Hampshire vs Nottinghamshire Prediction & Betting Tips

Hampshire are our pick at 52%.

Our AI model predicts Hampshire to win Semi-Final 2 with 52% probability, which makes this the closest reading of the whole Finals Day. The unusual part is what we do not have: Hampshire and Nottinghamshire have not played each other once this season, so there is no form line between them to lean on. Both sides arrived here by winning a knockout, and that is where the difference shows.

Hampshire Are Back at Edgbaston, where they keep ending up

Hampshire reached Finals Day the emphatic way. They made 211 for 3 against Essex in the quarter-final and bowled them out for 136, winning by 75 runs. James Vince made 125 of those runs on his own, setting a target of 212 that was effectively out of reach by the halfway point.

The wider season is patchier. Hampshire won eight of their twelve matches, but their last six broke three wins and three defeats, and in one of them Essex bowled them out for 130. Joe Weatherley led their run-scoring through the group stage, and Scott Currie has been the spine of the attack, taking his wickets while conceding less than most. This is also familiar ground: Hampshire were the beaten finalists here in 2025 and won the title here in 2022.

Nottinghamshire Won the Hard Way and Have the Better Recent Run

Nottinghamshire got here by defending 163 for 6 against Surrey at Trent Bridge, holding them to 156 for 7 and winning by 7 runs. That is the opposite of Hampshire's route: a low total defended under pressure rather than a chase made irrelevant.

It is also the more consistent recent form. Nottinghamshire won eight of their twelve matches and four of their last five, the exception a defeat to Yorkshire. George Munsey led their group-stage run-scoring and Mohammad Ali was their leading wicket-taker, while Liam Patterson-White has been the most economical bowler in this match. Their last Finals Day title came in 2020.

Key Matchups: where the semi-final turns

James Vince vs Mohammad Ali: Vince's 125 decided the quarter-final by itself, and Nottinghamshire's leading wicket-taker is the man most likely to be handed the new ball at him. Hampshire's innings has a habit of following Vince's; if Ali removes him early, the base numbers move.

Liam Dawson vs George Linde: Two front-line spin-bowling all-rounders, one in each side, doing the same job through the middle overs. Whichever of them keeps his rate down while the other leaks is the likeliest single cause of a 15-run swing.

George Munsey vs Scott Currie: Nottinghamshire's leading run-scorer against the spine of Hampshire's attack. Munsey sets the tempo at the top; Currie is the man built to stop him.

Match Analysis: Where This Match Will Be Won and Lost

With no head-to-head to read, the quarter-finals are the only current evidence, and they say opposite things. Hampshire's was decided by one innings: Vince's 125 made the chase a formality. Nottinghamshire's was decided by an attack defending a modest total under real pressure, holding Surrey seven runs short with the game live to the last over.

That is the tension. Hampshire have the higher ceiling and the man capable of removing the contest on his own. Nottinghamshire have the more reliable floor and the better recent run, four wins in five. On a neutral ground with no dew, the model splits them by four points, which is about as close as it gets.

The spin match-up is where a tight game turns. Dawson and Linde are the same kind of cricketer on opposite sides, and Patterson-White gives Nottinghamshire a second control option that Hampshire cannot quite mirror.

Hampshire vs Nottinghamshire Prediction: Hampshire, but only just

Hampshire to win at 52%. The ceiling argument wins narrowly: they have the batter who can end a semi-final in an afternoon, and they have been here more recently than anyone else on the card. But 52% is a genuine two-way contest, and Nottinghamshire's four-in-five run is the better recent form line.

The market has this priced about right. The live angle is the toss, and it is worth watching the coverage at 14:00 to see who calls it.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Hampshire vs Nottinghamshire in the Vitality Blast semi-final?

Our AI model predicts Hampshire to win the Vitality Blast Finals Day semi-final at Edgbaston on 18 July 2026, with a 52% probability against Nottinghamshire's 48%. Hampshire reached Finals Day by beating Essex by 75 runs; Nottinghamshire got there by defending 163 against Surrey. It is close enough that the toss matters.

What is the toss prediction for Hampshire vs Nottinghamshire?

Bat first. Edgbaston has favoured the side setting a total across Blast cricket since 2014, by 68 wins to 56, and a 14:30 BST start means dew plays no part. The advantage is worth roughly two percentage points to whichever side bats first.

What odds are available for Hampshire vs Nottinghamshire?

Hampshire are available at 1.80 and Nottinghamshire at 2.01 for the Finals Day semi-final on 18 July 2026. Our fair odds are 1.92 and 2.08, so both prices sit inside fair value before the toss. Nottinghamshire's 2.01 turns positive only if they bat first, when the match becomes level and their fair price falls to 2.00.

How does the toss affect Hampshire vs Nottinghamshire?

Edgbaston's Blast record leans to the side batting first, so the toss is worth about two points. If Hampshire bat first they move to 54%; if Nottinghamshire bat first the semi-final is level at 50-50. A 14:30 start means there is no dew to complicate it.

Have Hampshire and Nottinghamshire played each other in 2026?

No. Hampshire and Nottinghamshire have not met once in the 2026 Vitality Blast. Hampshire played in the South group and Nottinghamshire in the North, and no cross-pool fixture paired them, so this Finals Day semi-final at Edgbaston on 18 July is their first meeting of the season.