The Hundred 2026
Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix Prediction & Betting Tips
TR Trent Rockets
BP Birmingham Phoenix
Trent Bridge, Nottinghamยท
๐ฏ 273/474 predictions correctโก Key Takeaways
- โข Trent Rockets predicted to win with 59.1% probability
- โข The reverse fixture argues the other way: Birmingham Phoenix beat Trent Rockets by 10 runs on 24 July 2026
- โข Trent Rockets beat Sunrisers Leeds by 5 runs on 2 August and Manchester Super Giants by 6 wickets on 31 July
- โข Toss call: Field first โ captains winning the toss at Trent Bridge have usually chosen to bowl
- โข Trent Rockets at 1.79 carry a 5.8% edge over our fair 1.69, the best available in this round of fixtures
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๐ช Toss Prediction Simulator
Flip the Coin โ See How Probabilities Shift
Toss is neutral at Trent Bridge, Nottingham
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Call heads or tails โHow batting order moves our Trent Rockets price.
- If Ben Duckett or Finn Allen is unavailable, the hosts lose a top-order gear and the gap narrows by roughly 4 points
- If the ball nips about under Nottingham cloud in the first 25 balls, Ben Dwarshuis and the Phoenix seamers close perhaps 3 points of it
- If rain shortens the game, a 100-ball match compresses further and the result drifts towards a coin toss
Our AI model gives Trent Rockets a 59.1% chance of beating Birmingham Phoenix at Trent Bridge, with the market close behind at 57.8%. There is one fact that argues the other way, and it is a recent one: these sides met on 24 July 2026 and Birmingham Phoenix won by 10 runs. That result is exactly why a home favourite sits at 59% rather than something more comfortable.
Why Trent Rockets are favoured on their own ground
The hosts have been winning matches and winning them differently. They beat Sunrisers Leeds by 5 runs on 2 August, defending. They beat Manchester Super Giants by 6 wickets on 31 July and Welsh Fire by 9 wickets on 29 July, chasing. A side that can win either way is worth more at a ground where the toss decides nothing.
The batting is the reason. Ben Duckett and Finn Allen can take a powerplay away inside twenty balls, Tom Banton and Tim David clear the rope for a living, and Sam Billings keeps wicket and steadies. Mitchell Santner and Matt Henry cover both spin control and new-ball pace.
Birmingham Phoenix under Joe Weatherley have already done it once
The Phoenix are harder to price. They lost to Welsh Fire by 7 wickets on 1 August and to Southern Brave by 12 runs on 30 July, and they are led by Joe Weatherley after the captain originally named for the season withdrew before it began.
What stops this being a straightforward home win is that the same group beat these opponents by 10 runs on 24 July. Rehan Ahmed gives Weatherley a wrist-spinner who takes wickets rather than containing, Mitchell Owen and Donovan Ferreira can both change a chase quickly, and Ben Dwarshuis has the left-arm angle that has troubled this Rockets top order before.
Key Matchups: where the Rockets top order meets Phoenix spin
Ben Duckett vs Rehan Ahmed: Rehan is the Phoenix's wicket-taking option through the middle and Duckett is the batter most likely to attack him. That passage probably sets the total.
Finn Allen vs Ben Dwarshuis: Allen either takes the new ball apart or falls to it, and Dwarshuis angling it across him is the Phoenix's cleanest plan for the first 25.
Mitchell Santner vs Mitchell Owen: Santner's control against a batter who wants to hit through the line is the contest that decides whether the Phoenix middle overs accelerate or stall.
๐ค Head-to-Head Record
The meeting that matters is recent and it belongs to the underdog. On 24 July 2026 Birmingham Phoenix beat Trent Rockets by 10 runs. Ten runs is a real margin in a 100-ball game, not a near miss, and it happened between these exact squads inside the last two weeks.
We are not putting a number on the all-time record, because a reliable count across the competition's history is not something we can stand behind. The 24 July result is dated and first-hand, and does more work than a tally would.
๐๏ธ Venue, Conditions & Toss
Trent Bridge, Nottingham โ a true batting surface with a fast outfield, and one of the grounds where a good total still gets chased down as often as it gets defended.
- Pitch: Chasing and defending have split evenly here in this competition, which is why our scenario map does not move with the batting order.
- Weather: An evening start in Nottingham in August, so some cloud and a little early movement for the seamers are both realistic.
