NEP Nepal
ITA Italy
ICC T20 World Cup 2026
Nepal vs Italy Match Prediction
Last updated: 9 February 2026
Prediction Summary — Nepal vs Italy
This is a match between two teams who know their World Cup dreams are already on the line. Nepal and Italy both lost their Group C openers and face each other in a contest that is effectively an elimination match — the loser almost certainly exits the tournament. But the contrasting manner of those defeats tells the story of this matchup: Nepal pushed the world's number-one T20I side to the final ball before falling four runs short, while Italy were demolished by 73 runs against Scotland and lost their captain Wayne Madsen to a dislocated shoulder in the process.
Team A Preview — Nepal
Nepal's near-miss against England was arguably the performance of the tournament so far. Chasing 185 at the Wankhede Stadium, Nepal's batters attacked from the start and reached 180/6 — falling agonisingly short by just four runs. It was a statement performance that announced Nepal as genuine competitors, not mere participants. Captain Rohit Paudel will demand the same fearless approach against Italy.
Nepal's batting firepower is built around three outstanding T20I performers. Dipendra Singh Airee is the heartbeat of the middle order — his 2,000 runs and 60 wickets across 91 T20I matches make him one of the most impactful all-rounders outside the Test-playing nations. Kushal Bhurtel anchors the top of the order with 1,836 runs in 71 T20Is at a strike rate of 127.85, while Aasif Sheikh provides stability with 1,646 runs across 69 matches behind the stumps.
The bowling attack is led by Sandeep Lamichhane, Nepal's world-renowned leg-spinner whose variations have troubled batters across T20 leagues worldwide. Sompal Kami and Karan KC provide pace options, while Airee's off-spin gives Paudel a versatile sixth bowling option. Nepal's 4-match winning streak before the England defeat (including victories over UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Samoa in qualifiers) demonstrates their ability to dominate associate-level opposition.
Team B Preview — Italy
Italy's historic World Cup debut turned into a nightmare. Scotland posted a formidable total and Italy crumbled, bowled out 73 runs short. More damaging than the scoreline was the loss of captain Wayne Madsen, who dislocated his left shoulder while fielding in just the fourth over. The 42-year-old Derbyshire veteran — Italy's most experienced batter with 205 runs at a strike rate of 132.25 in T20Is — is now doubtful for the remainder of the league stage, with coach John Davison suggesting he may stay with the squad in a coaching capacity only.
Without Madsen, Italy's batting responsibility falls heavily on Grant Stewart (473 runs at a strike rate of 159.79 in T20Is for the former Kent all-rounder), Marcus Campopiano (475 runs at an average of 31.66), and Harry Manenti, who took over the captaincy against Scotland. Former South African all-rounder JJ Smuts adds experience but has struggled for consistency, averaging just 13.18 in T20Is.
Italy's bowling has more promise. Ali Hasan has been remarkably economical with 9 wickets at an economy of 4.91, while Harry Manenti's medium-pace all-round ability (34 wickets at 6.41) gives them a genuine wicket-taking option. Benjamin Manenti offers additional variety. However, against Nepal's proven T20I batting lineup, Italy's bowling will need to exceed their Scotland performance significantly.
Key Players to Watch
Dipendra Singh Airee vs Italy's bowling: Airee's dual threat — 2,000 runs and 60 wickets in T20Is — makes him the most dangerous player on either side. If he bats through the middle overs and adds wickets with his off-spin, Nepal should control this match comfortably.
Sandeep Lamichhane vs Italy's middle order: Lamichhane's leg-spin has troubled top-order batters worldwide. Against a middle order that collapsed for 73 runs less than Scotland's score, his variations could be devastating. Italy's ability to read his googly will be critical.
Grant Stewart vs Nepal's pace attack: Stewart's strike rate of 159.79 is exceptional for associate cricket. If he can launch against Nepal's seamers, he represents Italy's best chance of posting or chasing a competitive total. He'll need support from Campopiano at the other end.
Kushal Bhurtel vs Ali Hasan: Bhurtel's 1,836 T20I runs against Hasan's economy rate of 4.91 — a battle between Nepal's most prolific run-scorer and Italy's most restrictive bowler. The powerplay could be decided by this contest.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Nepal and Italy have never played each other in T20I cricket. This is a historic first meeting between two nations at vastly different stages of their cricketing development. Nepal have been an ICC Associate Member since 1996 and have played 91+ T20I matches, building a deep squad of experienced internationals. Italy, by contrast, qualified for their first-ever World Cup and have just 25 T20Is to their name. The gulf in experience — Nepal's collective 5,000+ T20I runs across their top five batters versus Italy's relative inexperience — is the defining factor in this matchup.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai — Capacity: 33,000. One of India's most iconic cricket grounds, the Wankhede produced a thriller when England narrowly beat Nepal here on February 8. The surface has been good for batting with enough assistance for bowlers to stay interested.
