Nepal vs Italy Toss Prediction (NEP vs ITA)

Thursday, 12 February 2026 · 15:00 IST · Wankhede Stadium · T20 WC

Last updated: 7 May 2026

Toss prediction page launched 7 May 2026. The pre-toss call summarised here was originally published in our Nepal vs Italy match preview on 6 February 2026.

What did the toss winner choose?

✓ Decision called

Our predicted decision

field first

From the article: "With dew likely to make batting easier in the second innings, the toss winner will probably choose to field first."

What happened

Italy elected to field

Stamped 7 May, 20:01 IST · live data feed

Match outcome

Nepal won the match ✗ match-winner prediction wrong

🏟️ What the toss means at Wankhede Stadium

Toss impact: Moderate chase-friendly ground — teams batting second win 54% here

The toss went Italy's way — they chose to field, so Italy chase. In this branch our model makes Nepal 66.9% — fair odds 1.49 (ITA 3.02) against a pre-toss baseline of 70.9%.

How we made this Nepal vs Italy toss prediction

We do not predict who wins the coin flip itself; that is genuinely 50/50. We predict what the toss winner will choose to do. For this match, our pre-toss call was made in the article body before the toss happened. The result above shows whether the captain actually followed our predicted decision.

For the full methodology — venue toss patterns, dew, and captaincy psychology — see how the toss call is built.

Full match prediction

Beyond the toss, we publish a complete probability model for NEP vs ITA: win probability, fair odds, key matchups, and a scenario map.

Read full Nepal vs Italy prediction →

NEP vs ITA toss prediction FAQ

Who won the NEP vs ITA toss?

Italy won the NEP vs ITA toss and chose to field first.

What did the toss winner choose in NEP vs ITA?

Italy chose to field first. Our pre-toss call was field first — the captain did what we predicted.

How does the toss affect the NEP vs ITA match odds?

Meaningfully. Wankhede Stadium favours chasing (teams batting second win 54% here), so our model shifts the match win probability by about 4 percentage points depending on which side ends up chasing — with evening dew adding to the chase advantage under lights. A pre-toss match price averages both branches, so the toss result itself can create or kill value on the match market.

More toss predictions

All toss predictions → · Full prediction archive →