Who Will Win T20 World Cup 2026? Betting Odds, Predictions & Value Bets
Last updated: 20 February 2026 · Live tournament update
The tournament is live. Our pre-tournament calls are being validated.
We said West Indies at 21.00 were the best value bet. They are 2-0, including a 30-run demolition of England, with Romario Shepherd taking 5/20 and a hat-trick. Odds have shortened to ~17.00 — still offering +6% edge. We said New Zealand at 17.00 were underrated. They are 2-0, Tim Seifert has 154 runs and is the tournament’s leading scorer. Now ~13.00 with +3% edge. Both calls vindicated.
We also said Afghanistan at 29.00 were a dark horse. They are 0-2 and virtually eliminated. We were wrong. We own it.
India remain favourites at ~2.50 but are now even more overpriced than before. Our model gives them 34% — the market gives them 40%. That is -6% negative edge. England at 11% implied probability might not even qualify for the Super 8.
The Tournament So Far: 25 Matches, 8 Upsets
The group stage is more than halfway complete. Here is what has happened — and what it means for your outright bets.
Group Standings After Round 2
| Team | M | W | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇳 India Q | 4 | 4 | 8 | +3.050 |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan Q | 4 | 3 | 6 | +0.932 |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 4 | 2 | 4 | +0.787 |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 4 | 1 | 2 | −1.312 |
| 🇳🇦 Namibia | 4 | 0 | 0 | −2.443 |
| Team | M | W | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | 3 | 3 | 6 | +1.984 |
| 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | 4 | 3 | 6 | +2.625 |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1.100 |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1.825 |
| 🇴🇲 Oman | 3 | 0 | 0 | −5.306 |
| Team | M | W | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌴 West Indies | 3 | 3 | 6 | +1.800 |
| 🏴 England | 3 | 2 | 4 | +0.150 |
| 🏴 Scotland | 3 | 1 | 2 | −0.050 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 3 | 1 | 2 | −0.700 |
| 🇳🇵 Nepal | 2 | 0 | 0 | −1.854 |
| Team | M | W | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 3 | 3 | 6 | +2.125 |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 3 | 2 | 4 | +0.701 |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | 2 | 1 | 2 | −1.030 |
| 🇦🇫 Afghanistan | 4 | 2 | 4 | +0.125 |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 3 | 0 | 0 | −2.100 |
Key Results That Changed the Odds
💥 Sri Lanka 184/2 beat Australia 181 (8 wickets) — Feb 16
AUSTRALIA ELIMINATED. Pathum Nissanka's century (107*) sealed Australia's fate. Sri Lanka now 3-0 with 6 points, guaranteed Super 8s. Australia 1-2 and can't qualify. Biggest overnight shock.
🔥 Zimbabwe 169/2 beat Australia 146 all out (23 runs) — Feb 13
Brian Bennett 64* and Blessing Muzarabani 4/17 stunned the 2021 champions. Australia's second T20 WC loss to Zimbabwe. Their Super 8 spot is now in serious jeopardy.
🔥 West Indies 196/6 beat England 166 (30 runs) — Feb 11
Shimron Hetmyer's power hitting and WI's bowling depth exposed England. Combined with Shepherd's 5/20 hat-trick vs Scotland, WI are the most complete team after India.
🔥 Sri Lanka 225/5 beat Oman 120/9 (105 runs) — Feb 12
Tournament-high 225/5. Dasun Shanaka hit the fastest T20I fifty (19 balls, five sixes). Kusal Mendis 61, Pavan Rathnayake 60. Statement performance from the co-hosts.
⚡ South Africa 187/6 tied Afghanistan 187 — SA won double Super Over — Feb 11
The most dramatic match of the tournament. Afghanistan fought hard but are now 0-2. SA showed resilience under pressure — a trait that wins knockout cricket.
Our Track Record: Why You Should Listen
20/24
Match Predictions Correct
83.3%
Accuracy Rate
Our AI model has predicted 20 of 24 T20 World Cup 2026 matches correctly. We also called West Indies and New Zealand as pre-tournament value bets — both are 2-0 and odds have shortened. See all our match predictions here.
