Northern Cape vs Border Toss Prediction

CSA T20 Challenge 2026 · Pool A · Saturday, 26 September 2026 · 11:00 UTC (13:00 local) · Diamond Oval, Kimberley

Toss prediction from ground record and start time

What will the toss winner choose?

Bowl first · 50% field-first

Close call, leaning bowl first — weighing this ground's toss record and the start time, our model puts the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 50%.

Based on: Ground record and start time
Tosses at this ground: 4
Chose to field: 25.0%
Period: 2009–2010

Graded automatically once the toss is published. The result is recorded on this page either way.

What we looked at

Bowl first 50% Bat first 50%

Captains have batted first here. 3 of 4 toss winners have batted at Diamond Oval in 2009–2010 (75%).(points to batting first)
No dew. Daytime start (13:00 local): conditions hold for both innings.(points to batting first)
Rain around. A shortened game hands the chasing side a revised target (1.1 mm forecast in the first hour).(points to bowling first)
Our call: bowl first — 50%. Weighs this ground's toss record and the start time. Graded against the real toss and shown on our public ledger.(points to bowling first)

Cyan dots point to bowling first, amber to batting first, grey to neither.

Last 4 tosses at Diamond Oval

Date	Toss winner	Chose	Match winner	Chased?
2010-10-10	South Africa	Bat	South Africa	No
2009-05-11	Deccan Chargers	Bat	Deccan Chargers	No
2009-05-09	Rajasthan Royals	Bat	Chennai Super Kings	Yes
2009-05-09	Kings XI Punjab	Field	Kings XI Punjab	Yes

Men's T20 matches only, newest first, from ball-by-ball records.

What each side tends to do

Neither side has won a toss in our men's T20 data yet, so this call weighs this ground's toss record and the start time.

Does the toss matter at Diamond Oval?

In 4 decided men's T20 matches here, the side batting second won 2 (50%).

Start: 11:00 UTC · 13:00 local time (day match).

Forecast at the start: 18°C · humidity 82% · overcast · rain

Weather from MET Norway (CC BY 4.0), fetched 2026-09-24 12:07 UTC. Shown for context; the forecast is not part of the number.

How this NCAPE vs BOR toss prediction is made

We do not predict who wins the coin — that is 50/50. We predict what the winner will choose. We weigh how often captains at this ground have chosen to field, what each side has chosen when it won the toss (recent seasons count most), and the start time — an evening start brings dew, which pushes captains to bowl first. Each is weighed against the men's T20 average (61%) so that a handful of matches can never produce an extreme number. For this match we had this ground's toss record and the start time.

A fair word on what this is and is not: it is a probability, not a certainty. A call near 50% means the choice really is close. Every call here is checked in public once the toss decision is published.

Full method, dew and captaincy context: the data behind our toss calls.

NCAPE vs BOR toss prediction FAQ

What is the NCAPE vs BOR toss prediction?

Close call, leaning bowl first — weighing this ground's toss record and the start time, our model puts the chance that the toss winner bowls first at 50%. We predict the decision, not the coin: whoever wins the toss, this is what we expect them to do.

Does winning the toss matter at Diamond Oval?

In 4 decided men's T20 matches at Diamond Oval in our data, the side batting second won 2 (50%). The toss sets which side gets that choice; it does not decide the match.

How is this toss prediction made?

We weigh three things: how often captains at this ground have chosen to field, what each side has chosen when it won the toss (recent seasons count most), and the start time — an evening start brings dew, which pushes captains to bowl first. Each is weighed against the men's T20 average (61%) so that a small sample cannot produce an extreme number. The result is added after the toss and stays on this page.

What happened at the toss?

The toss has not happened yet. When it has, the result is recorded here against the call above.

More toss predictions

Last updated: 2026-09-24. Published 2026-09-24.

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