- Pitch: A true batting wicket that rewards strokemakers. Nepal scored 180/6 here in their last match — evidence that run-scoring is very achievable. Spin should play a role in the middle overs.
- Weather: Mumbai in February — warm and humid, temperatures around 28-30°C. Dew could be a factor under lights in the second innings.
- Toss: With dew likely to make batting easier in the second innings, the toss winner will probably choose to field first. Nepal's chasing pedigree from the England match suggests they'll be comfortable either way.
Match Analysis
The Madsen injury transforms this contest. Italy's best batter, captain, and most experienced campaigner is almost certainly absent — a blow that cannot be overstated for a squad making their World Cup debut. Without his 132+ strike rate and tactical leadership, Italy must rely on Stewart and Campopiano to carry the batting, with Manenti stepping up as leader. The psychological impact of a 73-run defeat followed by their captain's injury could weigh heavily.
Nepal, conversely, will arrive with their confidence sky-high. Coming within four runs of beating the world's number-one side is the kind of performance that galvanises a squad. Airee, Bhurtel, and Lamichhane are all match-winners in their own right — and against a weakened Italy bowling attack, at least one of them is likely to produce a defining performance. Nepal's T20I experience advantage is vast: their top five batters have collectively played over 300 T20I innings, compared to Italy's limited exposure.
For Italy, the path to victory is narrow but not impossible. If Stewart bats at his destructive best and their bowling — particularly Hasan's death-overs economy — can restrict Nepal's big hitters, an upset is conceivable. But realistically, this is a match Nepal are expected to dominate, particularly given Italy's depleted leadership and shattered confidence. Earlier in Group C action, England face West Indies in a heavyweight clash — the results of both matches will shape the knockout-stage picture.
Our Verdict
Our analysis gives Nepal a 70.9% probability of winning. The combination of vastly superior T20I experience, the Madsen injury blow to Italy, and Nepal's confidence from nearly upsetting England makes this a clear prediction. Italy's World Cup debut has been brutal so far — a 73-run loss and their captain sidelined — and the task of beating a Nepal side with proven match-winners like Airee and Lamichhane looks beyond them. For more predictions, see our complete T20 World Cup coverage.
📊 Odds Analysis
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nepal | 70.9% | 76.0% | 1.44 | 1.41 |
| Italy | 29.1% | 31.0% | 3.75 | 3.44 |
Thin value on Nepal at William Hill only. Most bookmakers have Nepal at 1.28-1.36, shorter than our fair odds of 1.41 — no edge there. But William Hill's 1.44 offers a slim 2.1% edge. Italy at 3.75 (Paddy Power) present a 9.0% edge over fair odds of 3.44 — attractive on paper, but backing a demoralised side that just lost by 73 runs without their captain is a high-risk play.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Nepal vs Italy at the T20 World Cup 2026?
Our analysis gives Nepal a 70.9% probability of winning. Their vastly superior T20I experience, proven match-winners in Airee and Lamichhane, and confidence from nearly beating England make them clear favourites over an Italy side reeling from a 73-run loss and the injury to captain Wayne Madsen.
Is Wayne Madsen playing for Italy against Nepal?
Wayne Madsen is doubtful. The Italy captain dislocated his left shoulder while fielding in the fourth over against Scotland on February 9. Coach John Davison indicated he may remain with the squad in a coaching role only. Harry Manenti is expected to captain Italy in his absence.
Have Nepal and Italy played each other before?
No. This is the first-ever T20I meeting between Nepal and Italy. Nepal have played 91+ T20I matches, while Italy have just 25 — a significant experience gap that favours Nepal heavily.
What venue is Nepal vs Italy at?
The match is at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai, starting at 09:30 UTC on February 12, 2026 (3:00 PM India time). This is the same venue where Nepal scored 180/6 against England on February 8.
What happens if both teams lose this match?
Both teams have already lost their opening matches. The loser of this contest will have zero points from two games and will almost certainly be eliminated from Super Eight contention. This is effectively an elimination match for both sides.