How Our Predictions Have Shifted
Predictions are not set in stone. Here is exactly how our model and recommendations have evolved as the tournament progresses — and why.
| Team | Jan 9 | Feb 14 | Shift | Why It Changed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌴 West Indies | 9% @ 21.00 | 12% @ 17.00 | ↑ +3% | 2-0, Shepherd 5/20 hat-trick, 30-run win over England. Most complete team after India. |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 8% @ 17.00 | 11% @ 13.00 | ↑ +3% | 2-0, Seifert 154 runs (tournament leader), 10-wicket win vs UAE. Dominant start. |
| 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | 3% @ 51.00 | 6% @ 29.00 | ↑ +3% | 2-0, 225/5 (tournament high), +3.125 NRR (best). Replaced AFG as our dark horse. |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 12% @ 6.50 | 14% @ 6.50 | ↑ +2% | 2-0, survived double Super Over vs AFG. Resilience under pressure boosts knockout rating. |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan | 6% @ 17.70 | 7% @ 11.00 | ↑ +1% | 2-0, solid in Sri Lanka. Slight upgrade but market moved faster — now overpriced. |
| 🇮🇳 India | 35% @ 2.67 | 34% @ 2.50 | ↓ −1% | 2-0 and dominant, but other teams impressed too. Edge worsened: market moved from -2.5% to -6%. |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 16% @ 5.50 | 8% @ 9.00 | ↓ −8% | Lost to Zimbabwe. Cummins back issues. May not make Super 8. Biggest downgrade. |
| 🏴 England | 8% @ 7.00 | 4% @ 9.00 | ↓ −4% | 1-1, lost to WI by 30. Worst NRR among Group C contenders. May not qualify. |
| 🇦🇫 Afghanistan | 5% @ 29.00 | ~0% eliminated | ↓ −5% | 0-2. Lost to NZ and SA (double Super Over). Naveen injured. Our dark horse call was wrong. |
Pre-tournament predictions published January 9, 2026. Current predictions updated February 19, 2026. This table updates daily.
📊 Key Takeaway
Our two main value picks (West Indies and New Zealand) have been upgraded after strong tournament starts. Our dark horse (Afghanistan) was a miss — replaced by Sri Lanka. The biggest market shift: Australia halved from 16% → 8% after losing to Zimbabwe. The market has not adjusted enough for England, who may not even qualify but are still priced at 11%.
Updated Outright Odds & Value Analysis
The market has shifted since the tournament began. Here is where the value lies now — and where it has disappeared.
Current market odds vs our updated AI model probabilities. Green = value, Red = avoid. Sorted by edge.
| Team | Form | Our Prob | Market | Best Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌴 West Indies | 2-0 | 12% | 6% | 17.0 | +6.0% |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 2-0 | 11% | 8% | 13.0 | +3.0% |
| 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | 3-0 | 8% | 3.5% | 29.0 | +4.5% |
| 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | 2-0 | 2% | 1% | 67.0 | +1.0% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 2-0 | 14% | 18% | 5.56 | −4.0% |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan | 3-1 | 7% | 7% | 14.3 | 0.0% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 1-2 | 0% | 11% | 9.00 | ELIMINATED |
| 🇮🇳 India | 4-0 | 34% | 47% | 2.15 | −13.0% |
| 🏴 England | 2-1 | 4% | 14% | 6.00 | −10.0% |
Market odds from Polymarket and major bookmakers, February 19, 2026. Odds change daily — always check Oddschecker for live prices. Use our implied probability calculator to convert any odds.
Best T20 World Cup Betting Sites
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Updated Betting Recommendations
Best Value — Vindicated ✅
West Indies @ 17.00
+6.0%
Edge
0.5u
Stake
We backed WI at 21.00 pre-tournament. Now 2-0 with Shepherd's 5/20 hat-trick and 30-run win over England. Two-time champions looking like the most balanced side. Odds shortened to ~17.00 but still massively underpriced at 6% market probability vs our 12%.
Value Bet — Vindicated ✅
New Zealand @ 13.00
+3.0%
Edge
0.5u
Stake
Our pre-tournament pick at 17.00 looking strong. Tim Seifert leads all scorers with 154 runs. They beat Afghanistan by 5 wickets and crushed UAE by 10 wickets (175/0). ICC tournament specialists who always outperform expectations.
New Dark Horse
Sri Lanka @ 29.00
+2.5%
Edge
0.25u
Stake
The tournament's most explosive team. Best NRR (+3.125), highest score (225/5), Shanaka's record-fast fifty. Co-host advantage for Super 8 and knockouts. Maheesh Theekshana's spin on home pitches is lethal. The market has barely noticed.
Avoid — Overpriced
India @ 2.50
-6.0%
Edge
India are 2-0 and look dominant (+3.050 NRR). But 40% implied probability for a 20-team knockout is absurd. No defending champion has won. Suryakumar Yadav's captaincy is untested in knockouts. The market knows they are good — that is why there is no value.