- Toss: Toss call: Field first โ captains winning the toss at Trent Bridge have usually chosen to bowl, and with no chase-or-defend advantage in the numbers there is no reason to argue with them. Our full pre-toss reasoning for TR vs BP โ field first or bat first, and why โ sits on the toss page.
Match Analysis: the passages that decide Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix
The first 25 balls belong to the seamers. If Dwarshuis moves the new ball and removes Duckett or Allen, the Rockets' innings loses the gear that makes them favourites, and the Phoenix have shown on 24 July that they can win from that position.
The middle is Rehan Ahmed's to shape. He is the one bowler on either side who is trying to take wickets rather than survive, and against a Rockets order that scores quickly, wickets are worth more than dots. If he goes at a run a ball without striking, the hosts win comfortably.
The last 25 favour the home side. Tim David and Banton hit the longest, Santner and Henry have the variations, and the Rockets already closed out a defence by 5 runs this month. In a format this short, a side that has won tight finishes recently is the safer bet.
Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix Prediction: why the hosts start favourite
We make it Trent Rockets at 59%, marginally above the market. The reasoning is that they have won recently while both setting and chasing, they bat deeper, and they are at home on a surface that rewards the strokeplay they have.
The case against is the 24 July result, and we have not tried to argue it away. It is the single strongest reason to keep this at 59% rather than nearer 70%, and it is why Birmingham Phoenix at 2.35 are not a silly price even though our model does not quite make them value. Both scenarios land on the same number, so there is no batting order to wait for.
๐ Odds & Betting Value
| Team | Our Model | Market Implied | Best Odds | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Rockets | 59.1% | 57.8% | 1.79 | 1.69 |
| Birmingham Phoenix | 40.9% | 42.2% | 2.35 | 2.44 |
This is the clearest edge on the board today, and it is on the favourite. Our fair price on Trent Rockets is 1.69, and the best available 1.79 is worth 5.8% over that. That clears the threshold where the price is genuinely better than the risk, though it is only worth taking while 1.79 is still showing. At the market average of 1.66 the edge disappears entirely. Birmingham Phoenix at 2.35 sit inside our fair 2.44, so the market has the underdog close to right. Odds captured on 3 August 2026.
Our model is just over a point above the market on Trent Rockets. Where we see value is the gap between the top price and the average, not a disagreement about who wins. The bookmakers and our model agree on the favourite and nearly on the number, so the whole edge here is in shopping the price rather than in taking a view they have missed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix in The Hundred?
Our AI model predicts Trent Rockets to beat Birmingham Phoenix at Trent Bridge on 5 August 2026, with a 59.1% probability. Their batting depth and recent wins both setting and chasing are the main reasons. Birmingham Phoenix are given a 40.9% chance.
What is the toss prediction for Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix?
Our toss call for Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix at Trent Bridge is to field first. Captains winning the toss at this ground have usually chosen to bowl, and chasing and defending have split evenly here, so bowling first costs nothing.
What are the best odds for Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix?
The best available price on Trent Rockets is 1.79 against our fair odds of 1.69, an edge of 5.8%. Birmingham Phoenix's best price of 2.35 is inside our fair 2.44. At the market average of 1.66 on the hosts, the edge disappears.
Who won the last meeting between Trent Rockets and Birmingham Phoenix?
Birmingham Phoenix beat Trent Rockets by 10 runs on 24 July 2026. That recent result between these squads is the main reason our model keeps Trent Rockets at 59% rather than rating them a much heavier favourite.
Who captains Birmingham Phoenix in The Hundred 2026?
Joe Weatherley leads Birmingham Phoenix, having taken over after the captain originally named for the 2026 season withdrew before the competition began. He is supported by Rehan Ahmed and Mitchell Owen among the players available to him.
What is the pitch like at Trent Bridge for The Hundred?
Trent Bridge in Nottingham is a true batting surface with a fast outfield, and in this competition chasing and defending have split evenly there. That balance is why our prediction for this match does not change with the batting order.
How does the toss affect Trent Rockets vs Birmingham Phoenix?
It does not move our number. Whether Trent Rockets or Birmingham Phoenix bat first, our prediction stays at Trent Rockets 59.1%, because Trent Bridge gives neither side a chasing or defending advantage in this competition. You can back this match before the toss.
