SCO Scotland
ITA Italy
T20 World Cup 2026
Scotland vs Italy Match Prediction
Last updated: 6 February 2026
🏏 Prediction Summary
We predict Italy to win this encounter with a confidence level of 70%. Back Italy if odds are above 1.85.
As the cricketing world turns its gaze towards the iconic Eden Gardens in Kolkata, we prepare for what promises to be an intriguing T20I clash between Scotland and Italy on February 9, 2026. This fixture pits two nations with contrasting recent fortunes against each other, with Italy riding a wave of superior form and a recent head-to-head victory, while Scotland seeks to reverse its fortunes. Our comprehensive analysis, rooted deeply in verified Cricsheet data, delves into team strengths, individual performances, and historical context to bring you the most authoritative prediction for this exciting contest.
Scotland Preview
Scotland enters this contest with a T20I record that suggests inconsistency since January 2024. From 20 matches played, they have secured 8 wins against 11 losses, translating to a win percentage of 40%. Their recent form includes two wins and three losses in their last five outings. Notably, these include consecutive losses to Jersey (2025-07-11) and Italy (2025-07-09), followed by a win against Netherlands (2025-07-08). This mixed bag highlights a team capable of flashes of brilliance but struggling for sustained dominance.
From a batting perspective, Scotland possesses formidable individual talents. Leading their charge is HG Munsey, a prolific scorer with 626 runs from 19 innings at an impressive strike rate of 140.04. He is crucial for quick starts and setting competitive totals. Following him is BJ McMullen, with 417 runs in 16 innings at a strong strike rate of 137.17, providing an aggressive middle-order option. MH Cross contributes 348 runs in 17 innings at a strike rate of 113.73, offering stability. The experienced RD Berrington has accumulated 303 runs in 16 innings at a strike rate of 116.54, while MA Leask adds 292 runs in 18 innings with a strike rate of 117.27, showcasing their batting depth.
With the ball, Scotland relies on a blend of wicket-takers and economical options. MRJ Watt leads their wicket-taking charts with 20 wickets from 18 innings (economy 7.25). CN Greaves has picked up 16 wickets in 14 innings (economy 7.78). A standout performer in terms of control is BJ Currie, who has claimed 16 wickets in just 11 innings with an excellent economy rate of 6.29, making him a crucial asset. SM Sharif has 13 wickets in 12 innings, though his economy rate of 8.25 suggests he can be expensive. All-rounder MA Leask also contributes with 13 wickets in 15 innings at an economy of 6.91. Scotland's challenge will be to harness these individual performances into a cohesive team effort.
Italy Preview
Italy arrives at Eden Gardens with a significantly stronger recent T20I record, boasting a highly impressive win percentage of 73% since January 2024. From 11 matches played, they have secured 8 victories against just 3 losses, indicating a team in excellent rhythm and confidence. Their recent results show a competitive edge, including a win against Ireland (2026-01-26), though this was preceded by two losses to Ireland. Crucially, they registered a significant victory against Scotland on July 9, 2025, winning by 12 runs, which will undoubtedly boost their morale for this rematch.
Italy's batting lineup features several dynamic players. JA Burns leads their scoring with 271 runs in 8 innings at a healthy strike rate of 136.87, providing a solid foundation. HJ Manenti, an all-rounder, has contributed 259 runs in 10 innings at a strike rate of 106.15. The most explosive batter in their ranks is undoubtedly J Mosca, who has amassed 251 runs in 11 innings at an exceptional strike rate of 160.9, making him a genuine threat. AJ Mosca supports with 219 runs in 9 innings at a strike rate of 120.33, while G Stewart, despite playing fewer innings (5), has scored 113 runs at an impressive strike rate of 146.75, showcasing his destructive potential. Italy's batting unit appears well-balanced, with a mix of anchors and aggressive hitters.
The Italian bowling attack is characterized by its efficiency and wicket-taking ability. CJPF Kalugamage is their leading wicket-taker with 16 wickets in 10 innings, maintaining an excellent economy rate of 6.36. All-rounder HJ Manenti also shines with the ball, picking up 15 wickets in 11 innings at a tight economy of 6.59. TJ Draca has chipped in with 11 wickets in 9 innings, keeping a good economy rate of 6.58. Jaspreet Singh has 9 wickets in 9 innings with an impressive economy of 6.38, while S di Bartolomeo, despite playing only 4 innings, has taken 7 wickets at a remarkable economy rate of 5.03. Italy's bowlers collectively demonstrate a strong ability to contain runs and pick up crucial wickets.
Key Players to Watch
In a contest of this magnitude, individual brilliance often dictates the outcome. Here are the players we believe will have a significant impact:
- For Scotland:
- HG Munsey: Scotland's batting lynchpin, with 626 runs in 19 innings at a strike rate of 140.04, crucial for quick starts and setting competitive totals.
- BJ McMullen: An aggressive middle-order batter, his 417 runs in 16 innings at a strike rate of 137.17 provide vital acceleration.
- BJ Currie: A key bowler, his 16 wickets in 11 innings with an excellent economy rate of 6.29 will be indispensable for restricting runs and taking wickets.
- For Italy:
- J Mosca: Italy's most explosive batter, 251 runs in 11 innings at an astounding strike rate of 160.9 can rapidly shift game momentum.
- JA Burns: Provides stability and firepower, with 271 runs in 8 innings at a strike rate of 136.87, essential for building partnerships.
- CJPF Kalugamage: The leading wicket-taker with 16 wickets in 10 innings and a superb economy rate of 6.36, critical for breaking partnerships.
- HJ Manenti: A vital all-rounder, contributing 259 runs and 15 wickets (economy 6.59) across 10-11 innings, offering balance and impact in both departments.