Biggest Avoid — May Not Qualify
England @ 9.00
-7.0%
Edge
The worst value in the market. England are 1-1 with the worst NRR (-0.650) among teams on 2 points in Group C. Scotland and Italy are above them. They may not even reach the Super 8 — yet bookmakers still imply 11% to win the whole thing. Staggering mispricing.
Our Miss — Eliminated
Afghanistan — Pre-Tournament Dark Horse
We flagged Afghanistan at 29.00 as a dark horse. They lost to NZ by 5 wickets and to SA via double Super Over. Naveen-ul-Haq is injured. 0-2 and virtually eliminated. The lesson: form is temporary, and 2024 semi-final pedigree did not carry over. We take this miss on the chin.
Staking: 1 unit = 1% of your betting bankroll. We use 0.5u for edges between 2-5%, 0.25u for edges near 2%, and 1u for edges above 5%.
Team-by-Team Analysis: Tournament Form
India — Dominant but Overpriced
India
Tournament form: Beat USA by 29 runs (161/9 vs 132/8). Crushed Namibia by 93 runs (209/9 vs 116). Suryakumar Yadav hit 84* vs USA. Mohammed Siraj replaced injured Harshit Rana and took wickets immediately.
Strengths: +3.050 NRR (highest in tournament). Home advantage across 5 Indian venues. Bumrah, Varun Chakaravarthy, and Kuldeep Yadav give them the deepest spin options. Batting firepower with SKY, Abhishek Sharma, Hardik Pandya.
Concerns: No Kohli, Rohit, or Jadeja (all retired from T20Is). Suryakumar untested as captain in ICC knockouts. Bumrah workload risk across a 30-day tournament.
Betting verdict: India are the best team. But at 2.50 (40% implied), you are paying a 6-point premium. Fair price is 2.94 (34%). No defending champion has won the T20 WC. Pass at current odds.
West Indies — Our Value Pick Delivers
West Indies
Tournament form: Beat Scotland by 35 runs (182/5 vs 147) with Shepherd's historic 5/20 hat-trick. Beat England by 30 runs (196/6 vs 166) — Hetmyer 64 off 36 was devastating. Two comprehensive wins against very different opposition.
Strengths: Most complete bowling attack in the tournament (Shepherd, Holder, Hosein, Joseph, Motie). Power batting depth (Pooran, Hetmyer, Charles, Powell). Two-time T20 WC champions (2012, 2016) — they know how to win this tournament.
Super 8 path: Likely in Group 1 with India, South Africa, and Zimbabwe/Australia. Tough group, but WI have beaten every quality opponent they have faced so far.
Betting verdict: Our pre-tournament call at 21.00 is being validated. Still +6% edge at 17.00. The market is slow to react. Back them before odds shorten further.
New Zealand — The Quiet Contenders
New Zealand
Tournament form: Beat Afghanistan by 5 wickets (183/5 chasing 182/6) and destroyed UAE by 10 wickets (175/0 chasing 173/6). Tim Seifert leads all scorers with 154 runs including 89*. Finn Allen opened with him in that record 175-run partnership.
Strengths: Seifert is in career-best form. Jacob Duffy (#2 ranked T20I bowler). Mitchell Santner's captaincy is composed. They have reached knockouts in 5 of the last 6 ICC events — the market never learns.
Super 8 path: Group 2 with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Scotland/England. Very favourable draw — they should reach semi-finals from this group.
Betting verdict: We recommended NZ at 17.00 pre-tournament. Now 13.00 and still offering +3% edge. ICC tournament pedigree is real.
South Africa — Resilient but Fairly Priced
South Africa
Tournament form: Crushed Canada by 57 runs (213/4 vs 156/8). Survived the tournament's most dramatic match vs Afghanistan — tied at 187, then won a double Super Over. That resilience under pressure is invaluable.
Strengths: 2024 T20 WC finalists. Aiden Markram's leadership in crisis moments. Heinrich Klaasen is a match-winner on turning pitches. Keshav Maharaj provides left-arm spin.
Concerns: Tony de Zorzi hamstring injury. The "choker" narrative lingers — have they truly shed it? Lost 2024 final to India.
Betting verdict: Fairly priced at 6.50 (15% implied vs our 14%). Tiny negative edge. No value, but no trap either. Neutral — pass.
