Hampshire vs Nottinghamshire Toss Prediction (HAM vs NOT)

Saturday, 18 July 2026 · 19:00 IST · Edgbaston · Cricket

Last updated: 16 July 2026

Toss prediction page launched 16 July 2026. The pre-toss call summarised here was originally published in our Hampshire vs Nottinghamshire match preview on 16 July 2026.

What will the toss winner choose?

Toss has not yet happened. The result below will be logged automatically within minutes of the toss via our live data feed.

Our predicted decision

bat first

From the article: "Toss: Bat first. The ground's record says setting a total is worth about two points, and there is no dew to argue the other way."

🪙 The toss market

The toss is priced as what it is — a coin. Both sides trade at effectively even money (1.92–1.95): a 50/50 event with margin on top, no value by construction. The bettable question is what follows — bat or bowl first, and how each branch reprices the match at this ground.

🏟️ What the toss means at Edgbaston

Toss impact: HIGH bat-first ground — chases succeed only 45% of the time here

▸ If Hampshire end up chasing: our model moves them to 50.0% — fair odds 2.00 (NOT 2.00)
▸ If Hampshire bat first: 54.0% — fair odds 1.85 (NOT 2.17)

A pre-toss match price averages both branches. On a ground like this, the toss itself creates — or kills — match-market value the moment it lands.

Back a team · DafaBet odds

Hampshire @1.80› Nottinghamshire @2.01›

Prices refresh every few minutes · 18+ · bet responsibly

How we made this Hampshire vs Nottinghamshire toss prediction

We do not predict who wins the coin flip itself; that is genuinely 50/50. We predict what the toss winner will choose to do. For this match, our pre-toss call was made in the article body before the toss happened. The result above shows whether the captain actually followed our predicted decision.

For the full methodology — venue toss patterns, dew, and captaincy psychology — see the data behind our toss calls.

Full match prediction

Beyond the toss, we publish a complete probability model for HAM vs NOT: win probability, fair odds, key matchups, and a scenario map.

Read full Hampshire vs Nottinghamshire prediction →

HAM vs NOT toss prediction FAQ

Who will win the HAM vs NOT toss?

No one can — a cricket toss is a genuine 50/50 event, and the market prices it at effectively even money (1.92–1.95 both sides). What can be predicted is the decision that follows, and that is what this page covers.

What will the toss winner choose in HAM vs NOT?

Our model predicts the toss winner will choose to bat first at Edgbaston. The call comes from our published Hampshire vs Nottinghamshire match analysis.

How does the toss affect the HAM vs NOT match odds?

Meaningfully. Edgbaston favours batting first (chases succeed only 45% of the time here), so our model shifts the match win probability by about 2 percentage points depending on which side ends up chasing. A pre-toss match price averages both branches, so the toss result itself can create or kill value on the match market.

More toss predictions

All toss predictions → · Full prediction archive →