Head-to-Head Record
The historical head-to-head record between Scotland and Italy in T20 Internationals reveals an interesting dynamic over just two meetings. Their most recent encounter, on July 9, 2025, saw Italy emerge victorious by 12 runs at Sportpark Westvliet, Voorburg, The Hague. This recent result provides Italy with a significant psychological advantage heading into this fixture. However, the first-ever meeting, on July 24, 2023, witnessed a dominant performance from Scotland, who won by a substantial margin of 155 runs at Grange Cricket Club Ground, Raeburn Place, Edinburgh. While the overall record stands at one win apiece, the recency of Italy's victory cannot be overlooked, suggesting an upward trend in their competitive rivalry.
Venue, Conditions & Toss
The match is set to be played at the legendary Eden Gardens in Kolkata, a venue steeped in cricketing history. Our data from 11 T20I matches played at this ground provides valuable insights. The average 1st innings score at Eden Gardens is 154, while the average 2nd innings score drops slightly to 134. This suggests that while scores in the mid-150s are competitive, chasing can be challenging if the pitch slows down. However, the chase success rate stands at 55%, indicating that teams batting second have a slight edge in winning matches.
An overwhelming 64% of captains winning the toss at Eden Gardens have elected to field first, a clear preference that aligns with the slightly higher chase success rate. This trend implies that teams are confident in their ability to restrict the opposition and then chase under the lights. The highest score recorded at this venue is 201, demonstrating that big totals are achievable, while the lowest score is 109, indicating potential for collapses. Given these statistics, we anticipate the toss winner will opt to bowl first, looking to exploit any early moisture or swing, and then chase a target that, on average, falls in the 150-range. Teams will need to assess the pitch carefully, as batting first and setting a challenging total around 160-170 could still prove difficult to chase given the average 2nd innings score.
Match Analysis
Our detailed analysis of the available data highlights several key factors that will likely influence the outcome:
- Recent Form and Momentum: Italy holds a significant advantage in recent form. Their impressive 73% win rate from 11 matches since January 2024 stands in stark contrast to Scotland's 40% win rate from 20 matches. Furthermore, Italy's recent 12-run victory over Scotland on July 9, 2025, provides them with crucial momentum and psychological superiority.
- Batting Dynamics: Scotland boasts higher individual run volumes in HG Munsey (626 runs) and BJ McMullen (417 runs). However, Italy's batting unit features exceptional strike rates from J Mosca (160.9) and G Stewart (146.75). This explosiveness could be a game-changer, especially on an Eden Gardens pitch that can reward aggressive stroke play.
- Bowling Economy and Control: Italy's bowling attack appears more economical on average. Key bowlers like CJPF Kalugamage (econ 6.36), HJ Manenti (econ 6.59), Jaspreet Singh (econ 6.38), and S di Bartolomeo (econ 5.03) consistently maintain tight lines. While Scotland has BJ Currie with an excellent economy of 6.29, their other prominent bowlers like MRJ Watt (econ 7.25) and SM Sharif (econ 8.25) tend to be more expensive. Controlling runs will be paramount at this venue.
- Venue Characteristics and Toss Impact: Eden Gardens has shown a slight preference for chasing, with a 55% chase success rate and 64% of toss winners opting to field. The average 1st innings score of 154 suggests that restrictive bowling, like Italy's, followed by a chase, could be the winning formula.
Our Verdict
After a thorough examination of all available data points, including recent form, individual player statistics, head-to-head history, and venue characteristics, our analysis points towards Italy as the stronger contender in this fixture. Their superior overall win percentage since January 2024 (73% vs. Scotland's 40%), coupled with their recent 12-run victory against Scotland, provides a compelling narrative of a team in ascendancy. Italy's bowling attack demonstrates better economy rates collectively, which will be a significant advantage at Eden Gardens where containing runs is crucial. While Scotland possesses individual batting prowess in HG Munsey and BJ McMullen, their inconsistent team results and slightly more expensive bowling unit could be their undoing against a confident Italian side. We anticipate Italy to leverage their momentum and balanced team performance to secure another victory.
Odds Analysis
Based on our comprehensive statistical breakdown and assessment of team strengths, Italy emerges as the clear favourite for this match. Their recent form, head-to-head advantage, and balanced team dynamics, particularly in bowling economy, give them a distinct edge. For those looking to find value in the market, we recommend considering a bet on Italy. We suggest you Back Italy if odds are above 1.85. This threshold offers a reasonable return for what we perceive to be a highly probable outcome, aligning with our confidence in Italy's ability to secure a win at Eden Gardens.
FAQ
- What is Scotland's recent T20I form?
Scotland's recent T20I form since January 2024 shows they have won 8 out of 20 matches, resulting in a 40% win rate. In their last five matches, they have secured 2 wins and suffered 3 losses, including a defeat to Italy on July 9, 2025. - Who are Italy's key batsmen to watch in this match?
Italy's key batsmen include J Mosca, who has scored 251 runs in 11 innings at an exceptional strike rate of 160.9, and JA Burns, who has contributed 271 runs in 8 innings at a strike rate of 136.87. G Stewart (113 runs in 5 innings @ SR 146.75) is also an explosive player. - What does the Eden Gardens pitch typically favour?
At Eden Gardens, the average 1st innings score is 154, and the average 2nd innings score is 134. With a 55% chase success rate and 64% of toss winners electing to field, the venue slightly favours teams batting second. - What was the result of the most recent Scotland vs Italy T20I encounter?
The most recent T20I between Scotland and Italy took place on July 9, 2025, at Sportpark Westvliet, Voorburg, The Hague. Italy won that match by 12 runs, giving them a recent psychological edge over Scotland.