Sri Lanka — The New Dark Horse
Sri Lanka
Tournament form: Beat Ireland by 20 runs, posted tournament-high 225/5 vs Oman, then eliminated Australia by 8 wickets (184/2 vs 181). Pathum Nissanka's century (107*) was statement-making. 3-0 with 6 points and best NRR (+3.125). Qualified for Super 8s.
Strengths: Co-host advantage — Super 8 matches and potential semi/final in Colombo and Kandy. Maheesh Theekshana's mystery spin on home pitches. Explosive batting depth. Experience from 2014 T20 WC title.
Concerns: Wanindu Hasaranga ruled out with hamstring tear (replaced by Dushan Hemantha). Quality of opposition so far (Ireland, Oman).
Betting verdict: Our new dark horse pick after eliminating Australia. At 29.00 (3.5% implied), massive value with our model at 8%. Co-host advantage plus 3-0 perfect record. Strong value at 29.00 — back before Super 8 odds compress further.
Pakistan — Steady but Overrated
Pakistan
Tournament form: Beat Netherlands by 3 wickets (148/7 chasing 147) and USA by 32 runs (190/9 vs 158/8). Sahibzada Farhan has 120 runs in 2 matches. Solid but not spectacular.
Neutral venue factor: All Pakistan matches in Sri Lanka due to BCCI-PCB agreement. If Pakistan reach the final, it moves from Ahmedabad (132,000 capacity) to Colombo — removing India's home crowd fortress.
Concerns: Playing exclusively in Sri Lanka limits home advantage. Shaheen Afridi's form and fitness in humid conditions. Group A is straightforward but Super 8 Group 2 includes NZ and SL.
Betting verdict: At 11.00 (10% implied), Pakistan are 3 points overpriced vs our 7%. They must beat India on Feb 15 to show they are genuine contenders. Pass until proven.
Australia — ELIMINATED (The 2021 Champions Are Out)
Australia
Tournament obituary: Beat Ireland by 67 runs, lost to Zimbabwe by 23 runs, then lost to Sri Lanka by 8 wickets (181 vs 184/2). Pathum Nissanka's century (107*) was the final nail. Australia are eliminated with 1 win from 3 matches.
How it all went wrong: Defending champions cannot finish in top 2 of Group B. Sri Lanka (6 points) and Zimbabwe (4 points) have qualified. Ireland (2 points, 1 match remaining) can still overtake Australia mathematically.
The brutal reality: Pat Cummins' back issues, Mitchell Marsh's form slump, and mental fragility after early setbacks. Two losses to Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka in the same World Cup — unthinkable pre-tournament.
Betting verdict: Bookmakers still have them at 9.00 (11% implied) — this is the worst mispricing in cricket betting history. Australia are eliminated. Any bet on them is dead money. Withdraw all stakes immediately.
England — Crisis Mode
England
Tournament form: Scraped past Nepal by 4 runs (184/7 vs 180/6) then lost to West Indies by 30 runs (196/6 vs 166). Sitting 4th in Group C with the worst NRR (-0.650) among teams on 2 points.
Must-win vs Scotland (Feb 14): England face Scotland in Kolkata today. A loss could eliminate them. Even a win may not be enough — NRR damage from the WI defeat is significant.
The mispricing is staggering: The market implies 11% probability for a team that might not reach the Super 8. This is the single biggest mispricing in the tournament. Bookmakers are trading on the England brand name, not reality.
Betting verdict: The worst bet in the market. At 9.00, England should be 25.00+ based on actual performance. Avoid at any price under 20.00.
Zimbabwe — The Fairytale
Zimbabwe
Tournament form: Beat Oman by 8 wickets (106/2 chasing 103) then stunned Australia by 23 runs. Brian Bennett's unbeaten 64 and Muzarabani's 4/17 were world-class performances. Their second ever T20 WC win over Australia.
Reality check: Beautiful story but winning the tournament requires beating India, SA, and WI in Super 8 Group 1. That is an enormous ask. Enjoy the ride, but stake accordingly.
Betting verdict: At 67.00+ (1% implied), there is tiny value if they make Super 8 — but this is a lottery ticket, not a serious bet. 0.1u fun bet only.
Super 8 Preview: The Path to the Final
The top 2 from each group advance to two Super 8 groups. Pre-tournament seedings determine placement, not group-stage performance. Here is the likely Super 8 picture:
Super 8 — Group 1 (India venues)
🇮🇳 India (Group A winner)
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe (Group B — replaces Australia's seed)
🌴 West Indies (Group C winner)
🇿🇦 South Africa (Group D)
Group of Death. India, SA, and WI all genuine contenders. Zimbabwe are the underdog. Two qualify for semis.
