HH Hobart Hurricanes
MS Melbourne Stars
Big Bash League
Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars Match Prediction
Last updated: 19 January 2026
Team Context and Recent Form
Hobart Hurricanes finished third with 13 points (6-3, 1 NR) and a +0.331 NRR. The defending champions will play at home under captain Nathan Ellis, who has taken 14 wickets this season. Jake Weatherald is set to make his Hurricanes debut after returning from Ashes duty, adding firepower to a top order anchored by Ben McDermott. Spinner Rishad Hossain (13 wickets) provides their main threat with the ball.
Melbourne Stars secured fourth place with 12 points (6-4) and a superior +0.759 NRR. Their bowling attack is the story of the season: Haris Rauf (18 wickets), Peter Siddle (16), Tom Curran (15), and captain Marcus Stoinis (14) give them four genuine match-winners. Stoinis was cleared of a thumb injury and scored 62* off 31 balls when these sides met in December. Glenn Maxwell is due a big score according to teammates.
Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Role | Form |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stoinis (C) | MS | All-rounder | 62* in H2H, 14 wickets, fit after thumb scare |
| Haris Rauf | MS | Pace | 18 wickets - tournament leading |
| Nathan Ellis (C) | HH | Pace | 14 wickets, death bowling specialist |
| Ben McDermott | HH | Batting | 69 in H2H - lone hand in defeat |
| Peter Siddle | MS | Pace | 16 wickets, 3/30 in earlier H2H win |
Our Prediction
Melbourne Stars at 53% confidence. The Stars dominated the earlier meeting this season, winning by 8 wickets with 24 balls to spare. They boast the most potent bowling attack in the competition with four bowlers taking 14+ wickets. The H2H record is commanding: Stars lead 15-8 all-time and have won the last three encounters. While the Hurricanes have home advantage at Ninja Stadium (7:30 PM night game), the Stars' experience in finals and superior bowling depth gives them the edge.
Betting Value
Value: Melbourne Stars at 2.15 (+6.5% edge)
The market has the Hurricanes as favourites at 1.85 (54.1% implied), but we assess the Stars at 53%. This creates significant value on the away side. The Stars' bowling quartet of Rauf, Siddle, Curran, and Stoinis is unmatched in the competition. Stoinis is fit and in form, and Maxwell is overdue for a match-defining knock.
Night conditions at Bellerive can assist seam bowling early, which suits the Stars' pace-heavy attack. The Hurricanes' reliance on Weatherald (untested at this level for them) and McDermott to fire adds uncertainty to their batting.
Stake: 1 unit on Melbourne Stars at 2.15. Solid edge backing the stronger bowling unit in a knockout scenario.
Staking: 1 unit = 1% of your betting bankroll. We recommend 1.5u for edges above 8%, 1u for 5-8%, and 0.5u for edges between 2-5%.
