Vitality Blast
Nottinghamshire vs Leicestershire Prediction & Betting Tips
NOT Nottinghamshire
LEI Leicestershire
Trent Bridge, Nottingham, Nottingham·
🎯 28/39 VB predictions correct⚡ Key Takeaways
- • Nottinghamshire are our pick at 69%, and they are the marginal value side at the best price of 1.54
- • The Outlaws have surged to the top of the North Group on a long winning run, after losing their first three
- • They beat Leicestershire by a record 74 runs a fortnight ago, George Munsey unbeaten on 75 and George Linde blazing 55 off 22
- • The catch: their last two wins came by one run and two runs, so they have been living dangerously
- • Leicestershire have matchwinners in Rehan Ahmed and Ben Mike, but they were bowled out for 135 last time
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Call heads or tails →Nottinghamshire are strong favourites at home.
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How our prediction shifts based on who bats first. Plan your bet before the toss.
- Rehan Ahmed's leg spin: he can rip through a middle order and swing a game on his own
- An early breakthrough against George Munsey, who has carried the Outlaws' batting
- Another tight finish: two of Nottinghamshire's wins have come by a single-figure margin
Our AI model makes Nottinghamshire 68.8% to win, with Leicestershire at 31.2%. The de-vigged market has the Outlaws at around 64%, so our number sits a little higher, and it points to Nottinghamshire as the marginal value side. The reasons for the confidence are easy to see.
Nottinghamshire's case
Few sides in the country are in better rhythm. Nottinghamshire lost their first three games of the campaign and have since surged up the table on a long winning run to top the North Group. George Munsey has been the engine, the Scotland opener stringing together scores of 53, 82 not out, 75 not out and 51, and he had Leicestershire's bowlers on toast a fortnight ago. Alongside him, South African all-rounder George Linde offers late-innings power and useful left-arm spin, while captain Joe Clarke has runs of his own.
The reverse fixture is the headline. On 28 June at Grace Road the Outlaws racked up 209 for 4 and bowled Leicestershire out for 135, a 74-run win that was a record margin in this fixture. Repeat anything close to that and this is a comfortable evening.
Leicestershire's case
Leicestershire are not short of danger, even if the results have not flowed. Rehan Ahmed is a genuine matchwinner with the ball, a Test leg-spinner who can turn a game in a single spell, and he top-scored with 45 in the reverse fixture. Ben Mike gives them power through the middle, Ashton Turner has carried much of the top-order batting, and this is a club with a proud T20 history and three titles to its name.
The problem is consistency, and the manner of that last defeat. Being bowled out for 135 tells its own story, and Leicestershire have not put a settled run of form together this season. To win here they need their big names firing at once, on a ground where the home side rarely gives much away.
Key matchups to watch
George Munsey against the new ball: Munsey has been the difference in Nottinghamshire's run. If Leicestershire can remove him early, they take away the platform that has underpinned the streak.
Rehan Ahmed through the middle overs: Ahmed's leg spin is Leicestershire's most likely route to slowing the Outlaws down. A couple of wickets in the middle overs would change the shape of the innings.
The death overs: Nottinghamshire have won their last two by one run and two runs, defended by George Linde and Mohammad Ali. If it is tight again, nerve at the death decides it.
🤝 Head-to-Head Record
Nottinghamshire won the most recent meeting in emphatic fashion. On 28 June 2026 at Grace Road, they posted 209 for 4 with George Munsey unbeaten on 75 and George Linde smashing 55 from 22 balls, then bowled Leicestershire out for 135, Mohammad Ali taking 3 for 20, to win by 74 runs. It was a record margin for the Outlaws in this fixture, though earlier meetings between the sides have generally been closer.
🏟️ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Trent Bridge in Nottingham hosts this North Group fixture in the Vitality Blast 2026.
- Pitch: Rewards batting first. The side setting a target holds a small edge, so runs on the board carry weight.
- Conditions: A 6:30 PM BST start under lights, with Nottinghamshire chasing an eighth straight win in front of their own crowd.
- Toss: Expect the toss winner to bat, and the swing is a little larger here than at a neutral ground. Our full Trent Bridge, Nottingham toss read — captain's likely choice, dew, chase-rate context — is on the dedicated page.
The factors that decide it
Nottinghamshire have form, momentum and the head-to-head. A side that tops the group on a long winning run and put 209 on this same opponent two weeks ago is operating at a level Leicestershire have not reached this season, and the home surface suits the way the Outlaws bat. That is the case for backing them with confidence.
The one flag is how narrow those recent wins have been. One run past Lancashire and two runs past Durham says Nottinghamshire are winning without always cruising, and a side with Rehan Ahmed and Ben Mike has the tools to make it awkward. That is why the edge is real but not enormous, which is what the numbers reflect.
Our prediction: Nottinghamshire to win at Trent Bridge
We make Nottinghamshire 68.8%, a little ahead of the market's 64%. Form, squad and the reverse result all line up behind the favourites, and only a repeat of one of their nervier finishes, or a Rehan Ahmed special, brings Leicestershire into it. Our number expects Nottinghamshire to keep the streak going.
On the betting, Nottinghamshire are the value side, if a marginal one. That call comes from our model rating their form a touch higher than the market, so by our numbers the best price of 1.54 is a little generous. In pure market terms it sits just inside our de-vigged fair of 1.58, so treat it as a confidence lean rather than a mispriced line, and keep it small.
📊 Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottinghamshire | 68.8% | 64% | 1.54 | 1.58 |
| Leicestershire | 31.2% | 36% | 2.65 | 2.72 |
Marginal value on Nottinghamshire. Our model has the Outlaws at 68.8% against a de-vigged market read of 64%, so by our numbers there is a slim edge on Nottinghamshire at the best price of 1.54. In market terms that price sits just inside the de-vigged fair of 1.58, so this is a confidence lean built on their form rather than a mispriced line. Keep it small, and only back the Outlaws around 1.54 or bigger.
Our model is about five points above the market on Nottinghamshire. The gap comes down to form the price looks slow to fully rate:
- A strong winning run that has carried them to the top of the North Group, a run of results the market has been cautious to price in
- A record 74-run win over this same Leicestershire side only a fortnight ago
- George Munsey's red-hot form at the top of the order gives them a matchwinner the odds do not fully capture
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Nottinghamshire vs Leicestershire?
Our model makes Nottinghamshire favourites at 68.8%, with Leicestershire at 31.2%. Nottinghamshire top the North Group on a strong winning run and beat Leicestershire by 74 runs in the reverse fixture.
Is there a value bet in this match?
Nottinghamshire are the marginal value side. Our model rates them at 68.8% against the market's 64%, so by our numbers the best price of 1.54 is a little generous. In market terms it sits just inside the de-vigged fair of 1.58, so treat it as a confidence lean and keep it small.
What is the toss prediction for Nottinghamshire vs Leicestershire?
Trent Bridge rewards batting first, so the side that sets a target holds a small edge. We expect the toss winner to bat, and the swing is worth about four points either way.
What happened when these teams last met?
On 28 June 2026 at Grace Road, Nottinghamshire made 209 for 4 (George Munsey 75 not out, George Linde 55) and bowled Leicestershire out for 135, Mohammad Ali taking 3 for 20, to win by a record 74 runs.
Where is Nottinghamshire vs Leicestershire being played?
At Trent Bridge in Nottingham, in a North Group fixture of the Vitality Blast 2026. Finals Day is at Edgbaston on 18 July.
What time does this match start?
The match starts at 6:30 PM BST on Friday 10 July 2026, in the North Group of the Vitality Blast 2026.
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