Super 8 — Group 2 (Sri Lanka venues)
🏴 Scotland (Group C — replaces England's seed)
🇳🇿 New Zealand (Group D winner)
🇵🇰 Pakistan (Group A)
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka (Group B winner)
Favourable for NZ and Pakistan. Sri Lanka have home advantage. Scotland would be the dark horse. Two qualify for semis.
Note: If Australia overtake Zimbabwe in Group B, or England survive in Group C, the Super 8 seedings change. Australia would take the X2 seed in Group 1; England would take the Y1 seed in Group 2. The current projection assumes Zimbabwe and Scotland qualify based on group standings as of February 14.
Betting Implications of the Super 8 Draw
Group 1 is brutal. India, West Indies, and South Africa in one group means at least one genuine contender is eliminated before the semis. This is why backing multiple value picks (WI at 17.00 + NZ at 13.00) is smart — one will likely reach the semis from the easier Group 2.
Group 2 favours New Zealand. If Scotland qualify instead of England, NZ’s path becomes significantly easier. Their main competition would be Pakistan and Sri Lanka — both beatable. NZ could enter the semis as the form team.
Sri Lanka’s home advantage peaks. Super 8 Group 2 matches are in Sri Lanka. If SL reach the semi-finals and Pakistan also qualifies, the semi and final move to Colombo — Sri Lanka’s backyard. At 29.00, this path is not priced in.
The Pakistan Factor: The Venue Wildcard
Pakistan play all their matches in Sri Lanka due to the BCCI-PCB neutral venue agreement. Here is why this matters:
If Pakistan reach the final:
- The final moves from Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad (132,000 capacity) to R. Premadasa Stadium, Colombo
- India lose their home fortress and a 130,000-strong crowd advantage
- Semi-finals involving Pakistan also shift to Sri Lanka
Betting angle: India’s 34% probability partly reflects home advantage in Ahmedabad. If Pakistan advance deep, that advantage evaporates. This scenario significantly benefits New Zealand and West Indies, who would face a neutral-venue final rather than a hostile Ahmedabad crowd.
Expert Predictions vs Our Model
| Source | Pick | Reasoning | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our Model | West Indies @ 17.00 | +6% edge, best value | ✅ 2-0 |
| Our Model | New Zealand @ 13.00 | +3% edge, underrated | ✅ 2-0 |
| Our Model (pre-tournament) | Afghanistan @ 29.00 | Dark horse, spin attack | ❌ 0-2 |
| Aakash Chopra | India | “Spin-heavy squad suits conditions” | ✅ 2-0 |
| Irfan Pathan | India | “Varun Chakaravarthy trump card” | ✅ 2-0 |
| Polymarket ($1M+ volume) | India @ 41% | Defending champions + home | ✅ 2-0 |
| Paddy Power | New Zealand @ 13 | “Best outside tip” | ✅ 2-0 |
Our view: The experts are all backing India — which is exactly why India is 2.50 and offers no value. We look for where the crowd is wrong. West Indies at 17.00 and New Zealand at 13.00 is where the smart money goes.
Historical T20 World Cup Trends
Before placing your outright bet, understand these patterns — they repeat:
No defending champion has won. India (2007→2009), Pakistan (2009→2010), West Indies (2012→2014, 2016→2021), England (2022→2024), India (2024→2026?). The curse is 9 from 9.
Spin wins in Asia. Of the 4 T20 WCs in the subcontinent (2012, 2014, 2016, 2024), teams with elite spin reached the final every time. Sri Lanka won 2014 with Malinga + Mathews. India won 2024 with Bumrah + Kuldeep.
Dark horses thrive in 20-team formats. Afghanistan reached 2024 semi-finals from nowhere. West Indies won from obscurity in 2012 and 2016. The expanded 20-team format increases upset potential.
Super 8 seedings matter. The draw can make or break campaigns. Group 2 (Sri Lanka venues) historically suits subcontinental teams — which is where NZ, PAK, and SL are seeded.
Odds shorten after group stage. If you are going to bet on WI or NZ, do it now before Super 8 results compress the odds further. Pre-tournament 21.00 is already 17.00.
T20 World Cup 2026 Betting FAQ
Who is the betting favourite to win T20 World Cup 2026?
