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New Zealand vs South Africa Toss Prediction (NZ vs SA)

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Sunday, 22 March 2026 · 05:30 IST · Sky Stadium, Wellington · STON2

Toss prediction page launched 7 May 2026. The pre-toss call summarised here was originally published in our New Zealand vs South Africa match preview on 20 March 2026.

What did the toss winner choose?

✗ Decision missed
Our predicted decision
field first
From the article: "Field first. Sky Stadium has a 61% chase win rate in T20Is, with 14 of 23 completed innings won by the batting-second team."
What happened
South Africa elected to bat
Stamped 7 May, 20:05 IST · live data feed
Match outcome
New Zealand won the match ✗ match-winner prediction wrong

🏟️ What the toss means at Sky Stadium, Wellington

Toss impact: Moderate bat-first ground — chases succeed only 48% of the time here

The toss went South Africa's way — they chose to bat, so New Zealand chase. In this branch our model makes New Zealand 54.0% — fair odds 1.85 (SA 2.17) against a pre-toss baseline of 55.0%.

How we made this New Zealand vs South Africa toss prediction

We do not predict who wins the coin flip itself; that is genuinely 50/50. We predict what the toss winner will choose to do. For this match, our pre-toss call was made in the article body before the toss happened. The result above shows whether the captain actually followed our predicted decision.

For the full methodology — venue toss patterns, dew, and captaincy psychology — see our toss prediction approach.

Full match prediction

Beyond the toss, we publish a complete probability model for NZ vs SA: win probability, fair odds, key matchups, and a scenario map.

Read full New Zealand vs South Africa prediction →

NZ vs SA toss prediction FAQ

Who won the NZ vs SA toss?

South Africa won the NZ vs SA toss and chose to bat first.

What did the toss winner choose in NZ vs SA?

South Africa chose to bat first. Our pre-toss call was field first — the captain went the other way.

How does the toss affect the NZ vs SA match odds?

Meaningfully. Sky Stadium, Wellington favours batting first (chases succeed only 48% of the time here), so our model shifts the match win probability by about 1 percentage points depending on which side ends up chasing. A pre-toss match price averages both branches, so the toss result itself can create or kill value on the match market.

More toss predictions

All toss predictions → · Full prediction archive →