's bowling attack, led by Manenti's 34 T20I wickets, is genuinely competitive.
Where Scotland hold the advantage is depth and consistency. They have six batters who average above 20 in T20Is, compared to Italy's three. Their bowling is more varied — Watt's left-arm spin, Leask's off-spin, Wheal and Currie's pace — giving them options for every phase. And crucially, Scotland have the Eden Gardens experience from their West Indies match. They know these conditions now. Italy are walking in cold.
Our Verdict
Scotland should win this, but not as comfortably as the bookmakers suggest. Our analysis gives Scotland a 59% probability — slightly below the market's implied 64%. Italy have beaten Scotland before, they have genuine match-winners in Manenti, Stewart and Smuts, and the toss could be decisive at a venue where fielding first wins 58% of the time. We predict Scotland to win, but back Italy if you can find odds above 2.45 — there's a sliver of value on the team that literally qualified by beating Scotland.
📊 Odds Analysis
| Bookmaker / Metric | Scotland | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Average Market Odds | 1.56 | 2.40 |
| Implied Market Probability | 64.1% | 41.7% |
| Our Estimated Probability | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| Fair Odds | 1.69 | 2.46 |
The market prices Scotland as a strong favourite at ~1.56, but our proprietary analysis — incorporating historical ratings, venue analytics, form, squad strength and market data — puts them at 59.3%. The 5-point gap between market and model suggests the market may be slightly overvaluing Scotland after Italy's underwhelming warm-up results. Back Italy if odds exceed 2.46 — you're getting fair value on a side that has already beaten Scotland in a high-stakes qualifier. Scotland backers should look for odds above 1.69.
Odds sourced from 42 bookmakers via OddsPortal · Last updated: February 9, 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Scotland vs Italy in the T20 World Cup 2026?
Scotland are predicted to win with a 59% probability. While they have more T20I experience (103 matches for captain Berrington alone) and greater squad depth, Italy's qualifier victory over Scotland in 2025 proves they can compete.
What is the head-to-head record between Scotland and Italy in T20Is?
Scotland and Italy have played two T20Is, with the series level at 1-1. Scotland won the first meeting by 155 runs in Edinburgh (2023), while Italy won the second by 12 runs in the 2025 Europe Regional Final at Voorburg — the match that clinched Italy's World Cup qualification.
Who are Italy's key players at the T20 World Cup?
Harry Manenti (34 T20I wickets at 13.29) is Italy's strike bowler, while Grant Stewart (473 T20I runs at SR 159.79, 17 wickets) provides devastating all-round ability. Captain Wayne Madsen and JJ Smuts bring extensive franchise cricket experience from leagues including the PSL, SA20, CPL and The Hundred.
What is the Eden Gardens pitch like for T20 matches?
Eden Gardens offers early pace and bounce for fast bowlers before settling into a good batting surface. In 12 T20Is, the average first-innings score is 142, and teams bowling first have won 58% of matches. The toss is significant — fielding first is the optimal choice at this venue.
Is this Italy's first T20 World Cup appearance?
Yes, this is Italy's maiden T20 World Cup. They qualified through the 2025 Europe Regional Final, finishing level on points with Jersey but advancing on net run rate. Their squad features heritage-qualified professionals like JJ Smuts (South Africa), Wayne Madsen (South Africa/Derbyshire) and Ben Manenti (Australia/Adelaide Strikers).
For more T20 World Cup analysis, see our West Indies vs Scotland prediction from the opening round, our England vs Nepal prediction, and the Afghanistan vs New Zealand preview for more Group C context.