India remain clear favourites at around 2.50 (40% implied probability). They are 2-0 with dominant wins over USA (+29) and Namibia (+93). However, our AI model gives them only 34% — making them overpriced by 6 percentage points.
What are the best value bets for T20 World Cup 2026 right now?
Our model identifies West Indies @ 17.00 as the best value with +6% edge — they are 2-0 including beating England by 30 runs. New Zealand @ 13.00 (+3% edge) are also 2-0 with Tim Seifert scoring 154 runs. Sri Lanka @ 29.00 (+2.5% edge) are the new dark horse with the tournament's highest score of 225/5.
Should I bet on India to win T20 World Cup 2026?
India at 2.50 offer -6% negative edge. Our model gives them 34% vs 40% implied by the odds. They are dominant (2-0, +3.050 NRR) but the market has overreacted. No team has ever defended the T20 World Cup. Wait for odds to drift above 3.00.
Has West Indies justified their value bet status?
Absolutely. We recommended West Indies pre-tournament at 21.00. They are now 2-0 with a 30-run demolition of England and Romario Shepherd's 5/20 (including a hat-trick) vs Scotland. Odds have shortened to ~17.00, but still offer +6% edge. Our call is being validated.
Who has qualified for the Super 8 stage?
Eight teams are qualified: India, Pakistan (Group A), Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe (Group B - both qualified), West Indies, England (Group C), South Africa, New Zealand (Group D). Australia is eliminated from Group B with just 1 win from 3 matches after losing to Sri Lanka by 8 wickets.
What happened to Afghanistan — were they a bad bet?
Yes. We flagged Afghanistan as a dark horse at 29.00 pre-tournament. They are now 0-2 — lost to New Zealand by 5 wickets and to South Africa via a dramatic double Super Over. Naveen-ul-Haq is injured. They are effectively eliminated. We own this miss.
Who are the new dark horses for T20 World Cup 2026?
Sri Lanka @ 29.00 have replaced Afghanistan as the prime dark horse. They are 2-0 with the best NRR in the tournament (+3.125), scored 225/5 vs Oman, and have co-host advantage for Super 8 and knockout matches. Zimbabwe @ 67.00 beat Australia and are 2-0 — a genuine fairytale.
What happens if Pakistan reaches the final?
Per the BCCI-PCB neutral venue agreement, if Pakistan qualifies for the final, it moves from Ahmedabad to Colombo. This removes India's 132,000-strong home crowd advantage. Pakistan are 2-0 and playing all their matches in Sri Lanka — familiar territory.
How accurate are CricketPrediction's predictions?
Our AI model has correctly predicted 20 out of 24 T20 World Cup 2026 matches (83.3%). We also called West Indies and New Zealand as value bets pre-tournament — both are now 2-0. Our outright predictions are updated daily with live tournament data.
Which bookmaker has the best T20 World Cup odds?
Use Oddschecker to compare live odds across bookmakers. Odds shift daily during the tournament. For prediction market data, Polymarket offers transparent real-time pricing with over $1M in trading volume on T20 WC outcomes.
Final Verdict — Updated February 16
Back West Indies @ 17.00 & New Zealand @ 13.00
Both our pre-tournament picks are 2-0. The market is still underpricing them. India at 2.50 is a trap — the defending champion curse is real. England at 9.00 is the worst bet in cricket. Sri Lanka at 29.00 is the new dark horse.
+6.0%
WI Edge
+3.0%
NZ Edge
+2.5%
SL Edge
-6.0%
India Edge
Summary
- ● Best Value: West Indies @ 17.00 — +6% edge, 2-0, beat England, Shepherd hat-trick ✅
- ● Second Pick: New Zealand @ 13.00 — +3% edge, 2-0, Seifert 154 runs ✅
- ● New Dark Horse: Sri Lanka @ 29.00 — +2.5% edge, co-hosts, 225/5, best NRR
- ● Avoid: India @ 2.50 (-6%), England @ 9.00 (-7%), Australia @ 9.00 (-3%)
- ● Our Miss: Afghanistan at 29.00 — 0-2, eliminated. We own it.
- ● Track Record: 20/24 match predictions correct (83.3%) · Updated daily
For the full tournament schedule, current group standings, and all match predictions, see our T20 World Cup 2026 hub page. For daily match-by-match predictions and betting tips, visit our cricket betting tips homepage.
More Winner Predictions
Odds sourced from Polymarket and major bookmakers, February 16, 2026. This page is updated daily during the tournament. Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly.