Vitality Blast 2026 Winner Prediction
Outright odds and market-implied probability for all 18 counties, plus where the value lies for Finals Day.
Odds updated: 2026-05-28 · By CricketPrediction.com
Surrey are favourites to win the 2026 Vitality Blast at around 4.50 (18% market-implied), just ahead of defending champions Somerset at about 5.50. With 18 counties and a knockout from the quarter-finals, the title is far more open than those two prices suggest.
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T20 Blast 2026 Outright Odds — All 18 Counties
Market-implied % is the de-vigged probability from the prices below (book overround ≈ 25% across 18 runners).
| # | County | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Surrey | 4.50 | 18% |
| 2 | Somerset | 5.50 | 15% |
| 3 | Yorkshire | 8.50 | 9.4% |
| 4 | Lancashire | 11.00 | 7.3% |
| 5 | Durham | 11.00 | 7.3% |
| 6 | Kent | 12.00 | 6.6% |
| 7 | Northamptonshire | 13.00 | 6.1% |
| 8 | Hampshire | 15.00 | 5.3% |
| 9 | Sussex | 19.00 | 4.2% |
| 10 | Nottinghamshire | 19.00 | 4.2% |
| 11 | Warwickshire | 23.00 | 3.5% |
| 12 | Gloucestershire | 23.00 | 3.5% |
| 13 | Worcestershire | 29.00 | 2.8% |
| 14 | Glamorgan | 34.00 | 2.3% |
| 15 | Essex | 50.00 | 1.6% |
| 16 | Derbyshire | 51.00 | 1.6% |
| 17 | Leicestershire | 67.00 | 1.2% |
| 18 | Middlesex | 81.00 | 1.0% |
Title Picture by Group
Only the top two in each group are guaranteed a quarter-final, with two third-placed sides also advancing — so a county's title chance starts with topping a six-team group.
North Group
- Yorkshire 8.50
- Lancashire 11.00
- Durham 11.00
- Nottinghamshire 19.00
- Derbyshire 51.00
- Leicestershire 67.00
Central Group
- Somerset 5.50
- Northamptonshire 13.00
- Warwickshire 23.00
- Gloucestershire 23.00
- Worcestershire 29.00
- Glamorgan 34.00
South Group
- Surrey 4.50
- Kent 12.00
- Hampshire 15.00
- Sussex 19.00
- Essex 50.00
- Middlesex 81.00
Our Read
Surrey (4.50) head the market on squad depth and a strong start in the South Group, but a single off-day in the quarter-finals ends any campaign — that is the risk baked into every short outright price in a knockout competition.
Somerset (5.50) are the side to respect: champions in 2025 and 2023, with the big-game temperament a Finals Day run demands. They begin in a competitive Central Group alongside Warwickshire, Worcestershire and an in-form Northamptonshire.
Yorkshire (8.50) and the chasing northern pack of Durham and Lancashire (both 11.00) headline a tight North Group where group position will swing on net run rate. Among the bigger prices, a county that tops its group is a live each-way Finals Day proposition even if lifting the trophy is a stretch.
These are market prices with de-vigged implied probabilities — not a model projection. Treat the outright as a long-range each-way market and revisit it once the quarter-final line-up firms up.
Track the race live
Group positions decide who reaches the quarter-finals. Follow the live points table and our match-by-match predictions as the groups take shape.
T20 Blast Winner Prediction FAQ
Who is favourite to win the T20 Blast 2026?
Surrey are the outright favourites at around 4.50 (≈18% market-implied), ahead of defending champions Somerset at about 5.50. Surrey's batting depth and a strong start in the South Group underpin the short price.
Who are the defending T20 Blast champions?
Somerset won the 2025 Vitality Blast, beating Hampshire in the final at Edgbaston — their second title in three years (they also won in 2023). They sit in the Central Group for 2026.
When and where is T20 Blast 2026 Finals Day?
Finals Day is at Edgbaston, Birmingham on Saturday 18 July 2026 — two semi-finals and the final on the same day. The eight quarter-finalists are the top two from each group plus the two best third-placed sides.
How is the T20 Blast 2026 decided?
Eighteen counties play in three groups of six (North, Central, South), 12 group games each. The top two per group plus the two best third-placed sides reach the quarter-finals; the four quarter-final winners contest Finals Day. It is a knockout from the quarters, so variance is high and longer-priced sides have genuine each-way appeal.
Where can I find value in the T20 Blast outright market?
Short-priced favourites like Surrey carry knockout variance — one bad quarter-final ends the campaign. Group leaders priced in the 11.00–19.00 range (for example a side topping its group with a strong net run rate) can offer each-way value, since reaching Finals Day is a realistic outcome even if lifting the trophy is not.
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