Australia vs England Prediction - The Ashes 2025-26
AUS Australia
ENG England
The Ashes 2025-26
Australia vs England Match Prediction
The Ashes is decided—Australia lead 3-1 and have retained the urn. But the 5th Test at Sydney is far from a dead rubber. England ended a 15-year winless streak in Australia at the MCG, and the SCG presents a unique challenge: Australia's most rain-cursed venue with a 35% Draw probability.
Series Context
Australia dominated the first three Tests (Perth by 8 wickets, Brisbane by 8 wickets, Adelaide by 82 runs) before England's breakthrough at the MCG. The Boxing Day Test was chaotic—20 wickets on Day 1, finished in 2 days—and England chased 175 with 4 wickets to spare. Now they'll look to make it 3-2 and deny Australia the clean sweep they crave.
For Australia, motivation is clear: avoid back-to-back losses and prevent England from gaining momentum before future series. Steve Smith captains in Pat Cummins' absence, seeking his first win as skipper since 2018.
Squad News (Critical)
Australia OUT:
- Pat Cummins (back) - Rested for remainder of series
- Nathan Lyon (torn hamstring) - Surgery required, season over
Steve Smith captains. Todd Murphy replaces Lyon (spinner). Jhye Richardson/Brendan Doggett compete for pace spot.
England OUT:
- Jofra Archer (side strain) - Out of tour
- Mark Wood (knee) - Out of tour
- Gus Atkinson (hamstring) - Left MCG mid-over, unlikely to play
England's pace attack is decimated. Likely XI: Carse, Woakes, Potts/Tongue, Bashir. Ben Stokes will need to contribute with the ball.
Weather Forecast (Match-Defining)
| Day | Date | Conditions | Rain Chance | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | Jan 4 | Scattered clouds | 17% | 0.1mm |
| Day 2 | Jan 5 | Isolated tstorms | 72% | 7.2mm |
| Day 3 | Jan 6 | Isolated tstorms | 64% | 4.3mm |
| Day 4 | Jan 7 | A few tstorms | 68% | 7.9mm |
| Day 5 | Jan 8 | Clearing late | 45% | 1.1mm |
Total expected rainfall: ~20mm. Days 2-4 have 64-72% rain chance. We could lose 1-2 sessions (30-60 overs) to delays.
SCG: Australia's Rain-Cursed Venue
The SCG has the worst rain record of any Australian Test venue:
- 26 days completely washed out (vs 0 for Perth, 2 for Adelaide)
- 64% of days affected by rain in last 8 years
- 7 of last 8 Tests rain-affected
- 6 of last 11 Tests ended in draws
- More washed-out days than Manchester
This is not a normal Australian venue. The Draw is a genuine threat.
Pitch Characteristics
The SCG is Australia's most batting-friendly venue since 2020:
- Average first innings score: 318-400
- Day 1 batting average: 50+ (highest in Australia)
- Teams batting first win 70% of matches
- Spin becomes a factor on Days 4-5
All captains since 2020 have chosen to bat first. The toss winner will bat.
Key Player Stats (Ashes 2025-26)
| Player | Team | Role | Series Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Head | AUS | Opener | 379 runs at 63.16 (2 centuries) |
| Zak Crawley | ENG | Opener | 256 runs at 32.00 |
| Joe Root | ENG | No.4 | 13,762 career runs, ICC #1 ranked |
| Steve Smith | AUS | No.4/Capt | 10,580 career runs, 56.74 average |
| Mitchell Starc | AUS | Pace | 24 wickets at 17.00 |
| Scott Boland | AUS | Pace | 16.53 career avg (best since 1900) |
| Brydon Carse | ENG | Pace | 19 wickets (2nd best SR for ENG in Aus) |
Head-to-Head at SCG
Australia vs England at the SCG: 23 wins - 7 draws - 22 wins. This is the tightest venue in Ashes cricket. England's last SCG win was January 2011 (innings and 83 runs)—part of their only series win in Australia since 1987.
Bowling Comparison
Australia: Starc (24 wkts, 17.00 avg) and Boland (16.53 career avg) remain world-class. The concern is Todd Murphy replacing Lyon—untested at this level in Australian conditions. On a Day 5 SCG pitch that turns, Murphy's inexperience could be exposed.
England: Carse (19 wkts) has been the series find. But with Archer, Wood, and Atkinson all out, the attack lacks firepower. Woakes/Potts and Bashir must step up. Ben Stokes will bowl more overs than his body wants.
Our Probability Assessment
| Outcome | Our Probability | Fair Odds | Bet If Above |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia Win | 48% | 2.08 | 2.08 |
| Draw | 35% | 2.86 | 2.86 |
| England Win | 17% | 5.88 | 5.88 |
Draw No Bet Market
| Outcome | DNB Probability | Fair DNB Odds | Bet If Above |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia DNB | 73.8% | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| England DNB | 26.2% | 3.82 | 3.82 |
Final Verdict
Australia are favourites but this is NOT a straightforward pick. The weather forecast (72% rain Day 2, 64-68% Days 3-4) and the SCG's notorious draw rate make the Draw a live threat at 35%.
Without Cummins and Lyon, Australia's attack is weaker. England's momentum from the MCG is real. But England's bowling is even more depleted—their attack is essentially Carse plus passengers.
Australia at 48% confidence is our pick for the 3-way market.
Safer alternative: Australia Draw No Bet at odds above 1.35 removes rain risk.
Value Note
The Draw is likely underpriced by bookmakers. If you see Draw odds above 2.86, there may be value given the SCG's history (6 of 11 recent Tests drawn) and this week's forecast.
Markets to consider:
- Draw @ odds above 2.86 - Weather + flat pitch + depleted bowling attacks
- Australia DNB @ odds above 1.35 - Removes rain risk, still backs the favourites
- Travis Head Top Aus Batter - 379 runs this series, loves batting first at Australian venues
