Mumbai Indians Women vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Women Match Prediction

Match Overview

WPL 2026 opens with a blockbuster. Defending champions Mumbai Indians Women host Royal Challengers Bengaluru Women at DY Patil Stadium on January 9. MI-W have won two of the three WPL titles (2023, 2025). RCB-W finished fourth last season—and now face this opener without their most important player.

Team News

The headline: Ellyse Perry has withdrawn from WPL 2026. The Australian all-rounder cited a packed international schedule. Perry scored 972 runs and took 14 wickets across WPL seasons—RCBs most valuable asset. Her replacement is uncapped Indian domestic player Sayali Satghare. That is a massive downgrade.

MI-W retain their championship core: Nat Sciver-Brunt (523 runs, Orange Cap 2025), Amelia Kerr (18 wickets, Purple Cap 2025), captain Harmanpreet Kaur, and veteran pacer Shabnim Ismail. This is the strongest squad in the competition.

Head-to-Head

MI-W lead 4-2 in WPL head-to-head meetings. The defending champions have won every season opener they have played.

Key Stats

MI-W vs RCB-W Toss Prediction

Our toss prediction: toss winner will bowl first. DY Patil Stadium, Navi Mumbai has hosted 70 T20 matches since 2008. The mens T20 numbers are balanced—51 matches with a 51% chase rate. But womens T20 cricket here shows a clear pattern: 13 of 18 matches (72%) won by the chasing team. Add the 19:30 IST start time bringing dew into play, and the decision becomes straightforward. Both Harmanpreet Kaur and Smriti Mandhana have consistently elected to field first in evening WPL matches. Expect the toss-winning captain to bowl without hesitation.

Our Match Prediction

Mumbai Indians Women to win. The defending champions have the superior squad, home advantage, and championship experience. RCB-W losing Perry is the decisive factor—she was their finisher, their middle-over anchor, and their death bowling option. Sayali Satghare cannot replicate that impact.

MI-Ws bowling attack of Kerr, Sciver-Brunt, and Ismail should restrict RCB to under 150. If MI bat first, expect 160+.

Betting Value

Edge: +2.1% | MI-W at 1.67 (implied 59.9%) vs our model 62%

This is a marginal edge—just above our 2% threshold. The market has priced MI-W as favourites but slightly undervalues the Perry withdrawal impact. We are placing a minimum stake (50 INR, 0.5 units) on MI-W.

Risk factors: First match of season brings uncertainty. RCB could surprise if Smriti Mandhana fires. But the structural disadvantage of losing Perry is too significant to ignore.