Vitality Blast 2026 Winner Prediction
Outright odds and market-implied probability for all 18 counties, plus where the value lies for Finals Day.
Odds updated: 2026-06-06 · By CricketPrediction.com
Surrey are favourites to win the 2026 Vitality Blast at around 6.00 (13% market-implied), with South Group leaders Hampshire next at 7.00 and Yorkshire at 7.50. Defending champions Somerset have drifted to 9.00. With 18 counties and a knockout from the quarter-finals, the title is far more open than the short prices suggest.
$5,000,000 Prize Pool
Sweet Holiday Chase · 15% rakeback with code maximus88
T20 Blast 2026 Outright Odds — All 18 Counties
Market-implied % is the de-vigged probability from the prices below (book overround ≈ 25% across 18 runners).
| # | County | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Surrey | 6.00 | 13% |
| 2 | Hampshire | 7.00 | 11% |
| 3 | Yorkshire | 7.50 | 11% |
| 4 | Northamptonshire | 9.00 | 8.9% |
| 5 | Somerset | 9.00 | 8.9% |
| 6 | Kent | 11.00 | 7.3% |
| 7 | Lancashire | 15.00 | 5.3% |
| 8 | Durham | 15.00 | 5.3% |
| 9 | Gloucestershire | 17.00 | 4.7% |
| 10 | Derbyshire | 19.00 | 4.2% |
| 11 | Worcestershire | 21.00 | 3.8% |
| 12 | Essex | 21.00 | 3.8% |
| 13 | Glamorgan | 23.00 | 3.5% |
| 14 | Nottinghamshire | 26.00 | 3.1% |
| 15 | Warwickshire | 51.00 | 1.6% |
| 16 | Sussex | 51.00 | 1.6% |
| 17 | Leicestershire | 51.00 | 1.6% |
| 18 | Middlesex | 67.00 | 1.2% |
Title Picture by Group
Only the top two in each group are guaranteed a quarter-final, with two third-placed sides also advancing — so a county's title chance starts with topping a six-team group.
North Group
- Yorkshire 7.50
- Lancashire 15.00
- Durham 15.00
- Derbyshire 19.00
- Nottinghamshire 26.00
- Leicestershire 51.00
Central Group
- Northamptonshire 9.00
- Somerset 9.00
- Gloucestershire 17.00
- Worcestershire 21.00
- Glamorgan 23.00
- Warwickshire 51.00
South Group
- Surrey 6.00
- Hampshire 7.00
- Kent 11.00
- Essex 21.00
- Sussex 51.00
- Middlesex 67.00
Our Read
Surrey (6.00) still head the market on squad depth and home advantage at the Kia Oval, though they have drifted from shorter early prices and currently sit second in the South Group on points. A single off-day in the quarter-finals ends any campaign — the risk baked into every short outright price in a knockout competition.
Hampshire (7.00) and Yorkshire (7.50) have shortened into second and third favouritism by topping the South and North groups. Hampshire reached the 2025 final and lead the South on 16 points; Yorkshire sit clear at the top of the North.
Northamptonshire (9.00) are the form story, unbeaten at 4-0 with the best net run rate in the competition, now level in the market with defending champions Somerset (9.00), who have drifted after a tighter start in a strong Central Group. Among the bigger prices, any county that tops its group is a live each-way Finals Day proposition even if lifting the trophy is a stretch.
These are market prices with de-vigged implied probabilities — not a model projection. Treat the outright as a long-range each-way market and revisit it once the quarter-final line-up firms up.
Track the race live
Group positions decide who reaches the quarter-finals. Follow the live points table and our match-by-match predictions as the groups take shape.
T20 Blast Winner Prediction FAQ
Who is favourite to win the T20 Blast 2026?
Surrey are the outright favourites at around 6.00 (≈13% market-implied), with Hampshire (7.00) and Yorkshire (7.50) next. Surrey's batting depth and home advantage underpin the price, though they currently sit second in the South Group behind Hampshire on points.
Who are the defending T20 Blast champions?
Somerset won the 2025 Vitality Blast, beating Hampshire in the final at Edgbaston — their second title in three years (they also won in 2023). They sit in the Central Group for 2026.
When and where is T20 Blast 2026 Finals Day?
Finals Day is at Edgbaston, Birmingham on Saturday 18 July 2026 — two semi-finals and the final on the same day. The eight quarter-finalists are the top two from each group plus the two best third-placed sides.
How is the T20 Blast 2026 decided?
Eighteen counties play in three groups of six (North, Central, South), 12 group games each. The top two per group plus the two best third-placed sides reach the quarter-finals; the four quarter-final winners contest Finals Day. It is a knockout from the quarters, so variance is high and longer-priced sides have genuine each-way appeal.
Where can I find value in the T20 Blast outright market?
Short-priced favourites like Surrey carry knockout variance — one bad quarter-final ends the campaign. A side topping its group at a bigger price can offer each-way value, since reaching Finals Day is a realistic outcome even if lifting the trophy is not.
Cricket betting is entertainment, not a financial strategy. Gamble responsibly. 18+ only.